beanskip Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Plymouth -- unless I'm going crazy (somewhat likely) at 72 hours the 850 0c line runs from the extreme SE coast of Va. east of Raleigh to just East of CLT, then hugs the N.C./SC border before diving into N. Ga. Central VA? No clue, have not looked... Where you seeing it Just deleted an accuwx map, copyright or not, please keep the accuwx graphics off this site, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That looks to be almost exactly where the 850 line is on the 0z gfs @ 72 hrs. EDIT: We need it to be there at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That looks to be almost exactly where the 850 line is on the 0z gfs @ 72 hrs. Pretty darn close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That looks to be almost exactly where the 850 line is on the 0z gfs @ 72 hrs. EDIT: We need it to be there at hr 60. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS Ensemble mean looks ever so slightly southeast of the 0z GFS but about the same speed as the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Pretty darn close: Anyone know why this model is putting this solution out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Anyone know why this model is putting this solution out there? All that map is showing is a comparison between 0z ukie and 0z gfs 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check out the rgem precip type loop, it has updated with the 0z Canadian after 48 hrs. This has been the bullish model in terms of cold and sm potential. With that said, matches up with the ukme in taking it through southern va, Mt Airy and areas south along 77 get a couple hours, RAH maybe an our or so after changeover. WFO RAH would likely be able to get by with advisories for the boarder counties. Expect watches to be hoisted with the afternoon packages for a good chunk of central/southern va tomorrow. May shift another 50 miles, but the line is pretty much set. Hillsborough in Iso's backyard may be good for a couple, even Roanoke Rapids. RDU is likely just south of any accumulation, here, I will be hard pressed to see a few dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Although it looks better than the 12z Ukie run the moisture if mostly gone by 72 hours I believe for most of us below the VA border but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Check out the rgem precip type loop, it has updated with the 0z Canadian after 48 hrs. This has been the bullish model in terms of cold and sm potential. With that said, matches up with the ukme in taking it through southern va, Mt Airy and areas south along 77 get a couple hours, RAH maybe an our or so after changeover. WFO RAH would likely be able to get by with advisories for the boarder counties. Expect watches to be hoisted with the afternoon packages for a good chunk of central/southern va tomorrow. May shift another 50 miles, but the line is pretty much set. Hillsborough in Iso's backyard may be good for a couple, even Roanoke Rapids. RDU is likely just south of any accumulation, here, I will be hard pressed to see a few dendrites. From what I'm seeing today, I think RDU will see a mixed bag of stuff prior to a change over to SN at the end. Like you I don't expect it to mount up to much but it'll be nice to see some wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This frame shows a very hefty Deform band back over ETN/WNC/ SWVA. If it would hold together after the pivot and sweep east alot of folks would be in business. However Deform bands are tricky and usually just sit statinoary and burn themselves out alot of times. Frame prior shows a Carolina split with the qpf. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This frame shows a very hefty Deform band back over ETN/WNC/ SWVA. If it would hold together after the pivot and sweep east alot of folks would be in business. However Deform bands are tricky and usually just sit statinoary and burn themselves out alot of times. Frame prior shows a Carolina split with the qpf. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_072.jpg This gives you a good view of it - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro trends colder...warmest 850 temp at HKY is 2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0Z Doc says major snow for you much of TN including Nashville with ~5" there. Edit: 2-4" northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro 72 Looks like a big rainstorm east of Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z Euro on WunderMap looks a bit warm and dry towards the end. Yes, 850s eventually crash, but most of the precip is gone by then. Even the precip that makes it to 72 is on the fairly light side. 2m temps take even longer to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 What areas of northern NC (ie, cities) are covered by this 2-4" ? Just north of Asheville (2") to HKY (2") to Greensboro metro (2-3") to E of Roanoke Rapids (3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Snowfall maps give 1-3 to most of the Triangle and 2-3 to the Triad. Cutoff in the Triangle seems to be Raleigh, south of the city gets some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z Euro on WunderMap looks a bit warm and dry towards the end. Yes, 850s eventually crash, but most of the precip is gone by then. Even the precip that makes it to 72 is on the fairly light side. 2m temps take even longer to drop. Agreed. Air probably reaches saturation really quickly, causing the temp to stay at a standstill. I'm not worried about the precip yet with the models working out the energies still. I know everyone is really glad and all that the low is slowing down on the Euro and all But that will only raise the dew point more, which inevitably will make it ALOT harder for temps to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed. Air probably reaches saturation really quickly, causing the temp to stay at a standstill. I'm not worried about the precip yet with the models working out the energies still. I know everyone is really glad and all that the low is slowing down on the Euro and all But that will only raise the dew point more, which inevitably will make it ALOT harder