burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey check that out @138 - 141 here comes to cold to chase away all the moisture. Gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Still plenty of time for this to trend colder, I think. Could be wishful thinking, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, the 6z DGEX did bring heavy snowfall accumulations down to about Charlotte. I'm not sure what he's talking about. The amounts were around 6" in the city and 6"+ nw of 85. Robert said last night the DGEX was showing 31 inches for Greensboro! We both cracked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Classic track for interior SE snowfall on the 12z GFS. But, alas, very warm. It isn't classic for places like N AL/N GA/N SC, whose classic track is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Wow! That's plain ugly duck weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 we seem to be getting closer on the storms that never pan out, hopefully we will luck up before its all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Close but no cigar... Nothing like 6z no surprise, if anything, a split between the 0z Euro/GFS. Richmond is on the northern fringe, nice to see a hp over the lakes again, just need that to trend stronger which is in no way out of the realm since yesterday most of te guidance had a weak disturbance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 not looking good when euro and gfs are both trending where we don't want. May have hope if it was just one but euro started inland and now gfs starting to change as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Total precip on 12z GFS run between 1.5 and 1.75 inches over CLT metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 not looking good when euro and gfs are both trending where we don't want. May have hope if it was just one but euro started inland and now gfs starting to change as well The GFS is far from a trend inland. Just 6 hours ago it had it suppressed down into Florida. Also Euro hasn't trended either, just one run. Let's give it at least until Thursday before making any judgement on trends. GFS is also a good track for your back yard just no cold air in place to lock down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Total precip on 12z GFS run between 1.5 and 1.75 inches over CLT metro area. Yep major dump of qpf...in line with 00z runs last night. We just need that cold air to get here dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 cold as portrayed has always been marginal (at best). In the end, that will probably be our undoing for this storm. Even with what appears to be a great track for eastern TN and western NC we can't even spot snow for the mountains. Perhaps future runs will trend toward more cold. If it's going to start trending, 3-4 days out is usually the time we see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I most are giving too much weight to the latest GFS/euro. The GFS went to nice hit, to too far south, to too warm. I think this is just classic flip flopping by the model. Bottom line is there is a decent hp over the lakes and lp down south - what's not to like. I think we still need to give it time. As for the euro, one flip from storm to warm is not a trend. If it is yet again warm @ 12z, then yes there's a trend. Give it some more time. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gotta look at the features aloft... So far in examining this potential storm we have all worried about the timing of the southern stream. Unfortuantely the 12z GFS shows a lack of a 50/50 low in Canada. SO in reality the roles are reversed...southern streams looks healthy, northern stream is the problem. Just check out the differences in Southeast Canada between 0z and 12z. runs... 0z 132 hours... 12z at 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The reality is "it's too early to worry about temps" and "the setup is right, don't sweat the details" is almost always code for: "No model is showing enough cold air," which happens to be the case with this system. Is there a chance? Sure. But outside of the mountains and northern foothills of NC, I'd say accumulating snow is a 2 out of 10 shot at best. Still, that's better than the ZERO we've experienced all winter. Still hoping for a miracle to save this God-forsaken winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 cold as portrayed has always been marginal (at best). In the end, that will probably be our undoing for this storm. Even with what appears to be a great track for eastern TN and western NC we can't even spot snow for the mountains. Perhaps future runs will trend toward more cold. If it's going to start trending, 3-4 days out is usually the time we see that. i am not optimistic at all for most of us this weekend. if yesterday/last night is any indication then once again that the temps stop falling just above freezing giving us more cold rain. with all the cold earlier in the winter in canada and alaska its frustrating that we are just a few degrees too warm. the marginal cold this year has been irritating to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Good point -- I was just noticing the 12 Canadian does the same thing -- much weaker 50/50 low. Gotta look at the features aloft... So far in examining this potential storm we have all worried about the timing of the southern stream. Unfortuantely the 12z GFS shows a lack of a 50/50 low in Canada. SO in reality the roles are reversed...southern streams looks healthy, northern stream is the problem. Just check out the differences in Southeast Canada between 0z and 12z. runs... 0z 132 hours... 12z at 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm hoping the lack of a 50/50 low on the 12z is a hiccup... That said, it would not shock me if the Euro creeps a little farther north in the 12z...If it remains the same then maybe it is just a hiccup by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW, Canadian 12z @ 120HR has a 1032mb HP parked over the lakes with a 1004mb LP near Panama City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Canadian -- warmer, slower, southern stream stronger, 50/50 much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 actually, at 120 hours the GGEM looks a little more encouraging than the GFS. It has a 1004 LP over the FL Panhandle with a 1032 HP centered near International Falls, MN. The southern vort is also taking on a neutral/negative tilt and the critical thicknesses are closer to the VA/NC border. The 132 and 144 hour maps could prove interesting, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL -- just looked at 12z GFS sounding for Shelby -- never gets below 43F while precip is falling. EDIT: Seriously, whens the last time we trended 12 degrees colder in the 4-5 day range? I'm not saying it's impossible, but there is as good a chance that this trends even warmer as anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 A very nice 1.5-2" of rainfall for SE GA from this system, which the 12Z Goofy shows, would be very welcome in this drought plagued area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Warning: 12Z Goofy ensemble is running on physics and other things that are brand new to the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For a classic interior SC,GA type snowfall we would definitely want this to take a Central FL track while it rapidly deepens,. NC would get some too, but the moisture would be limited for them unless it bombs off the coast. The closer the low is to you the more WAA you deal with and thus, the cold is gone. For NC, the low needs to track around 100 miles+ further South to give them a good wallop. The lack of cold air in place before the system so it can "throw moisture up into cold air" doesn't look too well for anyone though. It's not until the Sunday time-frame so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ukmet is very weak and ots. I'm not even sure it has a storm.... The 500mb wave gets completely squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 actually, at 120 hours the GGEM looks a little more encouraging than the GFS. It has a 1004 LP over the FL Panhandle with a 1032 HP centered near International Falls, MN. The southern vort is also taking on a neutral/negative tilt and the critical thicknesses are closer to the VA/NC border. The 132 and 144 hour maps could prove interesting, perhaps. 12z Canadian @ 132HR. 1030mb HP over Iowa. 997mb off NC coast. First time I've seem a 1030mb HP modeled during this timeframe. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The reality is "it's too early to worry about temps" and "the setup is right, don't sweat the details" is almost always code for: "No model is showing enough cold air," which happens to be the case with this system. Is there a chance? Sure. But outside of the mountains and northern foothills of NC, I'd say accumulating snow is a 2 out of 10 shot at best. Still, that's better than the ZERO we've experienced all winter. Still hoping for a miracle to save this God-forsaken winter. Exactly. And "evaporational cooling", and "pulling down cold air" is another two code words for not cold enough. I'll give the Euro a chance. If it's still warm I'm moving on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ukmet is very weak and ots. I'm not even sure it has a storm.... The 500mb wave gets completely squashed. Just saw that, thought I was missing something, but you are right, UKMET pretty much looses any gulf low and no real surface reflection off the SE coast, at least per the crappy meteociel maps. Canadian is very close if not a NE NC - SE VA thump between 126 & 138. Sent from my iPhone 4S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Exactly. And "evaporational cooling", and "pulling down cold air" is another two code words for not cold enough. I'll give the Euro a chance. If it's still warm I'm moving on.... Cool, be sure to check back Friday in the remote chance something changes... Sent from my iPhone 4S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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