NTriadwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. Well, every major model seems to be doing poorly with todays storm. Why not this weekends too? I'm not trying to question anyones expertise, but the models have and will be wrong at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well day 2 without a favorable model continues. One thing I can say is that the CMC at least is indicating a changeover to snow at the end in the form of wrap around precipitation. The NAM on the other hand says not to fast. GFS also is indicating a all rain event for Charlotte at least. (image below) I'm still expecting rain for all non-mtn locations, unless models trend significantly cooler for a long period of time. I saw this as it slides the upper low through the region after the cold air arrives.....interesting. This has peaked my interest a tad more, but I think it may be a bit overdone. A brief shot of light snow/snow showers can't be ruled out later Sunday in NW NC, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. I am not questioning any of the mets at all. I was just giving my own opinion. I do appreciate your insight on the board and I have learned alot from your posts. The one thing I forgot to incluce in my last post is that it is pretty unlikely at this point. I may pick up a couple of inches in my area so at this point so I am considering that major the way this winter has gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Brad Panovich just updated his blog on what he thinks will happen this weekend... http://wxbrad.com/?p=2950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Greensboro to a little north of RDU. 4" at Rocky Mount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Greensboro to a little north of RDU. 4" at Rocky Mount! Yeah, not a major snow storm, but a nice little event. Richmond gets destroyed, probably 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Greensboro to a little north of RDU. 4" at Rocky Mount! It would also indicate that most of the state would at least see some token flakes as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I can realistically envision this turning into a bigger/whiter event for SE VA/NE NC than is currently being depicted and expected, UKMET/Canadian/Euro support this... Heaviest band with deformation potential may be coming through southern VA. 12z Euro is an advisory event for all the VA boarder counties east of Mt.. Airy verbatim, 850's in the -4C range as it comes through Sunday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro shift is very interesting. One more shift like that at 00z we may have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Greensboro to a little north of RDU. 4" at Rocky Mount! First the Canadian, and now the Euro? hmmm interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just an observation, but this run of the Euro looks like this thing deepens quite rapidly on its trek ENE and most importantly looks quite a bit colder at a glance. Anyone else notice this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Greensboro to a little north of RDU. 4" at Rocky Mount! Ooops, I meant 4" for Roanoke Rapids, not Rocky Mount. Rocky Mount more like 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hold the phone. The Euro has spoken. 12z Euro @ 72 hours is pretty rocking according to the Wunderground Snowfall Maps... (Courtesy of Wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12Z Euro has 2" of snow from Memphis to Nashville Maybe....It could easily be unconsolidated glop...a few spots get it but a big shield on the northern edge below the plateau and Apps; I am skeptical it will be cold enough to do much at the surface in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro is something people in northern NC will be hoping for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I am not questioning any of the mets at all. I was just giving my own opinion. I do appreciate your insight on the board and I have learned alot from your posts. The one thing I forgot to incluce in my last post is that it is pretty unlikely at this point. I may pick up a couple of inches in my area so at this point so I am considering that major the way this winter has gone so far. I apologize to you, my comment was uncalled for. You are right, and I said this earlier, that we aren't that far from a major snow here in central NC. It just seems the cold air is too far north to arrive in time for accumulating snow here, but I'm certainly not discounting a changeover. Sorry again for my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I apologize to you, my comment was uncalled for. You are right, and I said this earlier, that we aren't that far from a major snow here in central NC. It just seems the cold air is too far north to arrive in time for accumulating snow here, but I'm certainly not discounting a changeover. Sorry again for my comment. We know us can be out of control. Heck I ran off a met and was very rude last year and I still feel bad for it. I think the thing is that as amateurs we look at less as science and more as a sport. We hope against hope we can score 8 points with 10 seconds left in the basketball game by fouling. Meanwhile the coaches and players no better. While I always try to stay optimistic I literally don't believe 100% we'll get what I'm hoping for. Much like my comments on the NAM earlier were more of just a "check out what the NAM shows...probably will not happen". However it could have been worded better. Either way I don't think anyone took much offense and hopefully you stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS ensemble mean is S/E of the OP, not a ton, but is SE. Several members have accumulating snow in western NC and norther parts of NC, a couple get snow down to central NC. We are teetering right on the edge of seeing our first flakes, 50 mile shift north it's all rain, 50 mile shift south....well I won't go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Of course now the 12z euro makes me look even worse now for my comment lol! I hope I am wrong and I agree that one more euro shift like that and the RDU area could be looking interesting. I would LOVE to be proven wrong here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On the Euro Day 3, looks like there is enough separation from the kicker and late phasing to with energy dropping from Canada for a pretty good (1-2") snowfall across interior portions of the SE US through N. MS., TN, and N. NC. Vort looks healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS ENS Mean compared to 12z GFS OP OP Run Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't wait to see the GFS members...there may be a couple that just dump on the Triad area to get that dip in the middle of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro is something people in northern NC will be hoping for.... What are we looking at here? What is the time period and why doesn't it show more for Richmond. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Can't wait to see the GFS members...there may be a couple that just dump on the Triad area to get that dip in the middle of NC. 99% chance this won't happen, but here is the best member....Avert your eyes unless you can handle the disappointment on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are we looking at here? What is the time period and why doesn't it show more for Richmond. TW I think it's snowfall for 81-84h on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What are we looking at here? What is the time period and why doesn't it show more for Richmond. TW That is a snowfall map. Grain of salt all that. RIC has more because it's colder the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 what are the lows for Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That is a snowfall map. Grain of salt all that. RIC has more because it's colder the further north you go. I realize that, but someone said the Euro was giving richmond 12"+. That map sure didn't show 12"+. So I was wondering if map reflected accumulaitons before the storm was finished. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z Euro / GEM....interesting. That's kind of why I left the window cracked for the northern foothills and VA border areas my AM discussio/ video, but snow gets even further south that than on these models. On the Euro, 850s don't just get a tiny amount below 0 up in northern NC....they plunge to at least -4 before the precip ends. SFC temps in the 30s Sunday afternoon in that area verbatim. Interesting that the GFS Ens precip type map somebody posted lines up remarkably well with the snow accum maps from Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I realize that, but someone said the Euro was giving richmond 12"+. That map sure didn't show 12"+. It's a 3 hour map, you'd have to total up all the three hour increments to know the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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