for temps to drop. This isn't a dynamic situation like we have with some ****ty in-situ CAD setup. The 850 low passes by and winds aloft and at the surface become northerly, bringing in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This isn't a dynamic situation like we have with some ****ty in-situ CAD setup. The 850 low passes by and winds aloft and at the surface become northerly, bringing in cold air. I never said that. regardless. If the cold air come from behind, it's going to take longer for temps to come down with the dew points being as high as they are. Everyone here knows that it will get cold. But i'm just saying when the precip is falling, that temps will not drop fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I never said that. regardless. If the cold air come from behind, it's going to take longer for temps to come down with the dew points being as high as they are. Everyone here knows that it will get cold. But i'm just saying when the precip is falling, that temps will not drop fast enough. They won't fall as fast as if we had evaporational cooling, sure, but the temps will already be chilly by Sunday afternoon. They only have to drop a few degrees and the Euro wants to drop them pretty quickly, although the timing with the precip is still a bit on the crappy side. The models are certainly dropping them faster than they were even this morning. Will the trend continue? I don't know. In any case, I don't think your problem has merit. Think about the Christmas storm last year. When the 850mb low moved through, the temps dropped just fine, and that was after rain during the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 After reviewing the EURO, and the recent trends in models, I would go with some slushy accumulation esp. west or north as one approaches Virginia. Just my take so far...may be a bit overdone. "Meh" for Winston south and or east. *2 days of model watching to go tho' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 They won't fall as fast as if we had evaporational cooling, sure, but the temps will already be chilly by Sunday afternoon. They only have to drop a few degrees and the Euro wants to drop them pretty quickly, although the timing with the precip is still a bit on the crappy side. The models are certainly dropping them faster than they were even this morning. Will the trend continue? I don't know. In any case, I don't think your problem has merit. Think about the Christmas storm last year. When the 850mb low moved through, the temps dropped just fine, and that was after rain during the afternoon and evening. Temps will not be a "FEW"(It will be more like alot) degrees above freezing for CLT. I can tell you that much. And if you are going by the models, then you will die by the models. But i'm not going to waste my time debating this, so lets agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps will not be a "FEW"(It will be more like alot) degrees above freezing for CLT. I can tell you that much. And if you are going by the models, then you will die by the models. But i'm not going to waste my time debating this, so lets agree to disagree. I just want to know what strange world you live in where temps can't drop with precip and northerly winds. Maybe you're thinking about a clear night with high dewpoints. This isn't that. In any case, Charlotte kind of misses out in the current model runs. Only northern NC seems to stand any bit of a chance with this system and it's still quite marginal-looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I just want to know what strange world you live in where temps can't drop with precip and northerly winds. Maybe you're thinking about a clear night with high dewpoints. This isn't that. In any case, Charlotte kind of misses out in the current model runs. Only northern NC seems to stand any bit of a chance with this system and it's still quite marginal-looking. I love how you were against this and how you are for it. sounds like trolling to me. I never said they can't drop, so don't put words in my mouth. I said that they would drop slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 For anyone wondering, most of SC especially KCAE is out of this one other than rain by what's currently modeled. Personally I believe it'd take a miracle to get snow or even anything frozen down this way. That's include a super strengthening low tracking around central Florida and possibly bombing out along with many other factors. Sorry. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 After reviewing the EURO, and the recent trends in models, I would go with some slushy accumulation esp. west or north as one approaches Virginia. Just my take so far...may be a bit overdone. "Meh" for Winston south and or east. *2 days of model watching to go tho' I agree. I think people are getting overly excited seeing the soundings for their area and looking at snowfall accumulation maps. Even though the trend looks good, the situation has not changed, and that is there is no cold air in place in front of the storm and we are relying on cold air to catch up with the moisture. As everyone here in the Southeast knows this rarely works out. I can probably count on one hand how many times it actually resulted in anything significant in the Northern Piedmont of NC. The most likely outcome based on real life experience is that there will be a band of heavy wet snow that develops as the cold catches up with the moisture and the storm is pulling away. While it will be pretty to look at the result will likely be a slushy accumulation in grassy areas outside of the mountains. This is how these situations play out 95% of the time in this area so why would this be any different. I have to always remind myself that the snowfall accumulation maps are rarely accurate as they can give a lot of false hope. I still doubt anyone outside of the mountains and South of Virginia will see anything significant in the way of accumulating snow from this. That being said, it will still be the biggest event for Northern NC so far this season, which isn't that difficult to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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