tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Too much being made of the 18z NAM. It is often west and wet. HP center is NOT in a bad spot. Move the low a little further east (or keep it ots) and move the hp a little further east over w NY, and there you have it. Too much being made of the 18z NAM at 84 hrs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pulling for you TW, but cold air is sorely lacking, and has been the case all along. All of that junk (troughiness) over the Great Lakes doesn't get out of the way and consolidate into a nice 50/50 low in time to get the cold air in here. All we really have to work with is cool Pacific air behind tomorrow's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Too much being made of the 18z NAM. It is often west and wet. HP center is NOT in a bad spot. Move the low a little further east (or keep it ots) and move the hp a little further east over w NY, and there you have it. Too much being made of the 18z NAM at 84 hrs. TW I agree. Though, the trend is a bit NW per HPC. NAM can go a bit crazy at that time frame. Now, what worries me is it is really warm today. Going to have a very strong storm to erode that - but it could happen. Definitely haven' t lost interest yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z NAM is an Apps runner it appears. Just one of the many possible solutions. It is my opinion that this storm will be pretty strong. It's an absolute shame more cold is not depicted on the models. Wish the high in the plains was a bit stronger. Maybe the one hope we all have is for the storm to really bomb out - unlikely but w/in the realm possibility. Nina is playing havoc with this system. Just curious - why does La Nina get so much credit (speaking in general - that has been the MO for NWS GSP, etc.)? Iv'e had more rain this season than I can ever remember having. The hyped Pacific Jet has been the culprit pretty much all season. Last year, it was a stubborn -NAO that trumped the supposed La Nina we were in. I hear the "abnormally weak", or "abnormally moderate"...whatever adjective that can be used to explain why the results have not been in line with the supposed phenomenon. I wonder if it's not more of just an easy way for forecast outlets to classify and pacify. As always, this is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think what we're going to see play out over the next 48 hours or so is the northern stream energy come in stronger, which would result in a stronger 50/50 and a stronger push of cold air and potentially more cold being drawn into the system, depending on phasing. In the end, it'll probably still be a marginal event for those outside the mountains. But I think it'll still be close enough to keep our interest piqued. Still waiting for that guarantee, but this will do for now In all seriousness, I think you're in the ballpark man. We are going to get our 50/50 in SE Canada, probably a little stronger than what was advertised today. There is likely to be some interaction between the streams, but not perfect to result in a MECS. Event stays marginal enough to keep some in the game and us interested, but in the end, temps in the mid-upper 30's as the backside comes through. Area of greatest potential bounded by Mt. Airy - Richmond - Norfolk (draw a triangle), as the slp begins to bomb off the Carolina coast before heading OTS. Verifies a little colder than the 12z Euro for reasons stated above, but not enough to do us much good. I am all in on the 12z Euro, expect the 0z to trend slightly cooler and deeper coming off around southern SC to a position within about 100 miles of HAT. If this were vegas and I had some money to spend, I would not bet against it, would you? If you look back over the last 4-5 days of model runs and get rid of all the noise/run-to-run perturbations, a picture starts to come in focus painting a band from about Mt Airy up through Richmond, trend that a little colder inside 48 and hey, pretty nice SN for them. Kinda like what we saw at day 10, just subdued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well you've got to hand it to the GFS, it has it's solution and it's sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18Z GFS is cutting through the apps it appears with a quicker phase/interaction and a stronger low. edit : Strange, then the things drifts northeast and goes coastal. Like Burger said the NE gets it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From what I can tell it looks like we will be getting around 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain with temps in the upper 40's to low 50' in my area and not much bettter for you NC people. Maybe the highest elevations will see some upper 30's but I just don't see and frozen precip anywhere near the SE United States for this storm. Someone prove me wrong but between the models and climatology there is nothing to see as far as frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z just wrecks the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z just wrecks the NE. It's a winter hurricane on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This thing could spit out some/very little snow on the NW side as it gets cranked up for parts of western and maybe central TN. BL looks to be an issue but 850's look supportive. With the way the thing is winding up as it move northeast this could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Per 18Z Goofy: some CAD induced ZR possible for W NC? Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not a triple phase as in the true sense of Arctic, polar and sub-tropical jets phasing, but the 18z GFS is very close to phasing 3-4 parcels around 78hrs (absolute cluster fluck), looks like 3 eventually start hooking up around 87hrs, T minus 0 and liftoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Per 18Z Goofy: some CAD induced ZR possible for W NC? Opinions? Fits the Miller B scenario with a mixed bag of crap dominate p-type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 still think all nc mtns will see accumulating snowfall sat. and sun. and foothills and piedmont a cold rain, maybe a little snow on the front end sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The ski resorts from WV and NE are going to love this thing if it ends up being close to the 18Z GFS run. Looks like the System deepens to under 970mb as it moves away form the mainland. Wow, that's a powerhouse storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just curious - why does La Nina get so much credit (speaking in general - that has been the MO for NWS GSP, etc.)? Iv'e had more rain this season than I can ever remember having. The hyped Pacific Jet has been the culprit pretty much all season. Last year, it was a stubborn -NAO that trumped the supposed La Nina we were in. I hear the "abnormally weak", or "abnormally moderate"...whatever adjective that can be used to explain why the results have not been in line with the supposed phenomenon. I wonder if it's not more of just an easy way for forecast outlets to classify and pacify. As always, this is just my opinion. Very atypical Nina's during the past two winters - agreed. We are not playing with the same climo deck as the 90s and that is good. The first Nina winter was brutally cold and this year, as you say, it has been wet. Someone posted, a red tagger, that Nina characteristics are changing and had a .gov website that tracks ENSO trends. This winter has been very Nino here IMO as a matter of fact in the precip realm. . What seems Nina-ish is the strong SE ridge that tends to buckle northward and makes what look like good winter storms get warm and go west of the SE. Also, this winter has been warm per Nina climo so that piece of the puzzle fits. Sutherland also states that K storms are rare birds in Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 rain for me too on Long Island if this is right, but man will the winds be howling with a track like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow, expect to see a couple 980-something bombs going up the Apps this run, crazy storm, 18z op was not far off from, this could get ugly folks, not in the sense of RN vs SN, but rather svr weather inside the triple point of this sucker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Still waiting for that guarantee, but this will do for now In all seriousness, I think you're in the ballpark man. We are going to get our 50/50 in SE Canada, probably a little stronger than what was advertised today. There is likely to be some interaction between the streams, but not perfect to result in a MECS. Event stays marginal enough to keep some in the game and us interested, but in the end, temps in the mid-upper 30's as the backside comes through. Area of greatest potential bounded by Mt. Airy - Richmond - Norfolk (draw a triangle), as the slp begins to bomb off the Carolina coast before heading OTS. Verifies a little colder than the 12z Euro for reasons stated above, but not enough to do us much good. I am all in on the 12z Euro, expect the 0z to trend slightly cooler and deeper coming off around southern SC to a position within about 100 miles of HAT. If this were vegas and I had some money to spend, I would not bet against it, would you? If you look back over the last 4-5 days of model runs and get rid of all the noise/run-to-run perturbations, a picture starts to come in focus painting a band from about Mt Airy up through Richmond, trend that a little colder inside 48 and hey, pretty nice SN for them. Kinda like what we saw at day 10, just subdued... Nah, I wouldn't bet against that either. I'd think if we do migrate back toward a better 50/50, who and who doesn't see snow will come down to where and how much phasing occurs (which has already been said like a thousand times). I'd like to see strong phasing start over southern GA or northern FL, but I don't see how that can really happen given the lack of a strong ridge out west. What you described above is the most likely outcome in my opinion. A lot of those who might see snow outside of the mountains would have to rely on dynamics if this scenario were to play out... and that's not a great position to be in. But I guess after this crappy winter, any hope is worth chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow, expect to see a couple 980-something bombs going up the Apps this run, crazy storm, 18z op was not far off from, this could get ugly folks, not in the sense of RN vs SN, but rather svr weather inside the triple point of this sucker... Good post and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nah, I wouldn't bet against that either. I'd think if we do migrate back toward a better 50/50, who and who doesn't see snow will come down to where and how much phasing occurs (which has already been said like a thousand times). I'd like to see strong phasing start over southern GA or northern FL, but I don't see how that can really happen