burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you want a big storm in NC, root for this thing to miss the northern stream. This run is a just a taste of what would happen if this doesn't phase. I've got my Pom Pom's out. 00z could be a fantastic run if this is the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you want a big storm in NC, root for this thing to miss the northern stream. This run is a just a taste of what would happen if this doesn't phase. If it continues to trend slower then that's a possibility. The cold front still needs to pass through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've got my Pom Pom's out. 00z could be a fantastic run if this is the trend. Let's hope man. BTW where is Robert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you want a big storm in NC, root for this thing to miss the northern stream. This run is a just a taste of what would happen if this doesn't phase. Maybe being in a LaNina could actually help with this then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Token flurries down to the I-20 area in GA with this NAM run, I'd take it. Also you are right burger, hard to not think if the NAM was right that lots of folks would end up with some snow showers as the system departs. It does keep getting closer to some snow for more of NC but like others have said the noteworthy/substantial stuff looks confined to the most northern parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Flurries all the way to the coast on that run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hasnt every model come south this afternoon though? That is the key. The actual solutions are only somewhat decent as most of the storm would still be rain for most. But the trend is very noticable and if it continues, the we got something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is it just me or does 18z GFS have this MUCH further south at hr 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's hope man. BTW where is Robert? I talked to him today he said he was going to be out until this evening so he wouldn't be on his PC. Would also love to hear his thoughts with this run. FWIW 18z is out to 27 and looks close to it's 12z run...some minor differences at 500 but not much. We'll see how she plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Token flurries down to the I-20 area in GA with this NAM run, I'd take it. Also you are right burger, hard to not think if the NAM was right that lots of folks would end up with some snow showers as the system departs. It does keep getting closer to some snow for more of NC but like others have said the noteworthy/substantial stuff looks confined to the most northern parts of NC. I don't know about GA but wrap around moisture is imaginary folklore for CLT IMO. Once the storm passes south, moisture is pretty much done from my experience. Raleigh and east, well that's another story. I think they do well with wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is it just me or does 18z GFS have this MUCH further south at hr 18? I thought it looked pretty much identical. @30 placement and speed of the southern energy is about the same. Difference in energy diving into the Rockies though...doesn't look as stout but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What's interesting is comparing the 18z GFS to last nights 0z GFS, much slower, probably 200 miles west and much less northern stream interaction. The 18z GFS looks close to the 12z GFS, maybe a hint of less phasing with 18z but I would bet this turns out pretty close to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That is the key. The actual solutions are only somewhat decent as most of the storm would still be rain for most. But the trend is very noticable and if it continues, the we got something. So are we saying the track is the only thing left to get into position? My understanding is that even if the track is perfect there's just not enough cold air for snow in the piedmont. If the track does line up say on the FL panhandle and tracks to SAV, where is the cold air coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What's interesting is comparing the 18z GFS to last nights 0z GFS, much slower, probably 200 miles west and much less northern stream interaction. The 18z GFS looks close to the 12z GFS, maybe a hint of less phasing with 18z but I would bet this turns out pretty close to the 12z run. Yep not much change..@39 it's actually a tad north and it looks like there is about to be a lot of interaction going with a phase. All these solutions we might not know what will happen until it is on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So are we saying the track is the only thing left to get into position? My understanding is that even if the track is perfect there's just not enough cold air for snow in the piedmont. If the track does line up say on the FL panhandle and tracks to SAV, where is the cold air coming from? I believe what we would need is for this to go slower thus allowing the cold front to come in either right as the heavy precip is or just before...there is a cold front coming but right now it is showing up late and pushing the moisture away. If this system can slow down (no northern interaction?) it should allow this front to move in and with heavy enough precip rates maybe give someone a surprise. A pro can feel free to correct me though if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @51 it's slowed down but is further north than the 12z run with our energy to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't know about GA but wrap around moisture is imaginary folklore for CLT IMO. Once the storm passes south, moisture is pretty much done from my experience. Raleigh and east, well that's another story. I think they do well with wrap around. Lol it's usually forklore here