Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I agree. I think people are getting overly excited seeing the soundings for their area and looking at snowfall accumulation maps. Even though the trend looks good, the situation has not changed, and that is there is no cold air in place in front of the storm and we are relying on cold air to catch up with the moisture. As everyone here in the Southeast knows this rarely works out. I can probably count on one hand how many times it actually resulted to anything significant in the Northern Piedmont of NC. The most likely outcome based on real life experience is that there will be a band of heavy wet snow that develops as the cold catches up with the moisture and the storm is pulling away. While it will be pretty to look at the result will likely be a slushy accumulation in grassy areas outside of the mountains. This is how these situations play out 95% of the time in this area so why would this be any different. I have to always remind myself that the snowfall accumulation maps are rarely accurate as they can give a lot of false hope. I still doubt anyone outside of the mountains and South of Virginia will see anything significant in the way of accumulating snow from this. That being said, it will still be the biggest event for Northern NC so far this season, which isn't that difficult to accomplish. I think you hit the nail on the head. Any other winter this would be a big disappointment, but a few hours of seeing some snow and slushy accumulation in the grass sounds like a big win for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm pulling for the Euro/Canadians to be right this time. Those two look pretty good for Tennessee and at least a good portion of Western/NW North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 6z NAM was a little better for MBY...but that aint saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Again, probably grasping at straws here but the SREF has been trending colder near the end of our storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 While we may not see any snow in RDU, I am happy to see the rain, especially in the eastern part of NC. We really need this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 HPC's latest thought on snow... http://www.daculaweather.com/hpc_prob_snow_disco.php I never knew that discussion existed until the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 HPC's latest thought on snow... http://www.daculawea..._snow_disco.php I never knew that discussion existed until the other day. ...DAY 3... ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES... WELL-ADVERTISED WINTER WEATHER EPISODE FOR THE EAST CENTRAL US...AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE OUTER BANKS. THE 4-8 INCH SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF H7 LOW TRACK ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. DOWNWIND LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE 4+ INCHES INCLUDE MARYLAND...EASTERN VIRGINIA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WITH POTOMAC BASIN AND DELMARVA ACCUMULATIONS SUPPORTED BY RATHER LONG-DURATION H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS AND BANDED COLD-SECTOR PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COMMA-HEAD/DEFORMATION SHIELD. GENERALLY SPEAKING...AN 'ALL-DAY' SNOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...INCLUDING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...THE POTOMAC BASIN...DELMARVA AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE AS SURFACE CYCLONE RACES EASTWARD ACROSS OUTER BANKS. A RATHER MARGINAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW H85 ON SUNDAY FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNED WITH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL BELOW 1000FT MSL AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SNOWFALL RATE EXCEEDING THE MELTING RATE THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have posted this morning's video and discussion on the blog.... see it here. Not going to rehash all of what I typed there, but the big thing to key on is that separate piece of upper level energy diving into the backside of the system Sunday. It is much more pronounced on the non-GFS models, and that is what keeps the precip going much longer on many other non-GFS models Sunday afternoon/ evening. As I said on the blog, this isn't a cold chasing the precip scenario per se....it is a separate piece of energy diving in, keeping the precip going after the cold is settling in. You can see the vort clearly on the Euro chart below...in western TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That almost- always present jump north in the modeling in the 11th hour before systems always sticks in my head. Possible. FWIW- Per JB this morning, he still thinks the slp will be north of the models (Knoxville to Elizabeth city) instead of Atlanta to south of cape Hatteras? He likes the JMA track! So no snow in NC on his maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have posted this morning's video and discussion on the blog.... see it here. Not going to rehash all of what I typed there, but the big thing to key on is that separate piece of upper level energy diving into the backside of the system Sunday. It is much more pronounced on the non-GFS models, and that is what keeps the precip going much longer on many other non-GFS models Sunday afternoon/ evening. As I said on the blog, this isn't a cold chasing the precip scenario per se....it is a separate piece of energy diving in, keeping the precip going after the cold is settling in. You can see the vort clearly on the Euro chart below...in western TN. Great disco Matt, also saw you posted the RPM on Facebook...matches up well with last nights Euro snowfall map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 As always Matt, A great post of up coming weather. That almost- always present jump north in the modeling in the 11th hour before systems always sticks in my head. Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That almost- always present jump north in the modeling in the 11th hour before systems always sticks in my head. Possible. Yep, that's been my worry all the time. To close to call for N.Foothills right now, But if I had to place a bet it def would be cold rain.. BTW- Great disco this morning!!! Lots going on to say the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I like the EURO/NAM/CMC tracks/ideas. I think the GFS is too far north, and while I really like JB, I think he is on CRACK with this one. TN/KY and VA will do the best with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I love how JB latches onto the craziest scenario if it brings I-95 snow. How many storms can you remember tracking from Knoxville to Elizabeth City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks for the kind words guys. This will be fun to watch, even if it ends up as rain. The meteorology at work here is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this is discouraging knowing how great the track is looking that we don't have some cold air to tap in to. it would be a big hit for the mtns of NC, SC, and N. GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I have posted this morning's video and discussion on the blog.... see it here. Not going to rehash all of what I typed there, but the big thing to key on is that separate piece of upper level energy diving into the backside of the system Sunday. It is much more pronounced on the non-GFS models, and that is what keeps the precip going much longer on many other non-GFS models Sunday afternoon/ evening. As I said on the blog, this isn't a cold chasing the precip scenario per se....it is a separate piece of energy diving in, keeping the precip going after the cold is settling in. You can see the vort clearly on the Euro chart below...in western TN. Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner!! Excellent discussion and great addition to this board! We REALLY have to watch that separate piece of energy. Those things can be quite the power packs and can give many surprise hefty winter weather. Now, I'm not saying this is going to be the case, but I think someone along and just north of GSO to Ric is going to get a good thump of snow. I'm predicting the NWS is going to play big time catch up with this system(s). One thing for sure, it's fun to track and watch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great disco Matt, also saw you posted the RPM on Facebook...matches up well with last nights Euro snowfall map... MHX (Morristown) pretty much thinks that there is no chance at snow except for the highest elevations. Yet, Nashville thinks that there's a good chance at a wintry mix for the entire eastern part of the state. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The only thing I can add after looking at all the modeling is this. When we are within 48-72 hours of the event and there is still considerable spread there is usually a surprise or two. This one certainly isn't cut and dry. Hopefully the surprises are in our favor and not against us. Would be nice to see the 12z guidance come in a little colder yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 MHX (Morristown) pretty much thinks that there is no chance at snow except for the highest elevations. Yet, Nashville thinks that there's a good chance at a wintry mix for the entire eastern part of the state. Go figure. I think there is a pretty good chance at snow for Nashville north into the plateau north of I-40. Certainly eastern KY sees a nice snow as does western and southwestern VA. As for east TN, even the Euro shows a warm nose holding strong even up into KTRI. For that reason, I am not very optimistic up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think there is a pretty good chance at snow for Nashville north into the plateau north of I-40. Certainly eastern KY sees a nice snow as does western and southwestern VA. As for east TN, even the Euro shows a warm nose holding strong even up into KTRI. For that reason, I am not very optimistic up this way. Possibly, but I wouldn't be surprised if a deformation band set up on the back side for East TN (as it has done many times before with systems like these, and as it's shown up in a few later model runs). I won't be hiking back up to Mt. Leconte to see snow though even though I think it probably will snow a good bit up there. The last time I was walking through snow from an arctic front and it was dry and powdery. I don't want to hike ten miles in heavy wet snow instead. I still think there could be surprises in our favor and if not both of us could make a short trip up on I81 or I75 and see a bit of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks! Yeah, this one is definitely a fun one to watch. If you love the weather, you've got to enjoy watching this. Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner!! Excellent discussion and great addition to this board! We REALLY have to watch that separate piece of energy. Those things can be quite the power packs and can give many surprise hefty winter weather. Now, I'm not saying this is going to be the case, but I think someone along and just north of GSO to Ric is going to get a good thump of snow. I'm predicting the NWS is going to play big time catch up with this system(s). One thing for sure, it's fun to track and watch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In both the RPM and Euro snow maps there appears to be the "snow shadow" in the immediate lee of the Apps. That's the worst part about living here. As soon as those winds shift to being out of the NW, downsloping just absolutely kills the moisture transport. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like 12z NAM has trended a little more north on this run. Edit: ok a good bit north. I don't like the way this run is going for folks in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like 12z NAM has trended a little more north on this run. I was see that at 36 hours; but it looks the high has shifted faster towards the east. Still not sure how this will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like 12z NAM has trended a little more north on this run. It's actually a little slower and further southwest at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's actually a little slower and further southwest at 36. I agree...the only thing that has shifted north is that northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks almost identical when comparing 42 hr 12z NAM with the 48 hr 6z NAM - 1 less mb on the low, but really close to its previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks almost identical when comparing 42 hr 12z NAM with the 48 hr 6z NAM - 1 less mb on the low, but really close to its previous run The only major difference I see is the separation of that energy on the back side it doesn't quite phase as much, but that's probably just splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 @54 NAM shows two LPs on this system. Have we seen that in any prior runs? Edit: Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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