burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ok. I understand that they Euro is painting snow up North. I am just saying that we don't yet know how severe the dry slot will be and how much precip makes it over the mtns. I really hope the Europ does come true though. I think it would accumulate too, but with really low snow to precip ratios. But we are in Feb so hopefully the incoming radiation wont be too bad and give us accumulation. I understand the dry slot argument...just not the soil temp. For instance March 2009 with our ULL had temps in the mid 60's the previous week. We all know how that turned out for the "soil temp" issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z ECMWF Ensemble is actually very similar if not slightly further south than the operational run. At 42 hours the ensemble mean low center is over souther MS just NW of Mobile bay. At 48 hours south-central AL. At 54 hours the mean contour is strung out so it is hard to say exactly where the center is but probably just north or northwest of SAV. At hour 60 is is probably 50-75 milles due east of ILM, due south of HAT. At 66, is is probably 150 miles ESE of HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z ECMWF Ensemble is actually very similar if not slightly further south than the operational run. At 42 hours the ensemble mean low center is over souther MS just NW of Mobile bay. At 48 hours south-central AL. At 54 hours the mean contour is strung out so it is hard to say exactly where the center is but probably just north or northwest of SAV. At hour 60 is is probably 50-75 milles due east of ILM, due south of HAT. At 66, is is probably 150 miles ESE of HAT. Wow...thanks for the info and the great write up. Maybe the miracle can happen and models will start to trend towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z ECMWF Ensemble is actually very similar if not slightly further south than the operational run. At 42 hours the ensemble mean low center is over souther MS just NW of Mobile bay. At 48 hours south-central AL. At 54 hours the mean contour is strung out so it is hard to say exactly where the center is but probably just north or northwest of SAV. At hour 60 is is probably 50-75 milles due east of ILM, due south of HAT. At 66, is is probably 150 miles ESE of HAT. Sounds good! Thanks for the update..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If you wanna know the reason for the massive shift, it relates to my post last night on the model trends. The models split the wave that was supposed to scoot out the southern impulse and phase into a noreaster. Instead it is now well ahead of the southern impulse and is laying down a colder foundationg. Notice the slp ovaer the great lakes in the 18hr ruc image. The gfs was phasing this storm with that earlier in the week. Which was never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM is slightly slower and a touch deeper when compared to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z ECMWF Ensemble is actually very similar if not slightly further south than the operational run. At 42 hours the ensemble mean low center is over souther MS just NW of Mobile bay. At 48 hours south-central AL. At 54 hours the mean contour is pstrung out so it is hard to say exactly where the center is but probably just north or northwest of SAV. At hour 60 is is probably 50-75 milles due east of ILM, due south of HAT. At 66, is is probably 150 miles ESE of HAT. I know the sc coast is pretty much out of play, but what if this puppy trends more towards JAX?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 18z NAm looks slower at hour 36 compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It looked like 2-3 to me, but I don't have access to any raw data. Maybe that is what Larry is basing the approximate 6 inches off of. Yeah, Johnson City is within a 4-8" area and a bit NE from the 4" line..so they're above 4" per the vendor's objective 12Z Euro output. I estimated 6" although it could be more like 4.5-5" to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I understand the dry slot argument...just not the soil temp. For instance March 2009 with our ULL had temps in the mid 60's the previous week. We all know how that turned out for the "soil temp" issue. You are correct in saying that snow can accumulate regardless of soil temperatures prior to the storm. In this case however the window of opportunity for heavy snow is only open for a very short period of time due to it being so progressive. (There is no blocking) If it were to snow for several hours at a high rate there would be a couple of inches perhaps, but in this case the drier air will be pulled into the system pretty quick limiting the period of heavier snow to an hour or maybe two at best outside of the mountains. Regardless of what any model shows from here on out I am going on the record as saying that no one outside of the mountains South of the NC/VA line will see more than 1 inch from this system. The only exception may be the Northeastern part of NC for reasons I stated earlier. A majority will only see some slush in the grassy areas and elevated surfaces if they are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So are you buying it at this point, even half that would be on the far edge of the envelope... I doubt any WFO will latch on at this point and rightfully so until there is better agreement, but you cannot totally discount the Euro at this stage, it handled our non event here last week much better than the americans at this range, NAM/GFS were pretty consistent on 1/2"+ 24-72hrs out, EC was consistent on a trace event, ended up with a couple hundredths... Last year I think we tried to buck it a couple times pinning hopes on clippers that the NAM/GFS showed putting down 1/4-1/2", Euro was dry, and so was the clipper when all was said and done. Cautiously optimistic should be the mood until things come better into focus, continuing trend back towards what we saw last Fri/Sat, funny! As a forecaster, I would go with the dynamic model consensus with a little extra weight given to the Euro considering it's superior data assimilation, resolution, and performance in general. Could the Euro be right? Absoultely, our high-res model which incorporates tamdar data is showing a solution close to the euro although slightly furrther north. It shows several mesoscale bands across the northern NC piedmont where locally 2-4 inches of snow falls. IN the triangle proper it gives us a dusting. We will see what the 18z shows. I like to be trending towards good things as we get within 24-48 hours. We are centrainly not far at least in the modeling world from a significant system now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks for the info! Man I hope Raleigh can get an inch or two out of this system... Princess Leia has something to say for Raleigh snow lovers: Help us, European Ensemble; you're our only hope. