valkhorn Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like I may storm chase this one. If anyone wants to head to Winchester, VA on I81 it looks like it might be a prime spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z Euro @ 72 looks almost exactly like the 0z GFS no? This thing is going inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well, the SE gets the cold...just after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z Euro @ 72 looks almost exactly like the 0z GFS no? This thing is going inland. Yeah Euro moved way north, ends up off of Hatteras. Good for the MA folks, final nail in the coffin for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro caves to the GFS, although not as extreme, 998 in NW GA transfer to off the Carolina coast, deform band and maybe some p type issues from central TN into central/northern VA, precip does not make it much further n than NJ, OTS thereafter. Good run for DC, still some bl issues to,work out for our am friends, but heaviest axis setting up shop from southern wv though dc. Richmond would be mostly RN verbatim, north of there who knows without looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Central NC gets dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro caves to the GFS, although not as extreme, 998 in NW GA transfer to off the Carolina coast, deform band and maybe some p type issues from central TN into central/northern VA, precip does not make it much further n than NJ, OTS thereafter. Good run for DC, still some bl issues to,work out for our am friends, but heaviest axis setting up shop from southern wv though dc. Richmond would be mostly RN verbatim, north of there who knows without looking at soundings. I was interested to see your statement a few posts up about central VA. Are you liking a solution between the Euro and CMC or are all players still on the field at this point? We do seem to have p-type issues with almost every setup here which is a shame considering the fact that many of the depicted slp tracks are usually good for VA/NC snowfalls. I feel for you guys and wish the best down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The only glimmer of hope I can offer here(since i noticed this place has cleaned out lol) is something I noticed on the jma/umket tonight. Notice how they both phase the polar/stj waves pretty early resulting in a cutoff forming over the midwest. If that happens(which seems to be a continuing trend), the odds are this SLP will trend stronger and stronger as we get closer. This would also slow the system down. Even with the current solution the EURO has backlash snows over the mountains and northern foothills up into martinsville and several inches near Roanoke. This deformation/change over zone would grow even more intense if the soultion trends this way. So something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The only glimmer of hope I can offer here(since i noticed this place has cleaned out lol) is something I noticed on the jma/umket tonight. Notice how they both phase the polar/stj waves pretty early resulting in a cutoff forming over the midwest. If that happens(which seems to be a continueing trend), the odds are this SLP will trend stronger and stronger as we get closer. This would also slow the system down. Even with the current solution the EURO has backlash snows over the mountains and northern foothills up into martinsville and several inches near Roanoke. This deformation/change over zone would grow even more intense if the soultion trends this way. So something to watch. That looks like a hell of a severe weather threat, more than the GFS/Euro/NAM are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Grasping at straws here but the SREF has our low further south and east than the GFS/Euro...NOGAPS is really south and much faster (which helps noone). I'm ready to call the time of death on this one but hey might as well be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Grasping at straws here but the SREF has our low further south and east than the GFS/Euro...NOGAPS is really south and much faster (which helps noone). I'm ready to call the time of death on this one but hey might as well be optimistic. Also...did I misread it or is the 6z NAM slower than the 6zGFS....would slower help?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tonight into Friday morning is going to be a long night after 12 z runs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Grasping at straws here but the SREF has our low further south and east than the GFS/Euro...NOGAPS is really south and much faster (which helps noone). I'm ready to call the time of death on this one but hey might as well be optimistic. Looking at Phils writeup and graphics it seems like the SE ridge is just too strong to let any low go up the coast. IMHO, this storm will be an app runner or an ohio valley runner, just like all the rest for this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking at Phils writeup and graphics it seems like the SE ridge is just too strong to let any low go up the coast. IMHO, this storm will be an app runner or an ohio valley runner, just like all the rest for this winter has been. Yea with the Euro caving to the GFS just don't see this one being anything more than a lotta rain probably even for the mountains as well. Such a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Also...did I misread it or is the 6z NAM slower than the 6zGFS....would slower help?? It is slower, also doesn't do a big phase. Doesn't really helps us much though. At the very end of the run it does show the border sections of VA and NC getting in on some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yea with the Euro caving to the GFS just don't see this one being anything more than a lotta rain probably even for the mountains as well. Such a shame. The big story will be the dryslot in central NC and the severe storms down east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It is slower, also doesn't do a big phase. Doesn't really helps us much though. At the very end of the run it does show the border sections of VA and NC getting in on some snow. I'm not hopeing for much but this could still trend a little better the next couple of model runs. I know in years past that the NAM did better at depicting CAD signatures. 