rduwx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That sucker looks to be heading more east than north east form 30 - 33. Yeah, it didn't make quite the jump north I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Through 36 hours you can see significant changes in the QPF fields on the NAM. The max is much further south in SC.It almost looks like the QPF will have a hard time moving north of the VA border on this run. We'll see. Note the CAD signature too and the LP jumping to the coast, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the 00z NAM may get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think the 00z NAM may get interesting... Check out that High to our north on it. 1024 sitting right around Michigan and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Check out that High to our north on it. 1024 sitting right around Michigan and Indiana. Yep, and the precip shield is significantly further south, along with dewpoints over RDU at 12z Sunday looked to be about 6F lower than on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You can clearly see how the isobars are hinting at a transfer off the SC coast... Through 36 hours you can see significant changes in the QPF fields on the NAM. The max is much further south in SC.It almost looks like the QPF will have a hard time moving north of the VA border on this run. We'll see. Note the CAD signature too and the LP jumping to the coast, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 TN looks to be getting a whallop on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NAM hr39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 This looks like the morning Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 You can clearly see how the isobars are hinting at a transfer off the SC coast... Right on cue there is the transfer @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Beautiful CAD signature! 32 degree isotherm already inching towards the triad at 18z... Right on cue there is the transfer @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 @45 nothing in the MA...they might get the shaft on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 @42, much more confluence over VA aloft and a lot better CAD signature in place. As others mentioned, the low is transferring to the coast about 100 miles or so southeast of ILM. I think this ends as snow for many in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Beautiful CAD signature! 32 degree isotherm already inching towards the triad at 18z... Things might get very interesting in the next frame for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 As I am screwed out of this system pretty much aside from a possible flurry or 2 near the end, I'm really rooting for you guys in NC. good to see this trending somewhat more favorably. Love to visit the Ski areas out there so Im hoping this storm shows the mountains some love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Nice big dry slot showing up for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 @48 it's extremely close for RDU...they are right on the line at the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 this run levels the northern mountains. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 1320 meter 850-1000 mb thicknesses are all the way down to RDU at hour 42! Someone correct me if I am wrong as I am dealing with a very low resolution image here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 big problem for RDU... loss of saturation aloft and a warm nose above 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Snow in NC for sure CLT west...but moisture is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Light snow falling all over NC/VA... good trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 big problem for RDU... loss of saturation aloft and a warm nose above 850 mb It looked very borderline @48...either way if we can keep a trend going this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 By 48 hrs, GSO close to snow. Low level thicknesses are crashing, but 850-700mb still pretty warm. If this system deepens more rapidly, it would probably help the mid levels to get stronger and pull down colder air faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Could you post a sounding? big problem for RDU... loss of saturation aloft and a warm nose above 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 if we can get this cad train to continue this will turn into a very nice winter storm. this run actually cuts off the low up to 700mb which would generate a nice comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 big problem for RDU... loss of saturation aloft and a warm nose above 850 mb Percip appears to be rather sparse in Central and Eastern NC, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Problems at 48 hours... at 51 hours its all snow for RDU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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