tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I thought no one would like this run. That low is WAY north, stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:41 AM, Dunkman said: And now it's going apps runner...sigh. Some forecaster in eastern Arkansas just spit coffee all over his keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:40 AM, tnweathernut said: I can see Kentucky getting hammered, not so sure about TN. Low is further north and going more severely negative sooner which should lift that low further north than previous runs. JMO Well Western TN got hit pretty hard..thought it might move a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Lots of rain here on the 0z NAM. ~2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 MA forum might explode on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1026H and a 50-50 low and the NAM is running the SLP right into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Makes me wonder about the initialization errors mentioned and whether or not what we thought was a trend was a hiccup. I guess time will tell, always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:45 AM, packbacker said: 1026H and a 50-50 low and the NAM is running the SLP right into it. So much for the idea that there would not be a big phase but I still don't think this is the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:47 AM, tnweathernut said: Makes me wonder about the initialization errors mentioned and whether or not what we thought was a trend was a hiccup. I guess time will tell, always does. Just goes to show how important that can be. GFS and Euro will be telling. Two days out and still no one knows WTF is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:48 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: So much for the idea that there would not be a big phase but I still don't think this is the final solution. Am I missing something? Was it because the phase was later that it pulled it so far north? It looked like it was keeping it self separate...also was part of the problem the energy being so much stronger on the NAM that was in the plains trailing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I mean it goes east to the LA gulf coast, then NE to like knoxville, then due east to off of norfolk. I guess it's possible but that certainly seems odd. edit: corrected geography problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:49 AM, burgertime said: Just goes to show how important that can be. GFS and Euro will be telling. Two days out and still no one knows WTF is going to happen. All I can say is that tonight's GFS will be interesting. I will be looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 3rd straight run showing alot of NC ending as snow showers or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 From hour 42 to 57 the low heads NE, to the TN line and then heads essentially due east, which is why it destroys central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 NAM gives every square inch of NC at least 1.5 inches of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:50 AM, burgertime said: Am I missing something? Was it because the phase was later that it pulled it so far north? It looked like it was keeping it self separate...also was part of the problem the energy being so much stronger on the NAM that was in the plains trailing it? Yeah, it went negative too soon. Too much interaction between the streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:55 AM, Queencitywx said: 3rd straight run showing alot of NC ending as snow showers or flurries. Yea there is that, just wish it could be a shade greener for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:52 AM, Dunkman said: I mean it goes east to the LA gulf coast, then NE to like knoxville, then due east to off of norfolk. I guess it's possible but that certainly seems odd. edit: corrected geography problem You gotta remember this is way beyond the nam's range of 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:50 AM, burgertime said: Am I missing something? Was it because the phase was later that it pulled it so far north? It looked like it was keeping it self separate...also was part of the problem the energy being so much stronger on the NAM that was in the plains trailing it? It looked to me like the southern energy was stronger at 500 and went negative sooner. This caused the low to be north, not to mention the low is stronger. I thought it looked like a possible solution, now whether or not it's correct is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 2:56 AM, HKY_WX said: You gotta remember this is way beyond the nam's range of 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z NAM changes a lot of us over to snow at the end, it seems, so it's not all bad news. Of course, cold chasing the moisture setups usually work terribly for us, so I'm not overly excited about those prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'll take this anyday, and I'm sure many of you would say the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The one good thing I can say about this run is that it IS colder. The only reason we don't realize any benefits is b/c it sends the low into eastern TN. Much much colder look north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Beggers can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:00 AM, superjames1992 said: 0z NAM changes a lot of us over to snow at the end, it seems, so it's not all bad news. Of course, cold chasing the moisture setups usually work terribly for us, so I'm not overly excited about those prospects. I have said that for several days. Most of time the set up cold air chasing don't work out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think it's a great run, a lot of rain, token flakes, big snow event got MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:01 AM, burgertime said: Beggers can't be choosy. I don't take any solace in the fact my play by play was pretty good. I sure hope the low into east TN isn't the correct solution. Keep the track of the EURO and the temp profile of the NAM and we'd be in business, or a lot of us would i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:01 AM, tnweathernut said: The one good thing I can say about this run is that it IS colder. The only reason we don't realize any benefits is b/c it sends the low into eastern TN. Much much colder look north of the low. Yeah the 2m temps north of the low are much colder. This event has been trending colder over the past couple model cycles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:05 AM, CaseyWXwatcher said: Yeah the 2m temps north of the low are much colder. This event has been trending colder over the past couple model cycles now Yeah the northern stream was quicker and the low was slower allowing the high over the lakes to shift more east and get established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On 2/17/2012 at 3:00 AM, superjames1992 said: 0z NAM changes a lot of us over to snow at the end, it seems, so it's not all bad news. Of course, cold chasing the moisture setups usually work terribly for us, so I'm not overly excited about those prospects. It is showing us some wrap-around love, but that rarely works out for anyone east of the mountains. If we are to get anything frozen (outside of some token flakes), that low needs to go well south of us. I would love to spend the weekend at ground-zero for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.