burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also of note the NAM seems to be coming in slower with each run with this system...doesn't mean snow or cold but as of now it's probably not going to be the big phase blockbuster NY storm the GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the 12z NAM is now showing some snow in NW NC if you could extrapolate possibly some back side snow along I-40. Still not over yet for parts of NC. Definitely agree, and it's always great to see the MA crew get the biggest winter storm of the season, like 2010 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the 12z NAM is now showing some snow in NW NC if you could extrapolate possibly some back side snow along I-40. Still not over yet for parts of NC. In the words of Lee Corso, the 12z Nam says "Not so fast, my friend!". As burger said its definitely not over for parts of NC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In the words of Lee Corso, the 12z Nam says "Not so fast, my friend!". As burger said its definitely not over for parts of NC right now. Let's remember also it's at 84...GFS should be interesting...I agree with others that the big problem is just no cold air in place...even with dynamics seems like those of us outside of the Foothills have very little shot unless this thing can slow to a durn crawl which doesn't look to happen...or if our storm today can miraculously wind up like crazy up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 In the words of Lee Corso, the 12z Nam says "Not so fast, my friend!". As burger said its definitely not over for parts of NC right now. One thing to keep in mind is I think sometimes folks get excited when the blue 850 0c (which is far from the definitive rain/snow line) line is south of precipitation. It's important to remember that the precip is a 6 hr sum, while the 0C is an instantaneous value. What I'm saying is that all the precipitation could have fallen well before the colder air starts to move in. Not picking on you, just something I think happens quite often on here, but maybe you (and others) already realize this - if so, my apologies! Edit: Just to be clear, I'm not saying the 12z NAM may not end as a little light snow/flurries, but I don't think it's showing anything of significance for most of us outside the higher elevations in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 One thing to keep in mind is I think sometimes folks get excited when the blue 850 0c (which is far from the definitive rain/snow line) line is south of precipitation. It's important to remember that the precip is a 6 hr sum, while the 0C is an instantaneous value. What I'm saying is that all the precipitation could have fallen well before the colder air starts to move in. Not picking on you, just something I think happens quite often on here, but maybe you (and others) already realize this - if so, my apologies! Yep...that's why I was saying it might just be in the Mountains with the possibility of backside action for I-40 IF a big IF hours past that still had moisture....but again it is the 84 hour NAM we've seen how well trusting that has worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know I'm ranting a bit this morning, but the out-of-touch-with-reality optimism on this board is driving me crazy. It didn't use to be this way, but the last couple winter it seems like folks just immediately latch on to the best-case scenario and ignore data that doesn't fit (in my business we call this "not letting the story mess up a good headline). So, regarding this latest map, not only is your point about timing important, but the pesky boundary layer is also a problem -- AND HAS BEEN THIS ENTIRE STORM!. Yes, sometimes CAD is undermodeled and we can assume that the BL situation will improve, but for heaven's sake, most of the time models showed the surface 0c line in Pennsylvania! This latest map shows that it never crosses the mountains -- so we have a 6-hour delay with surface temps above 0c and light precip and the maps shows snow? No, it doesn't. Nobody likes tracking winter storms more than me and I understand that "hope" is part of the equation. And the truth is, we all spent more on this system than we normally would have because the winter has been so crappy. But there is a difference between optimism and delusion. I think -- for the last winter or two -- this board has crossed that line. Of course, some poeple may prefer it that way -- but what I prefer is a hopeful, optimistic and REALISTIC look at what is MOST LIKELY to happen, not what may happen if everything goes right, plus some more luck. Rant over. One thing to keep in mind is I think sometimes folks get excited when the blue 850 0c (which is far from the definitive rain/snow line) line is south of precipitation. It's important to remember that the precip is a 6 hr sum, while the 0C is an instantaneous value. What I'm saying is that all the precipitation could have fallen well before the colder air starts to move in. Not picking on you, just something I think happens quite often on here, but maybe you (and others) already realize this - if so, my apologies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yep...that's why I was saying it might just be in the Mountains with the possibility of backside action for I-40 IF a big IF hours past that still had moisture....but again it is the 84 hour NAM we've seen how well trusting that has worked out I usually note when the blue line "crosses" and use that as a starting point and pull future precip totals from there. For instance, if the blue line crosses @ 60 hrs, I might take the 24hr precip total at 84 hrs. Something I haven't usually done but did this morning was used the radar_sim map @ 84 hrs to see how much precip was still around. Looked decent to me though definitely on the tail end. