Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The average temperatures in 2010 was cooler than this year. there was also snow before that video, so one could think that ground temperatures was lower to support snow. In a "Normal" February this storm would be a big deal for most of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. However; as mild as this Winter has been, instead of looking at this as a February 20th storm we should be looking at it being a March 20th storm. Based on the past two months temperatures this is more in line with where we stand at this point, even though we are still in the middle of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro, looks south of 0z run, SLP exiting around Charleston, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 WOW, on the 12z Euro, looks like a 85/40 NW special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 WOW, on the 12z Euro, looks like a 85/40 NW special. Euro puts down close to half a foot at HKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have a feeling were going to be hearing how the Euro initialized wrong and to throw it out. If it shifted 20 miles SE it be a majority of NC winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just doesn't seem to be any moisture to go with the cold at 72 Moisture is likely gone by midnight monday, maybe into the early morning hours. I would not use the the 2mT map though to draw any conclusions about cold. Soundings are obviously your best tool and thickness plots usually paint a fairly accurate picture in NC for p-type issues. Even then, I agree, it is not encouraging and keep in mind the graphic below if qpf for the 6 hr period prior to, and thickness valid at the t-stamp. There is likely to be a back end slug of moisture associated with the trailing vort, you can see the GFS in addition to the other guidance picking up on it in southern VA and NE NC. Another thing to keep in mind is when the wind switches around to the NNE sometimes the moisture into the northern coastal plain can be enhanced from the Albemarle sound. You normally need a pretty good amount of cold wrapping in on the backside for that to happen, which is not the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would guess RDU is probably 2-3", GSO/INT - 4-5", CLT 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro is def. a good run but it's pretty much on an island....hope it's picking up something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would guess RDU is probably 2-3", GSO/INT - 4-5", CLT 1-3". Winston could be mostly, if not all snow, this run. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Didn't need to research that. Common sense would tell you the same thing. Never-the-less it will cover and will accumulate if the snow rate is heavy enough. The bottom inch or so will be slush and snow will accumulate on top of it. Back in the late 90's we had a period of thundersnow. Only under the highest dbz was it snowing and locations all around us had rain. We picked up 3-4 inches with surface temps in mid 30's in just about an hour and a half. It covered the roads and caused lots of wrecks. Most wrecks were caused by the extreme slushiness of the roads more than the slickness of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro, looks south of 0z run, SLP exiting around Charleston, SC. North of there, likely around Myrtle Beech best I can tell. Close to a nice hit for the triangle, certainly an advisory level run based on the map at 66hrs, precip does not get much farther north than southern va, MA sub likely going neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro is def. a good run but it's pretty much on an island....hope it's picking up something right. I am guessing this run is better for Tennessee brothers and sisters too, but I don't have a lot of access currently. Track "sounds" good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I am guessing this run is better for Tennessee brothers and sisters too, but I don't have a lot of access currently. Track "sounds" good. It's close the one problem though is thickness...might be a very cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Winston could be mostly, if not all snow, this run. Crazy. Well if it trends this way I may stay with my GF up there. Even CLT might be able to eek out a quick inch or two on this run. Will def. be a fun Euro snowfall map per Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry SE brothers and sisters, surface temps will be a major issue East of the Apps.. even with the track will be a cold rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and BOOM goes the Euro... hr.60 hr 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry SE brothers and sisters, surface temps will be a major issue East of the Apps.. even with the track will be a cold rain for most. Agreed. Also the storm is so progressive it doesn't give anyone much hope for accumulations even if there is a changeover to snow at some point. The track on the Euro is about the only thing going for it. Other than that everything is stacked against accumulating snow outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and BOOM goes the Euro... Another southward shift with something like that and it could put many southern NC piedmont and extreme Upstate SC areas in a couple of inches of snow. Something to watch to see if other modeling depict something of similar fashion in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This run changes over almost all of NC to SN on the back side, maybe even to the coast. Hard to tell based on my course maps, Allan or someone else with sounding data would be able to paint a better picture, but RDU would changeover after 7pm Sunday, GSO would likely be in SN during the late afternoon. Likely several hours worth, 4 maybe 6 hrs in the triangle, more towards the west, even here it is at-least a couple hours of SN. Probably the best possible solution one could have imagined at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 European run shifted south and a couple hours slower with the surface storm, and sped up the high pressure wedging down the Apps. I don't know if its right, its against the majority, and to be splitting that 6 hour window is crucial as I mentioned on my page. It literally makes a huge difference on P-types. If that run is correct, most of northern NC will get a nice snowfall (not sure about accumulations as its a lot of daytime event), but snow falling atleast, and probably a good snowstorm for Hickory, Winston and Greensboro and maybe eventually RDU and northeast NC night time since it appears to wrap up. In fact northeast NC may have the benefit of darkness and a steepening low pressure , so wouldnt' be surprised at something major coastal Va, NC. Same for TN and southern KY, southern VA as the cold arrives on both sides of the Apps 6 hours earlier on this run. Definitely more Wintery look and supressed. This run doesn't go into West Va or central Va much. We'll see if 18z trends south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry SE brothers and sisters, surface temps will be a major issue East of the Apps.. even with the track will be a cold rain for most. keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Per 12Z Doc in NC: 4" and 2" lines both ~100 miles south of the 0Z Doc's lines. Knoxville gets about 3" both runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The surface temp is right at 32 for Hickory