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Feb. 18-20, 2012 Disco/Analysis


Poimen

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Overall, I'm pleased w/ the model runs today. We're atleast in the ballgame. It really wouldn't take much to shift this a little more south. Tomorrow's runs should be really interesting. I'm also really curious to see what the Canadian comes out w/ tonight. I'm more into this storm now that I've been for days.

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Overall, I'm pleased w/ the model runs today. We're atleast in the ballgame. It really wouldn't take much to shift this a little more south. Tomorrow's runs should be really interesting. I'm also really curious to see what the Canadian comes out w/ tonight. I'm more into this storm now that I've been for days.

North of a HKY to GSO line may still have some hope of winter weather out of this system, but even there it looks less and less likely. Still holding onto a little hope. Maybe the Euro will throw us a bone.

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Overall, I'm pleased w/ the model runs today. We're atleast in the ballgame. It really wouldn't take much to shift this a little more south. Tomorrow's runs should be really interesting. I'm also really curious to see what the Canadian comes out w/ tonight. I'm more into this storm now that I've been for days.

That would make the world's difference for north-west NC. I don't won't all those birds from Virginia flying here this weekend either. It has happened before. Also it really won't take much to include more areas around the Raleigh area for severe weather if it trends the other way. The slight risk is breathing on your door step already on the 3 day. Can't tell from the line if your not already included for that or not...

On to the EURO for me tho... :snowwindow:

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North of a HKY to GSO line may still have some hope of winter weather out of this system, but even there it looks less and less likely. Still holding onto a little hope. Maybe the Euro will throw us a bone.

The GFS and NAM have been all over the place. Canadian and to a lesser extent the Euro have been leading the way, I wouldn't get down yet.

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We have ALOT more hope now than what most on the board were giving us @ 11:30 this morning. Then the Canadian and Euro came in with a solid shot. I'd say the NAM and GFS are slowly moving in that direction. Admittedly, I would have liked to have seen a bigger move.

TW

Evidently the Ukie went north, I haven't seen it though. I think the storm is fairly locked in, the battle zone will be between the NC/VA line and Baltimore, with the sweet between Richmond/DC.

I am still holding out hope for some wrap around flakes for central NC, long shot, but not impossible.

CMC came north some too, all the models are in fairly good agreement with the path. Although, the CMC is the most south and would probably give northern NC a little more snow.

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Evidently the Ukie went north, I haven't seen it though. I think the storm is fairly locked in, the battle zone will be between the NC/VA line and Baltimore, with the sweet between Richmond/DC.

I am still holding out hope for some wrap around flakes for central NC, long shot, but not impossible.

Yeah, I'd have to agree. I think somewhere between Waynesboro and Stauton and Lexington is the place to be. Richmond will be too far s and e I beleive.

TW

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Evidently the Ukie went north, I haven't seen it though. I think the storm is fairly locked in, the battle zone will be between the NC/VA line and Baltimore, with the sweet between Richmond/DC.

I am still holding out hope for some wrap around flakes for central NC, long shot, but not impossible.

CMC came north some too, all the models are in fairly good agreement with the path. Although, the CMC is the most south and would probably give northern NC a little more snow.

I agree pb...This is what I'm hoping for. At this time I'm not expecting us to be in the bullseye.

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I'm still very encouraged most of the piedmont will see flakes on Sunday Night/Monday AM.

Yeah, I feel pretty good about spotting a few here in the northern coastal plain Sunday night in the new Cree xp-g led flood light out back. Still kicking around the idea about heading north but the timing would suck as the wife has to work on Monday and the little one has school. Saturday timing would have worked out much better for a chase, even so, a one or two hour drive is not out of the question Sunday afternoon depending.

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Also calling for a chance in Lumberton (getting close to the Pee Dee):

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_klbt.txt

Florence?

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kflo.txt

0.3 for FLO, vs 0.2 for CLT (snowfall). Makes sense of course, but still good stuff. The CMC is said to sticking to be it's south routes, and the UK is said to not be heading North. So this global vs local debate this run may come to fruition. The Euro should answer a lot of questions along with all model ensembles. I wish the 500mb pattern was more stable so the models could use their climo code to hone out the outcome better though. I'd personally take a mean of the euro, cmc/ggem, and gfs as a forecaster once the ensembles come out.

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Here Here, But long ways to go yet.. My money is on a more northward track when all is said and done! Hope i'm wrong!!!

I'm supose to be up there helping the inlaws lay down some fence for the cows. Figured your in the game better than anyone on or SE forum and I agree a long ways to go still. If I get burnt like we did in December 2010 rest assured I'll be there. But don't worry I wont stop in Tobacoville and pick up your boy on the way. Guessing he'd be convoying all those plows across the state line.

Where 's the Ukie line??

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