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know I'm ranting a bit this morning, but the out-of-touch-with-reality optimism on this board is driving me crazy. It didn't use to be this way, but the last couple winter it seems like folks just immediately latch on to the best-case scenario and ignore data that doesn't fit (in my business we call this "not letting the story mess up a good headline). So, regarding this latest map, not only is your point about timing important, but the pesky boundary layer is also a problem -- AND HAS BEEN THIS ENTIRE STORM!. Yes, sometimes CAD is undermodeled and we can assume that the BL situation will improve, but for heaven's sake, most of the time models showed the surface 0c line in Pennsylvania! This latest map shows that it never crosses the mountains -- so we have a 6-hour delay with surface temps above 0c and light precip and the maps shows snow? No, it doesn't. Nobody likes tracking winter storms more than me and I understand that "hope" is part of the equation. And the truth is, we all spent more on this system than we normally would have because the winter has been so crappy. But there is a difference between optimism and delusion. I think -- for the last winter or two -- this board has crossed that line. Of course, some poeple may prefer it that way -- but what I prefer is a hopeful, optimistic and REALISTIC look at what is MOST LIKELY to happen, not what may happen if everything goes right, plus some more luck. Rant over. I guess you're talking about my post? I said NW NC but I suppose I should have said far NW NC...I also clarified that it probably wouldn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's encouraging if you want to see snow showers on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC Snow Probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS looks like it's going to be slower than last nights run with our energy out west and possibly less phasing/interaction...but it's only out to 33 so it could still go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_khky.txt shows hickory changing over at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also shows the changeover at Winston-Salem and Greensboro with .9 and .8 inches of snow respectively. Looks to be in line with the last run of the EURO if I read it correctly earlier. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_khky.txt shows hickory changing over at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS says congrats VA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You can see on the NAM a backside vort max that is in N AL at 78 and just south of CLT at 84....that would be key to any backside changeover to a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 via Joe B's twitter account... Feed back on GFS causes premature jump.Tho low near my track, worried correction has to be north 50-75 miles.No change for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GGEM stays consistent, 1005 SLP off ILM. To bad it's on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 via Joe B's twitter account... Feed back on GFS causes premature jump.Tho low near my track, worried correction has to be north 50-75 miles.No change for now Of course it did, 50-75 miles north would put the 95 cities in game, typical big joe bastardi, just call for a DC-PHI-NYC-BOS hit, his audience feeds off of it. The eventual evolution of this storm is starting to come into focus, kind of feel the like the track is pretty much locked at this point with only a small shift n-s possible. Primary surface low coming out of the gulf near LA goes up into NW GA, somewhere around 1000mb, interaction between the streams takes place over the middle ms river valley into TN. Surface low shifts to the NC coast, likely around Cape Lookout, then pulls NE ots, only scraping coastal NE. Heaviest axis of precip is from NE TN to just south of DC, likely somewhere in WV-VA talking 8-12". Best guess would be CHO area, maybe just south of there. NC boarder counties from around Mt Airy to Roanoke Rapids may flirt with an inch or two on the backside, more to the west than east. All depends on where that band eventually sets up and scrapes as it lifts ene, current thinking is the boarder counties are in the best position to get fringed, as well as the NW part of the state. Richmond may be just south of the jackpot along 95, sitting somewhere between them and dc. At the barbor shop so have not had much time to look at the gfs, but imagine it matches up well. May be heading north for the weekend, still a day to decide, but am definitely interested if there is a good chance of seeing 1' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GFS says congrats VA! Yes, but even there it is pretty much a non-event with a couple of inches at best across the central part of the state. Anywhere South of Virginia and outside of the mountains should probably go ahead and write this one off. Although I think the extreme Northeastern section of NC could see a few token flakes as the system pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Doesn't mean it can't be right though. True, but Euro/GFS/NAM are a