6z NAM at 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 0z Euro shows about 1.25" of QPF for RDU, we would probably see some token flakes on the backside of this run, maybe a dusting. To be honest, I would be happy with just seeing some flakes. GSO and INT could see 1-2" of snow on the backside per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I see from the posts last night everybody is down, I still think the western part of NC/E-TN/NE-GA could see a good snow event, with a little luck, and hopefully central NC can get some backside snow. If nothing else, it will be windy/rainy mess for us on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Matthew East posted this...CMC not too bad last night, at least gives some of NC something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agree with Brandon and packbacker. Still just too close to totally throw in the towel. Is it possible fo see a 100 mile shift in 72 hours? sure. Not saying it is likey, but it has happened many, many times. tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Here's another look at the 6z NAM for dewpts. Surface temps are within (plus) five degrees. Point is; if there is a stronger high to the north and it is able to generate a CAD, this could trend colder the next couple of days......I still think we should watch this closely. Edit: not sure why the image did not attach but go to http://www.twisterdata.com/ and select NAM as model and then dewpts are under Mosture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agree with Brandon and packbacker. Still just too close to totally throw in the towel. Is it possible fo see a 100 mile shift in 72 hours? sure. Not saying it is likey, but it has happened many, many times. tw I don't think it matters which track it takes at this point, the real issue is that there is no "real" cold air available this go around. On top of that, even if the High to the North were to trend stronger, there just isn't a source to bring the type of cold air needed to allow anyone South of Virginia to see any snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 An apps runner is not going to happen in this pattern. There is a 50/50 low and there is some blocking into western greenland. That's why this system has drawn so much attention, b/c the setup is good. But the setup can be good and you can still get a lemon. You only remember the ones that work out. I'm starting to think a miller A is likely. Probably something along the southern deep south to hatteras. Whether this cuts up through central GA/SC/eastern NC remains to be seen. If it does, then climo wise any snow would be very unlikely over NC outside of backlash in the mountains. I still think this track is unlikely based on the setup/watching these over the years. There will be some wedgeing that will prevent that from happening. I also think the models have converged on a different solution since 12z yesterday of phasing the system earlier. However, with the 500 low over new england, the low then get's deflected eastwards. That's this will have a hard time climbing the coast. Also due to the fact there is no ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I agree with the reasoning that this storm will likely correct a bit further north than further south from where the consensus is today. With a whole lot of luck, the very, very far NW tip of NC could get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hate to say it guys, but the fact is that 50/50 low was a *key* component in us getting enough cold air transported into central NC and it looks like with it not being as strong as previously modeled that it's time to waive the white flag on this one. I just don't see us getting anything wintry of any significance out of it here in central NC. It's a closer call than a lot of folks who haven't been following it closely will realize, but close won't heal our wounds this winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hate to say it guys, but the fact is that 50/50 low was a *key* component in us getting enough cold air transported into central NC and it looks like with it not being as strong as previously modeled that it's time to waive the white flag on this one. I just don't see us getting anything wintry of any significance out of it here in central NC. It's a closer call than a lot of folks who haven't been following it closely will realize, but close won't heal our wounds this winter . You are correct and all this will do is rub salt in the wounds. Time to find your favorite cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Henry Marguisity on AccuWeather just issued a map which shows snow in parts of the East TN valley and NW NC. Joe Bastardi says no way, with a map showing virtually no snow for TN and NC. These are on the AccuWeather Forum for the MidAtlanic Feb 19 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What is the difference in the bottom blue line on the 1000_850_thick map vs. the 850_temp_mslp_precip map? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well the 12z NAM is now showing some snow in NW NC if you could extrapolate possibly some back side snow along I-40. Still not over yet for parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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