too. Once in a blue moon maybe some backs d snow. Cold following moisture is almost always the rule here. As lookout posted earlier this maybe where n ga and sc are watching nc get snow while we just miss out oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I believe what we would need is for this to go slower thus allowing the cold front to come in either right as the heavy precip is or just before...there is a cold front coming but right now it is showing up late and pushing the moisture away. If this system can slow down (no northern interaction?) it should allow this front to move in and with heavy enough precip rates maybe give someone a surprise. A pro can feel free to correct me though if I'm wrong. ...That, in conjunction with any increased dynamic cooling if this thing grows in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 guys is there a pretty good chance we could still get snow in wnc I just noticed the weather channel has a 70 percent chance of a rain/snow mix for asheville and surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z NAM @ 200mb, note that jet core coming out of NC and the orientation, very favorable position to evacuate upper air from a surface cyclone in the left exit region. 300mb jet streak off the Gulf, another wild card given a favorable position/orientation for copious QPF transport We may be in for a show from LA into AL on Saturday in terms on precip amounts, upper air setup favors Gulf tap enhancing moisture into the SE, not seeing this as a case where convection robs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @51 it's slowed down but is further north than the 12z run with our energy to the west. also NAM vs GFS @51 nearly identical. NAM marginally slower but that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well it does appear on the 18z our low is further south...def. slower on the sfc maps. Out to 57 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Surface low appears to cut too far NW on this run of the 18Z GFS. At hour 72, the surface low appears to be NW of Columbia, SC. 0C 850 line is along the TN/NC border and VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z just crushes West Virginia on this run. Much colder for that area. A close dodge for the I-40 north on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If only that GFS run was about 150 miles further south there would be snow galore for all of us. I do like the way the trends are going but for being as far south as I am vs everyone else my chances are microscopic for it to trend that far. Most of NC is so close on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If the 18z GFS took the Euro track, it would be as cold if not colder in my opinion. One of the most interesting things I am seeing is that all of a sudden all the models appear to be trending towards the Canadian. Of all the 00z runs, I may be the most interested in it, as I think taken verbatim the 12z Canadian was probably a slushy 1-2 inches for RDU, definitely the coldest of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would throw out the NAM guys, at-least the 18 and 12z runs around 48hrs. Major difference is the lack of energy in NE/KS compared to what the big 3 globals are showing, and eventual interaction with the southern stream. 12z Euro is not that far off from the 18z GFS with this, although it holds the energy back into W NE compared to the GFS which interacts a little earlier. Canadian is a little further south with the southern energy limiting interaction until later, something to keep an eye on but just comparing the NAM to the globals, clearly not picking up on what should be a fairly important parcel in NE/KS around day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18Z is not exciting at all. Same land track, then out to sea with the NAO the way it is. Winners are mtn locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I would throw out the NAM guys, at-least the 18 and 12z runs around 48hrs. Major difference is the lack of energy in NE/KS compared to what the big 3 globals are showing, and eventual interaction with the southern stream. 12z Euro is not that far off from the 18z GFS with this, although it holds the energy back into W NE compared to the GFS which interacts a little earlier. Canadian is a little further south with the southern energy limiting interaction until later, something to keep an eye on but just comparing the NAM to the globals, clearly not picking up on what should be a fairly important parcel in NE/KS around day 2. Knew it probably had to be too good to be true. Either way 00z runs should be interesting tonight. Does it keep hope alive? After all is said and done this probably still ends up a wait and see with someone on the fringes cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think at this point, I agree w WNC, the NAM can't be trusted until the 0z is out....Stinks because it was a great run for NE TN. Overall, I would really not be surprised to see the original track come back into play as some others have said. The lack of cold air is my main concern. It's going to have to wrap up some. If it misses the northern branch could it cut-off or will the southern stream kick it along? Edit: Still, it shows that much chaos in a weather pattern can impact model performance, especially if initialization errors persist. I still say a big storm, sub 990 off Hatteras, is coming. I suspect it will be too warm for most and the track will be inland until it slips of the coast around Hatteras. I say south Mississippi, to central Georgia, and w a slight curvature just inside the coast - but slower than the forecast of the last few days. I still would not be surprised to see some energy go west of the Apps and then transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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