Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Regarding the Christmas storm, there was a LOT more cold air to work with. So while I do agree that the models trended back in a similar fashion to what may be happening here, let's not forget that the available cold still appears to be marginal up to this point...not that things still can change for the snowier...just that the situation is not entirely an apples to apples comparison. Things could still trend better with the track and most can still end up with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I apologize to you, my comment was uncalled for. You are right, and I said this earlier, that we aren't that far from a major snow here in central NC. It just seems the cold air is too far north to arrive in time for accumulating snow here, but I'm certainly not discounting a changeover. Sorry again for my comment. I appreciate the apology. I am guilty alot of times of being the eternal optimist when it comes to winter storms. When I see a situation that is as close as this one is to a winter storm, I usually dont give up on it unti a few hours before the event. I always believe that there is a chance up until the very last minute. Burger put it best when he said that to people like us it is more like a sport than science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Different Mets. wrote the short term & long term in this update. Not sure how this works as far as input from other mets but, it seems to me like their might be some subtle disagreement. As I have said many times before, the long term writer is imo the best winter met at GSP. Probably reaching here but who knows. They are definitely comparing each others forecast before they send them out, because the grids have to agree somewhere in the time between forecasting periods. McAvoy is a great forecaster. I got the opportunity to learn some of the tools of the trade from him in the Summer of 2010 when I was interning back at the GSP office. Really nice guy who is also a UNCA alum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 BTW taking a peak at our vort, this doesn't have the look of a fast moving bowling ball that sometimes skirt along the gulf coast. The huge stj connection is noticable as is the almost southern trajectory. This thing is going spit out a lot of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well 18z NAM isn't straying much from the 12z NAM if anything there might be less interaction with the energy to the north. Hard to tell though with that lobe up in NW TX....also might be splitting hairs here but it might be a tad slower out to 30...but if it is it just hardly noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well 18z NAM isn't straying much from the 12z NAM if anything there might be less interaction with the energy to the north. Hard to tell though with that lobe up in NW TX....also might be splitting hairs here but it might be a tad slower out to 30...but if it is it just hardly noticeable. At 30, the 500mb energy in the SW is a bit slower and further. Looks like it is going slower than normal this afternoon. I guess we will see if the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At 30, the 500mb energy in the SW is a bit slower and further. Looks like it is going slower than normal this afternoon. I guess we will see if the trend continues. Yea @33 it's noticeable...thought at 30 I might be seeing things. Also looks slightly further south @33 than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 At this rate we'll be done w/ the 18z gfs before the 18z nam is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 at hr 42, which we have been stuck on for like 5 minutes, really helps the drought areas of Texas. Nice dosing of rain for those peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Only out through 39 on NCEP, crawling today for some reason, maybe checking for initialization errors before putting up the graphics, unsure... But the biggest difference I see and it is a big one is the absence of a discrete vort in CO. You can see that piece of energy that got sheared off the southern stream moving into OK, but where the 12z NAM had this interacting with a parcel over CO, not seeing it this run. Still the presence of northern energy coming into the central plains back into CO, but I do not see as much compared to 12z, actually looks fairly intact extending down into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also keep an eye on that piece in west-central Manitoba, something in or near there is likely your wild card if one presents later on. Out to 51, a little slower, maybe even attempting to close off again in central TX. Should be a better run than 12z just based on the upper air stuff through about day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this run is really close to having the northern branch missing it. wouldn't that be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Further south @60 with our energy...tons of QPF inbound to NC. We're gonna need a bigger boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this run is really close to having the northern branch missing it. wouldn't that be interesting. What would that do for folks HKY? Just out of curiosity especially since we've been expecting the phase or partial phase for a decent while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Primary surface low looks to be 150 miles or so south at 60 hours from the 66 hour position from the 12z run. I think as WeatherNC pointed out there is less northern stream influence through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What would that do for folks HKY? Just out of curiosity especially since we've been expecting the phase or partial phase for a decent while now. Most likely more supression as there is a reinforcing shot of cold air coming in behind this system or phasing in with it depending on your model of choice. If this s/w were to bypass the southern system, it would likely allow that HP over the midwest to slide east and deflect this storm out to see off of hatteras like was happening a few days ago. It would also favor a closed low longer with the southern impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Low forming just off of ILM at 69...looks like it might be bombing out Never mind just starts heading east at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cold is coming on the 66h frame (but not here yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This run = bad for the MA crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hour 72 is rocking with regards to the 850mb 0 C line. I'm not sure about BL temps, at the moment. But, this image looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 72 is rocking with regards to the 850mb 0 C line: wow..may have to reconsider heading home this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So do we just junk this run as HPC is doing with the NAM based or initialization / feedback jargon, or our we starting to get within the mesoscale envelope at about 48 hrs and give some weight to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @78 cold is starting to really move in but much of the moisture is moving out...if we could just slow this down by a little bit it could be a big hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 PType at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This at 72 hours shows your where the lift and moisture is. WOuld probalby be snowing at a good clip near in northern NC piedmont at this time and Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So do we just junk this run as HPC is doing with the NAM based or initialization / feedback jargon, or our we starting to get within the mesoscale envelope at about 48 hrs and give some weight to it? hasnt every model come south this afternoon though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @78 cold is starting to really move in but much of the moisture is moving out...if we could just slow this down by a little bit it could be a big hit for many. Here's hour 78 for those interested. (Who am I kidding, we're all interested!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 @78 cold is starting to really move in but much of the moisture is moving out...if we could just slow this down by a little bit it could be a big hit for many. Sounds like the trend is for it to keep slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yay this run a lot of NC get's some token flurries at the end of it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you want a big storm in NC, root for this thing to miss the northern stream. This run is a just a taste of what would happen if this doesn't phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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