given the lack of a strong ridge out west. What you described above is the most likely outcome in my opinion. A lot of those who might see snow outside of the mountains would have to rely on dynamics if this scenario were to play out... and that's not a great position to be in. But I guess after this crappy winter, any hope is worth chasing. I think you nailed this......It will come down to two things. First is the strength of the 50/50 low and next is the position of the system at the time of the phase. I doubt that we will see a large swing in the models at this stage, but it could still trend a little each run and be good come verification time. I will not loose hope until it's within 24 hours and the models continue to show a warm solution. The GFS and NAM are still in disagreement on how they handle this storm. Many solutions are still on the table and this is far from being settled. That is the part of "model watching" that keeps us coming back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 not giving up yet. models have a lot of flopping to do and they may just flip for the southeast area to get a snow storm. hey this has happened before when it looked like no cold air was around and about 2 days out all of a sudden the models showed a good winter storm for the upper southeast. so don't give up yet. this storm will track to the ga. coast and that is the perfect track for e. tenn. wnc and upstate sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well you've got to hand it to the GFS, it has it's solution and it's sticking to it. Lol, I don't know, man, Goofy just took half my rain tomorrow and gave it to the weekend storm. Pretty much the opposite of earlier runs. I think there is still some Goofy juice being snorted Don't think I'll believe anything I see until I look out the window this weekend. Like the sleet the other night. If I'd listened to the models, and the forecasts, I'd have missed a few hours of sleet! I could have gone to bed after the first batch turned to rain, but I stayed up because I'd heard reports out of Ala., and saw something. I think this thing ends up further south, and further back, based on the way Goofy thinks when it's on Goofy juice. Probably still rain here, and maybe everywhere, but it's closer than it looks. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol, I don't know, man, Goofy just took half my rain tomorrow and gave it to the weekend storm. Pretty much the opposite of earlier runs. I think there is still some Goofy juice being snorted Don't think I'll believe anything I see until I look out the window this weekend. Like the sleet the other night. If I'd listened to the models, and the forecasts, I'd have missed a few hours of sleet! I could have gone to bed after the first batch turned to rain, but I stayed up because I'd heard reports out of Ala., and saw something. I think this thing ends up further south, and further back, based on the way Goofy thinks when it's on Goofy juice. Probably still rain here, and maybe everywhere, but it's closer than it looks. T Now the NAM is trying to take the bulk of your precip away...but you sitll get a good bit. NAM and Goofy are basically twins now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting NAM run, sure as hell looks like a Miller B, W TN may be getting slammed, unsure about BL but 850s are there, central AR too... DC weenies going to shove all in this run, likely a mixed bag of crap for the central apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Now the NAM is trying to take the bulk of your precip away...but you sitll get a good bit. NAM and Goofy are basically twins now. Yeah, I look out into Goofy's misty future hallucinations and see tons of rain, but so far this month I've gotten squat, lol. Jan. was much better for rain, but that ain't saying much, lol. I did see my coldest, best windy winter day in Feb. so it wins in my book. I think I'm going to like March even better...and tell the truth, I'd rather a late winter than one like last year that was over after the first week of Feb. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting NAM run, sure as hell looks like a Miller B, W TN may be getting slammed, unsure about BL but 850s are there, central AR too... DC weenies going to shove all in this run, likely a mixed bag of crap for the central apps... SV maps paint a very small trip in northern VA...I've noticed their maps do pretty well when it's all said and done since they are usually on the conservative side. Nothing in AR but you would think with the moisture the NAM has someone there would just get crushed. lol Miller A to Miller B in the matter of a day...gotta love it..I mean hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks to me like the mountains, northern foothills, and maybe even the northwest piedmont change over possibly to an accumulating snow. 850's really sweep se after 75 hours. I'm optimistic. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks to me like the mountains, northern foothills, and maybe even the northwest piedmont change over possibly to an accumulating snow. 850's really sweep se after 75 hours. I'm optimistic. TW lol are you looking at the NAM? Not even close with 850's let alone thickness. NAM is just a whole lotta rain and more rain for everyone in NC out to 84...beyond that it might be some flakes on the backside but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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