while the precip is overhead. The 850s are cold enough on this EURO run for the entire event too. I'm not sure about levels above that. The Wundermap is a fantastic resource for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yep, Chattanooga will be hosed. Every wind direction with a northerly component is downslope. In an already marginal (no, definitely too warm) situation that downslope will kill it (uh, nail in the coffin; already dead). MRX is right on! Nashville is just talking about the Cumberland Plateau, which is game Sunday, but Euro still (wrongly?) tries to ding BNA proper. Memphis bit hard on a couple overnight runs, but even the 12Z Euro punted except flurries. Knoxville depends on wind shift time; NE is downslope but NW is up. I'll sell sticking snow in Knox due to temps. However I'd only fcst 1" up in the Tri Cities. That covers Tenn. Honestly given how warm air tends to fill the valley in situations like this, I'll be surprised if anyone in east TN south of Knoxville even sees a flake. Accumulations seem out of the question outside of NE TN without a substantial change in the low track. GSP disco posted earlier on this page mentions a strange ending as FZDZ in the higher mountains due to dry air aloft. They must be thinking moist part of upslope flow so shallow that it decouples from crystal generation zone. I've seen that even in "good" ski areas like Colorado, but not near a synoptic system. Once the mountains finally change over, I'd say snow till the end. That being said, GSP has been keying in on the warm-nose aloft since yesterday and they are right about it delaying initial change to snow even in the mountains. Models all giving Piedmont a little snow at the end, but I would caution. A local black hole is possible, somewhere, while energy transfers from Tenn Valley to Coast. translated......... dry slot in the piedmont! TW Finally I'll say Brier Creek is bigger than me; not sure I'd apologize for stating facts and trying to prevent suicides, lol. I think people finally let go of the CAD fantasy once hope could be pinned on the comma head. OK, maybe a cold rain CAD but no prayer for winter precip in WAA zone. No prayer of dynamic change either. Models have been known to miss that iff already borderline (546 thick). This is 552+ and; oh heck with that! Pattern recognition: It is nearly tropical in NC and even VA as I write! Zero cold air source for winter CAD or a cold enough start for dyno. Cold will get into VA early, but not NC. Comma head prayers. I want to end positive. It is the weekend, for some a 3-day. Take a trip to the mountains if you can, and enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SE KY looks to be a big winner in this looking @ model consensus. The Nam totally dumps on them. Interesting, the NAM has a typical 1-2 degree warm bias at this juncture but, the GFS is presenting the warmer outcome here. Could possibly be a timing thing as NAM is quicker than the GFS with system overall progression. Although, it does appear that since the tweak to correct the GFS cold bias,it now has somewhat of a warm bias in the short range. I think I would lean toward the NAM here, just looking @ the setup. This may be one of those times where SE KY gets plastered while adjacent areas across the mountains in SWVA gets much less or much more in the way of a cold rain. IF NE windflow occurs throughout as depicted by much of the guidance, downsloping might be an issue off the High Knob landform in far SWVA as opposed to some upslope or neither over in SEKY. I've saw this many times. i.e.; Harlan and Middlesboro would get plastered while Jonesville to Gate city got very little in the way of snowfall. So, in a nutshell, as far as the SE/KY , SW/VA , NE/TN area, right now it looks like the above mentioned scenario is likely, where an area north and west of a line along the VA/KY border across most of Wise CO, Va/Russel and northern Washington County, VA would get the heavy snowfall. i.m.o.. Hopefully, we get more of a northerly wind trajectory, or more cold advection than advertised and areas south and east of that line can get in on the heavy duty white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed. Also the storm is so progressive it doesn't give anyone much hope for accumulations even if there is a changeover to snow at some point. The track on the Euro is about the only thing going for it. Other than that everything is stacked against accumulating snow outside of the mountains. If you look at the video I posted we received a dusting with just moderate off and on snow in March at 33 when it was around 55 for the week before. Now the roads might not take to it to well but if we got .3 or .4 of heavy rates how would it not accumulate? I just don't get that logic. Just verbatim on the Euro, how would you not get accumulations outside of the roads in say GSO or Winston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just trying to keep it realistic for everyone. Yes the mountains could do well with this setup, but remember the precip will be during the day, the soil temps are high, the sun angle is high, and most importantly the EURO is not in line with GFS and NAM . The EURO is a great mid-llong range model, but short range not so much. keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just trying to keep it realistic for everyone. Yes the mountains could do well with this setup, but remember the precip will be during the day, the soil temps are high, the sun angle is high, and most importantly the EURO is not in line with GFS and NAM . The EURO is a great mid-llong range model, but short range not so much. But you said it would be a cold rain per the Euro...that's the problem, when the Euro doesn't say that at all especially based on the word of those with access to soundings. By the way I agree, the Euro is on an island right now...however you can't say it shows cold rain for everyone east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re-read my post i never said per Euro, I am thinking on more of a model consensus. The Euro does indeed show some nice accums for the I-40 corridor. BTW looking at the GSP AFD and the point forecasts for even the mtns,, imagine if the EURO verified it is 360 different from their current forecast and would catch many off guard But you said it would be a cold rain per the Euro...that's the problem, when the Euro doesn't say that at all especially based on the word of those with access to soundings. By the way I agree, the Euro is on an island right now...however you can't say it shows cold rain for everyone east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Tell that to Morristown. They still think we won't get any accumulations. I hate to be in disagreement with some well known mets, but i do not see a significant snowfall in east or northeast TN. I agree that 1 inch at KTRI is possible, but not probable. There is a distinct warm nose that is depicted on the modeling and that warm nose absolutely loves to hang on. I don't see any reason to be against it. For TN my call is: Nashville - inch or less Knoxville - 1/2 inch or less Cookeville and Crossville - 2-4 inches Tricities - inch or less Chattanooga - 0 East TN mountains - 1-2, another 1 possible in backlash/upslope Big winners west of the apps - southeastern/eastern KY, southwest Virginia (4-6 inches, locally 8) As for NC, I have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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