burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 @54 still moisture around looks like .20 across most of NC has fallen with snow? Hard to tell but this is trending better. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 big problem for RDU... loss of saturation aloft and a warm nose above 850 mb Yep, I was looking at the soundings...Looks like a warm nose around 800 and 750 mb at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep, and the precip shield is significantly further south, along with dewpoints over RDU at 12z Sunday looked to be about 6F lower than on the 18z. Looks like my reverse thinking of the towel theory is working out. I am digging this run of the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if we can get this cad train to continue this will turn into a very nice winter storm. this run actually cuts off the low up to 700mb which would generate a nice comma head. I like the way you think! By the way you've been on top of it for this system from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This keeps moisture around until 60...Keep this baby trending colder sooner please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 With low level thicknesses crashing like they are, many places may see several hours of a wintry mix of sleet, and snow before completely changing over. Of course, if the mid levels trend any colder, we're looking at several hours of snow. In fact, looking at the RDU sounding it's probably sleet shortly after 21z, changing over to snow by 03z through 09z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM clown map... fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I may have to take back what i said earlier if the GFS looks similar to the NAM at least for the northern foothills from asheville east to statesville north to Boone.. the northern mtns look to do very well verbatim. 6 inches plus... go figure i move to maryland and the snow comes to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Frank Strait on the 0Z NAM "0Z NAM is coming in colder. At least flurries down to I-85 Sunday night if it's right. About a foot of snow in Boone if it's right. Accumulations in the Triad and a little slush in Knoxville if it's right." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Brad Panovich with the RPM model: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=675725&l=362ab0b994&id=162655917140206 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Haven't seen the entire profiles(700-1000mb), but just guessing I would say a general 5-10 in the northern mountains of NC w/ isolated 12 inches. 3-6 in the northern foothills, 4-8 along the nc/va border, 2-4 from gso to rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 With the way the 500mb trough goes negative and the lead vort max tracks towards the SC upstate, you can count on a substantial dry slot working into central NC around lunch time Sunday...then the NAM has the deformation band pivoting through NC and southern VA. Best spots will be the areas just north and west of where that dry slot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice run for NE TN and SW VA. Cold air pours in on the northwest side of the storm. Just one run, but I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I am not liking the column soundings on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
843wx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice run for NE TN and SW VA. Cold air pours in on the northwest side of the storm. Just one run, but I like the trend. Yep. Burkes Garden, Tazewell, and Wise/ Norton look to do really well with this set up. Norton is at around 25 inches for the season so far. Up close to 50 inches for the season at High Knob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Haven't seen the entire profiles(700-1000mb), but just guessing I would say a general 5-10 in the northern mountains of NC w/ isolated 12 inches. 3-6 in the northern foothills, 4-8 along the nc/va border, 2-4 from gso to rdu. so would this give CLT 2-4in too? I'm sure getting optimistic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, that run on Brad's page says 6-8" through Grandfather and Sugar Mountains, Boone, out to Wytheville, VA and down to western Surry County. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=675732&l=fece81f43a&id=162655917140206 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is it realistic to expect any meaningful amount of snow in Central NC? With a Miller B, there's usually a wide corridor of p-types. It seems like snow as the predominate p-type in Central NC is unlikely. But maybe this is an unusual situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does anyone know of any Miller Bs that have produced significant snows in Central NC? It seems like they generally end in screwjobs and I can't really think of any at the moment. I know in the northern Piedmont, we got 1-2" of snow on the front end of the storm (before turning to 33 and rain) during the huge Miller Bs that crushed DCA and the Mid-Atlantic in February 2010. I suppose this Miller B with this one appears to transfer its energy much further south than the ones that hit DCA, though, so that goes in our favor as the WAA does not make it as far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Is it realistic to expect any meaningful amount of snow in Central NC? With a Miller B, there's usually a wide corridor of p-types. It seems like snow as the predominate p-type in Central NC is unlikely. But maybe this is an unusual situation? Looking at thicknesses off the NAM, RDU is at ~1293/1561 at 21z which would equate to sleet and possibly freezing rain (although probably more like a little sleet with a cold rain right at 33F). By 00z, RDU is at ~ 1288/1555, which is probably sleet and potentially a little freezing rain. By 03z, it's all snow and the sounding doesn't dry up completely until after 09z, so I think there is a window of time after 03z for snow to fall at RDU and much of central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 WSOCTV perspective on the system for Charlotte "It still looks like chilly rain Sat. night/Sunday. As the storm pulls away and colder air pours in, a few snow flakes may fly in the Metro. I see NO ACCUMULATION at this point. Stay tuned. ~Steve" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I dont think this is a true Miller B. It may be more of a hybrid. This low is a Gulf Low that moves south of a CAD dome and transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 so would this give CLT 2-4in too? I'm sure getting optimistic now. Looking at CLT soundings, it's cold enough for snow by hr48 on the NAM, but there's only 0.06 after hr48....and more importantly, there's not enough moisture in the snow growth region after the column becomes cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This is looking more and more like a very heavy wet snowfall event for KAVL. I'm working on my writeup right now, but the NAM has made a huge step towards the ECMWF solution tonight. Folks further east aslo have a chance, although boundary layer temps as usual are a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 can't believe no one has posted this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 can't believe no one has posted this yet. Central TN and the northern border counties of the Volunteer state get slammed. Boone - mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looking at thicknesses off the NAM, RDU is at ~1293/1561 at 21z which would equate to sleet and possibly freezing rain (although probably more like a little sleet with a cold rain right at 33F). By 00z, RDU is at ~ 1288/1555, which is probably sleet and potentially a little freezing rain. By 03z, it's all snow and the sounding doesn't dry up completely until after 09z, so I think there is a window of time after 03z for snow to fall at RDU and much of central NC. Gotcha. Thanks for the response. This is certainly going to be an interesting one to follow. I still don't expect more than some light slush here, but we'll see how it trends. I might change my mind tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 With cold air filtering in during the event and lack of pinpoint on exactly where the deformation band sets up...this may end up being a nowcast situation in terms of who gets the sock-it-to-me outside the mts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Does anyone know of any Miller Bs that have produced significant snows in Central NC? It seems like they generally end in screwjobs and I can't really think of any at the moment. I know in the northern Piedmont, we got 1-2" of snow on the front end of the storm (before turning to 33 and rain) during the huge Miller Bs that crushed DCA and the Mid-Atlantic in February 2010. I suppose this Miller B with this one appears to transfer its energy much further south than the ones that hit DCA, though, so that goes in our favor as the WAA does not make it as far north. Yes, Jan 29/30 2010, this event reminds me a lot of that event. That was the event that showed us getting a huge storm up until 48 hours before and than it started trending north and the MA got a bigger event that we did. We still did alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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