griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM PType at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, It looks like its going to cream those just to our north but not good for most of us except TN. Looks like it must be phasing too soon and pulling way too far west for most. This may not be the end result but I am loosing hope as the NAM is very fast now and there is little time for a 50/50 to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SV maps paint a very small trip in northern VA...I've noticed their maps do pretty well when it's all said and done since they are usually on the conservative side. Nothing in AR but you would think with the moisture the NAM has someone there would just get crushed. lol Miller A to Miller B in the matter of a day...gotta love it..I mean hate it. Yep, what a cluster... Takes a RN/SN dominant p-type and turns it into everything in between. Check out the 850 map at 84, thank god this is the NAM well outside of its useful range, but even so this is somewhat painful to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The shortwaves that drop into North Dakota and Wisconsin in the 42-60hr timeframe turn the 500mb flow over the Ohio Valley from WNW to W. At the same time, you see the weak sfc high slide off the NC coast with SE return flow...and in response to both of these, the 1000-500mb thickness and 850mb zero degree lines warm and move northward. Essentially all modeling shows this type of setup....and it's not a good one at all for wintry precip in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not sure that talking about the NAM at 84 is worth it, but I think this storm will be one SLP w pressures below 990 as it nears Hatteras. I wonder when the westward trend stops. I agree, though, looks like some energy tries to go west of the Apps and then jumps to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This thread is a must read. Phil has a crazy good breakdown of this system http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32721-the-long-view-of-this-weekends-potential-major-east-coast-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This thread is a must read. Phil has a crazy good breakdown of this system http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32721-the-long-view-of-this-weekends-potential-major-east-coast-snowstorm/ No joke. Awesome write-up. Looking very much like a phase but we'll see what the 0z suite holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No joke. Awesome write-up. Looking very much like a phase but we'll see what the 0z suite holds. What really killed us is our storm tomorrow just not being able to get strong enough and push colder air down. Such a shame with so much liquid heading out way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This thread is a must read. Phil has a crazy good breakdown of this system http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32721-the-long-view-of-this-weekends-potential-major-east-coast-snowstorm/ I just pinned it main side, great write up by Phil, best yet on the storm/setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What really killed us is our storm tomorrow just not being able to get strong enough and push colder air down. Such a shame with so much liquid heading our way. Burger, so true. Still, I'd like to see this thing to get on the juice and go bonkers. It has the potential to be a very strong storm - winds in the mountains will be raging. Maybe the 0z will hold a surprise for somebody in the SE. See you all in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll hope for solution #1 and with a gallon of gas stop by Big Frosty's to sleigh ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just pinned it main side, great write up by Phil, best yet on the storm/setup! Check out the 00z...probably going to be yet another solution. Looks like a big phase is about to occur...someone up north will probably end up very happy with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 CAD signature showing up at 72...our 1020 slides out of NY but is replaced by a 1016....only cold enough in VA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well this doesn't wind up as much as the 18z..still a descent hit possibly for the MA and NE...also looks like some back side snow for TN on this run. 00z Euro should be interesting, gotta think though with the new data ingest GFS might be trusted more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks like northern VA and the MA is the big winner for this one...possible sweet spot being Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lower-middle MS river valley, phasing is likely to occur, way to much energy in play from the northern stream for something to miss. Sorry folks, this one is inland, Miller B scenario seems more likely at the moment, may open up the door for p-type issues in TN, central apps certainly. Holly crap is that a busy map at 66hrs, southern vort is basically infused with at least 2 other substantial pieces of energy. Lift off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well I'm off to bed still more questions and no certain answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS pretty much held serve from the 18z but looks weaker and the low seems to have moved ever so slightly to the East but just a hair or so. End result is still not good for most of us. Still hoping for some token flakes out of this if nothing else but the storm will have to be more like Phil's track 1 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NCEPs running slow, Allan's site has updated Through 96, good run for N VA, DC... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zgfs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lower-middle MS river valley, phasing is likely to occur, way to much energy in play from the northern stream for something to miss. Sorry folks, this one is inland, Miller B scenario seems more likely at the moment, may open up the door for p-type issues in TN, central apps certainly. Holly crap is that a busy map at 66hrs, southern vort is basically infused with at least 2 other substantial pieces of energy. Lift off... Yep, if only that phase could happen a few hundred miles Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Even though this is not going to be our storm, it's still wild to see a map like what the gfs is showing in the 66 to 72 hour frames. This is something that you're used to seeing in the 300+ hours of the gfs, not 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I counted 4 significant vort maxes that fed into that monster. Big trough coming behind into the west coast is likely kicking the east coast system along and not allowing it to slow down and intensify. Also, no substantial blocking to the north to slow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still think GFS overhypes Northern stream energy to much, So I beleive the Euro has it about right, which means Mobil to upper SC coast track then on OTS keaving DC North with zilch, Temps aint gonna be there for MBY. Probably a blessing No CAD/NE HP is set up right or I;d be in a big ice event with this track. Gonna watch it play out. just to see if the Euro still owns the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll hope for solution #1 and with a gallon of gas stop by Big Frosty's to sleigh ride. You mean a boat ride!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That 1032 high sitting around Pa. at 123 is kind of a slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z UKMET is OTS, double barrel 995 off NC, maybe implying a late phase over the MS river into TN Valley, unsure without the in betweens, but would assume such. No clue on temps, <548dm hieghts encompassing most of NC at 96 hrs with two local surface mins off HAT/VA Capes. Verbatim hard to imagine precip making it much further than N VA given the surface track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 0z UKMET is OTS, double barrel 995 off NC, maybe implying a late phase over the MS river into TN Valley, unsure without the in betweens, but would assume such. No clue on temps, <548dm hieghts encompassing most of NC at 96 hrs with two local surface mins off HAT/VA Capes. Verbatim hard to imagine precip making it much further than N VA given the surface track. Predominant P-type rain or do some get lucky per UKMET? Sounds like a little potential still..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Predominant P-type rain or do some get lucky per UKMET? Sounds like a little potential still..... Predominat p-type likely RN for anyone south of VA, hard to tell about a changeover as it pulls away based on the meteociel maps, just going off of track and 500 mb hieghts. Central VA would be the best bet for sig winter wx from the looks of it, matches up nicely with the Canadian, Euro still out but I am not staying up for that tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Predominat p-type likely RN for anyone south of VA, hard to tell about a changeover as it pulls away based on the meteociel maps, just going off of track and 500 mb hieghts. Central VA would be the best bet for sig winter wx from the looks of it, matches up nicely with the Canadian, Euro still out but I am not staying up for that tonight. Thanks.....since I'm very near Va border I'm still holding out hope for some backside token flakes if nothing else.....maybe all I see this winter. Euro certainly hasn't waivered much I'll be surprised if it looks much different from last nights or today's run. Thanks for the response.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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