burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think it's a great run, a lot of rain, token flakes, big snow event got MA. I've seen this long range NAM qpf train before. I'll be shocked if 24 hours from the event it keeps those same totals....I know setup is a bit different this go round but I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't take any solace in the fact my play by play was pretty good. I sure hope the low into east TN isn't the correct solution. Keep the track of the EURO and the temp profile of the NAM and we'd be in business, or a lot of us would i would think. Let's hope Brandon is correct with his ideas that this low will be further south. Can't believe I'm being suckered into staying up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 congrats Charlottesville, VA ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the NAM didn't know what to do. Its almost like it tried to do a Miller A and Miller B compromise. I'm still hopeful for some flakes but of course would love more like the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think the mountains may get a suprise on the back side of this thing. Just keeps trending a couple of inches in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 THis isnt the typical cold chasing the precip deal guys..look at how long the RH hangs around, nearly 12 hours after the cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 THis isnt the typical cold chasing the precip deal guys..look at how long the RH hangs around, nearly 12 hours after the cold arrives. On the model sure but when the time comes it will most likely end up being the typical cold chasing precip deal. It goes with our territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'll take this anyday, and I'm sure many of you would say the same. The NAM tends to overdo QPF amounts in these situations, from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't remember seeing this cut off in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The nam is clearly picking up on the dynamic cooling - even without precip, keeps middle tennessee down at freezing all day, despite it dryslotting the crap out of us. I think that's one thing the globals have been missing - the dynamics dragging in the cold air on the back side. We just need the storm to be moving more east and less north (like the euro) and the thermals from the NAM. That's probably too much to ask though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On the model sure but when the time comes it will most likely end up being the typical cold chasing precip deal. It goes with our territory. Agreed. +dry slotting +GOM storms robbing QPF, NAM probably overdid qpf too IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't remember seeing this cut off in previous runs. Yeah, that's a piece that broke off from the northern stream, that's a new one, in fact the handling of the northern stream was different this run, it was quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Agreed. +dry slotting +GOM storms robbing QPF, NAM probably overdid qpf too IMO You're being a bit overdramatic there. The NAM likely did overdo the QPF, but there's no evidence of dry-slotting as of now or of the GOM convection robbing our moisture (though that is always a possibility). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM cut off on snowfall is brutal. 5-10mile shift east would be the difference between 1 and 6 inches here in Williamsburg, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Woohoo, per the NAM, 0.20" of precip that falls as sleet/snow. 75 02/20 03Z 33 30 3 13 0.15 0.00 541 547 -0.8 -19.5 1007 100 -PL 002OVC149 0.6 4.5 78 02/20 06Z 31 29 355 15 0.05 0.00 537 546 -5.5 -21.0 1011 100 -SN 000OVC158 0.6 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 DC get's my dream event, snow starts mid-afternoon and drops about 12"... 63 02/19 15Z 32 29 44 12 0.06 0.00 543 555 -0.7 -14.7 1014 100 SN 003OVC361 0.6 5.4 66 02/19 18Z 31 30 48 11 0.46 0.00 543 552 -3.1 -14.4 1011 100 SN 003OVC223 4.6 0.2 69 02/19 21Z 31 30 37 13 0.29 0.00 540 547 -5.0 -18.5 1008 100 SN 002OVC121 2.9 0.4 72 02/20 00Z 30 29 9 13 0.15 0.00 536 544 -7.2 -22.0 1010 100 -SN 000OVC225 1.5 0.6 75 02/20 03Z 30 29 2 12 0.12 0.00 534 543 -7.0 -21.4 1011 100 -SN 000OVC178 1.2 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You're being a bit overdramatic there. The NAM likely did overdo the QPF, but there's no evidence of dry-slotting as of now or of the GOM convection robbing our moisture (though that is always a possibility). Yea. I was just adding to what goes for our "territory" on his post. However, looks like someone already started a severe weather thread. Just glanced at it and saw the SPC has shaded areas up to 30% for the 3 day map to our south. Very well could be some moisture robbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM Bufkit has TSRA here for six hours prior to the changeover. Strange. Also, NAM Bufkit shows several hours of freezing rain prior to the changeover in GSO and in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 @ RDUwx. That is likely another wild card, this run actually tries to close off at 300 mb over MO, certainly something to watch going forward and a large player in whatever SN possibilities reside for NC. Normally I would say cut those qpf totals in half from the nam given a wet output but in this case given a 140kt 300mb jet core tapping off the gulf, going to be copious moisture transport folks, not likely a case of convection robbing it, rather enhancing it up into the Carolina's. Granted, most of it will come on the front end, tropical type rates under the heavier stuff, then a backside that could switch over to snow. Still don't think we should give much weight to the nam yet, give it another 24 hrs to better resolve the interactions. This could end up being a strung out mess, would support a late phase scenario somewhere over central tn. Wave behind aids in keeping it somewhat flat, bombo never really gets a chance to happen, but still a potent gulf low with some surprises likely instore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS @30..energy in the west is slower and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS @30..energy in the west is slower and further south. The northern stream energy is a bit further north, too, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The northern stream energy is a bit further north, too, it seems. It is indeed. Also has that energy in Manitoba...so many players on the field on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 @39 our energy out west is a good bit slower compared to 18z and getting a little strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great reads on the last page or so of the ma thread, head over and have a look guys... The 0Z NAM verbatim is one of the most impressive displays of frontogenetic processes you will ever see in a non oceanic bomb complete with perfect horizontal deformation frontogenesis, likely some negative EPV/convective instability, and a nearly vertically co-located mid level front/upper level divergent jet streak. It would be the perfect setup, and a rare example of a non Noreaster event for the MA with heavy snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM Bufkit has TSRA here for six hours prior to the changeover. Strange. Also, NAM Bufkit shows several hours of freezing rain prior to the changeover in GSO and in the foothills. ZR? Are you serious? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just wanna jump in really quick and thank everyone for their play by play and disco! Its greatly appreciated by me! A weather novice trying to learn and this forum has helped me a great deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great reads on the last page or so of the ma thread, head over and have a look guys... Ya i was just over there reading some great info on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Lots of QPF on this run in AL where that low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Phasing over MS @51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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