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: The 12z ECMWF Ensemble is actually very similar if not slightly further south than the operational run. At 42 hours the ensemble mean low center is over souther MS just NW of Mobile bay. At 48 hours south-central AL. At 54 hours the mean contour is strung out so it is hard to say exactly where the center is but probably just north or northwest of SAV. At hour 60 is is probably 50-75 milles due east of ILM, due south of HAT. At 66, is is probably 150 miles ESE of HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You are correct in saying that snow can accumulate regardless of soil temperatures prior to the storm. In this case however the window of opportunity for heavy snow is only open for a very short period of time due to it being so progressive. (There is no blocking) If it were to snow for several hours at a high rate there would be a couple of inches perhaps, but in this case the drier air will be pulled into the system pretty quick limiting the period of heavier snow to an hour or maybe two at best outside of the mountains. Regardless of what any model shows from here on out I am going on the record as saying that no one outside of the mountains South of the NC/VA line will see more than 1 inch from this system. The only exception may be the Northeastern part of NC for reasons I stated earlier. A majority will only see some slush in the grassy areas and elevated surfaces if they are lucky. Well I for one hope you are wrong and we can end our debate there If you're right you'll have to buy me a plane ticket and a visa so I can come out there and debate you in person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The way this winter has been I will be completely happy with just seeing some flakes fly. I don't really care about accumulations at this point, it would just be nice to see some snow in the sky here in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wow...thanks for the info and the great write up. Maybe the miracle can happen and models will start to trend towards the Euro. I am with you Burger. Maybe my "little bit of waning optimism" may provide the extra mojo we need to at least see a dusting my friend. What a ride huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just typed up some quick afternoon thoughts. See here. Good agreement with 850mb temps too....in fact, the ens mean is a little cooler at 12z Sunday at the VA/NC border than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well I for one hope you are wrong and we can end our debate there If you're right you'll have to buy me a plane ticket and a visa so I can come out there and debate you in person Since when did you need a Visa to the Philippines? Anyway, good luck to the NC posters and maybe you can cash in finally on this event. I have to pull for those guys in Upsate SC too. Next system looks to be cold chasing so good luck on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just typed up some quick afternoon thoughts. See here. Good agreement with 850mb temps too....in fact, the ens mean is a little cooler at 12z Sunday at the VA/NC border than the operational. Read this when you posted on FB Matt. My question, that vort energy on the back side for NC do we want to see it dive further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here is hour 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well I for one hope you are wrong and we can end our debate there If you're right you'll have to buy me a plane ticket and a visa so I can come out there and debate you in person I hope I am wrong too, I never want to see a storm go to waste even if I am not there to witness it. 90% of the fun is in tracking it anyway. As for buying that ticket, I'll have to think about that one for awhile since I am pretty confident that I will be correct. If you are only staying for a couple of weeks you will not need a visa. It's only needed after 21 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The more that secondary vort dives south in the Tennessee Valley, the more precip that gets thrown up into NC later Sunday/ Sunday night. Assuming the cold air behaves as expected, the more precip and digging with that second vort, the better. Read this when you posted on FB Matt. My question, that vort energy on the back side for NC do we want to see it dive further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Congrats to Eastern KY, southern WV and much of southern VA on this NAM run. 6-10 inches it appears. Through hour 57 the NAM is not showing much/any love to NC wrt snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Congrats to Eastern KY, southern WV and much of southern VA on this NAM run. 6-10 inches it appears. Through hour 54 the NAM is not showing much/any love to NC wrt snow. Not much QPF on the NAM out to 57...but each run trends just a tad bit wetter it seems at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, Johnson City is within a 4-8" area and a bit NE from the 4" line..so they're above 4" per the vendor's objective 12Z Euro output. I estimated 6" although it could be more like 4.5-5" to be honest. Thanks, Gawx. They kept pulling my post, but that makes sense. I'm in Kingsport, to the northwest, and the snow gradients can be quite startling even though we are roughly fifteen miles apart. BTW, the ensembles being slightly south is good for those in the northern TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 At hour 60 pretty much a wrap by then - snow depth (on the ground) and then total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here are the last three runs of the NAM and snow fall depth at the same hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I understand the dry slot argument...just not the soil temp. For instance March 2009 with our ULL had temps in the mid 60's the previous week. We all know how that turned out for the "soil temp" issue. I'm not going to go back a forth on historic events and try to make comparisons to this event. All i'm saying is that all we know now is that the soil at near 40 degrees, and to get that down is going to take alot of time, because soil has a higher heat capacity than air temperature. While we might get snow on the ground, radiation being emitted from the earth will cause snow to melt under as snow is falling ultimately lowering ratios. I guess we will see what happens when the low arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here are the last three runs of the NAM and snow fall depth at the same hours.. Looks pretty dadgum consistent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks pretty dadgum consistent to me. Hard to bet against the NAM this close and it being so consistent! ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good run for the NAM at this range, starting to catch onto what the EC got a wif of and not far off from being a whiter solution into much of NC. H5 not as sharp compared to 12z, but still clips the northern part of NC with 546dm heights. HRS 54-60 is probably your best representation of the effect from the piece of energy moving in from TN-NC late. Note the initial wave and primary slp well off the MA coast, a hint of a dryslot to the SE of it, and a second impulse with banding signatures coming back into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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