tough trio to beat. And UK. The path is pretty much locked up (+- 50 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Primary surface low coming out of the gulf near LA goes up into NW GA, somewhere around 1000mb, interaction between the streams takes place over the middle ms river valley into TN. Surface low shifts to the NC coast, likely around Cape Lookout, then pulls NE ots, only scraping coastal NE. This sounds consistent with the 12z UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Here's another look at the 6z NAM for dewpts. Surface temps are within (plus) five degrees. Point is; if there is a stronger high to the north and it is able to generate a CAD, this could trend colder the next couple of days......I still think we should watch this closely. Edit: not sure why the image did not attach but go to http://www.twisterdata.com/ and select NAM as model and then dewpts are under Mosture. yep not sure why everyone is so sure its not going to be cold enough to snow. I've seen it before, NWS calls for rain about 3 days prior to the event and then we wake up 24 hours before and they are calling for a good snow event because the models started trending colder. From the looks of all the players we are very close to the snow scenario just a slight shift in the storm and a little more cold air tapped is all it will take. no way would I say it would be rain for sure. Lets keep hoping for a nice winter storm that trends colder over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the 12z NAM is now showing some snow in NW NC if you could extrapolate possibly some back side snow along I-40. Still not over yet for parts of NC. this map looks like all the mtns of nc get in on the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yep not sure why everyone is so sure its not going to be cold enough to snow. I've seen it before, NWS calls for rain about 3 days prior to the event and then we wake up 24 hours before and they are calling for a good snow event because the models started trending colder. From the looks of all the players we are very close to the snow scenario just a slight shift in the storm and a little more cold air tapped is all it will take. no way would I say it would be rain for sure. Lets keep hoping for a nice winter storm that trends colder over the next day or so. I agree completely. If the 50/50 Low ends up being even a little stronger than projected or the high builds in a little earlier and/or stronger, it could make a big difference in the amount of cold air available. It wouldn't take much of a shift for this to be a major snowstorm in the Northern NC/Southern VA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes, but even there it is pretty much a non-event with a couple of inches at best across the central part of the state. Anywhere South of Virginia and outside of the mountains should probably go ahead and write this one off. Although I think the extreme Northeastern section of NC could see a few token flakes as the system pulls away. To each his own. I would gladly take a "non-event" snowfall of 2 inches. You're welcome to "write it off" should you so desire, but I'll enjoy holding out a little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I agree completely. If the 50/50 Low ends up being even a little stronger than projected or the high builds in a little earlier and/or stronger, it could make a big difference in the amount of cold air available. It wouldn't take much of a shift for this to be a major snowstorm in the Northern NC/Southern VA area. I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. I'm not a meteorologist, and I consider myself an optimist, but I wrote this storm off for us yesterday. The temps were moderate at best, and the 50/50 disappeared from the very pretty Euro at 12Z run the first of the week. Good luck to the Mid-Atlantic, my sister lives in Fairfax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope you guys are kidding. A major snowstorm in Northern NC won't happen with this event. I agree with beanskip that the optimism on this board sometimes borders on insanity. The likelihood every major model is horribly wrong at this time scale is pretty low. As a met, I thought I was doing folks a favor by offering insight into why this one probably won't work out. Apparently, that's not popular with everyone. I'm not going to say its likely to happen when it's not though. So carry on questioning those with more experience and knowledge on the subject. I have to admit that if I were back home in Eden right now, I too would probably be looking at this system through rose colored glasses. Especially after a Winter season like this. However; having distance between me and NC has helped me to keep my focus on recent threats clear. Actually up until the last 10 days I did not see a single system that looked like it could possibly bring Wintry precipitation to North Central NC. Even though we are all looking at the same maps, it is funny how we all see something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well day 2 without a favorable model continues. One thing I can say is that the CMC at least is indicating a changeover to snow at the end in the form of wrap around precipitation. The NAM on the other hand says not to fast. GFS also is indicating a all rain event for Charlotte at least. (image below) I'm still expecting rain for all non-mtn locations, unless models trend significantly cooler for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.