burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z GFS ens mean @ 96hrs, maybe giving an early indication where the ens members are heading... Not good (TN folks excluded), obviously, signal growing stronger for a deepening low situated on or just off the NC/VA coast at day 4. HPC model disco from around 11:30am, wonder if they saw the 12z UKMET yet ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE Anyone remember the write-up prior to the 12/26/10 storm, something about "all the models appear to be suffering from feedback." 12z UKMET is actually just inland at 96, Newport News/Norfolk area Model madness at it's best...with the UKMet looking how it does I have a bad feeling about the Euro...but the way things are going it's likely to show a raging blizzard for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll give that cold rain guarantee below 1,200 FT; say likely below 2,000 FT; and, maybe even below 3,000 FT except for the very end. Though models have not exactly converged on track, surface highs, north/south stream interaction, or phasing issues, none are showing cold enough. Some have the phasing introducing too much WAA up-front for the back edge to even matter. Some have non-phasing tracking too far south and not pulling in cold air to areas with precip. Everything in between is too warm also. GSP and MRX have both basically punted except maybe mountains. Even the mountains will struggle. Like GSP says highest elevations might start as ice due to immediate sfc air. Then WAA aloft and no CAD, no CAD just like Monday night but much warmer, spells rain even in the mountains. Though 546 can get it done above 3,000 FT, the 552 won't work when it starts this mild. The warm nose aloft GSP talks about prevents. Unlike the lower elevation cold rain guarantee, mountains should switch to snow on the back side. It won't be until thickness drops below 546; right at 546 probably won't do. If a comma head develops then accumulation would still be in the cards in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For the past couple days I have felt this storm could be our last chance for something good east of the mountains. Those hopes looks to have washed away. Bring on severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Biggest missing piece is a really good cold high pressure system. I really can't see this trending towards what we need. Missing a 50/50 low, also the energy over the lakes is not going to help us but it could mean kaboom for the northeast if the track is right. that seems to be the biggest missing piece all winter so far. other than a few quick cold shots, there just hasnt been the abundance of cold air like the last few years. evap cooling, dynamics etc can work for some areas, but really without a supply of cold air a big snow storm just doesnt appear too likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Quick glance over the 12z GFS mems coming out on e-wall, spread appears to be narrowing but still a fair amount of difference in specifics. Maybe 1/4 still picking up on some energy near the lakes, a couple MECS KU types in there, p001 runs a mid 980's into central TN before transferring it off the Delmarva, 3 maybe offering a slight hope for changeover in NC but marginal at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll give that cold rain guarantee below 1,200 FT; say likely below 2,000 FT; and, maybe even below 3,000 FT except for the very end. Though models have not exactly converged on track, surface highs, north/south stream interaction, or phasing issues, none are showing cold enough. Some have the phasing introducing too much WAA up-front for the back edge to even matter. Some have non-phasing tracking too far south and not pulling in cold air to areas with precip. Everything in between is too warm also. GSP and MRX have both basically punted except maybe mountains. Even the mountains will struggle. Like GSP says highest elevations might start as ice due to immediate sfc air. Then WAA aloft and no CAD, no CAD just like Monday night but much warmer, spells rain even in the mountains. Though 546 can get it done above 3,000 FT, the 552 won't work when it starts this mild. The warm nose aloft GSP talks about prevents. Unlike the lower elevation cold rain guarantee, mountains should switch to snow on the back side. It won't be until thickness drops below 546; right at 546 probably won't do. If a comma head develops then accumulation would still be in the cards in the mountains. <Flag> Improper deployment of the Cold Rain guarantee. 15 yard penalty. Replay the down. But as it turns out, you're likely to be right with your assessment. This whole thing is turning out way too warm...marginal at the very best. I don't expect the Euro to show a better scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well already Euro looks like it's going to be different from 12z GFS. @72 looks further south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @78 LP tracking across SE LA...looks to be a blend between the Canadian and the GFS but we'll see where it goes. Too warm @78 across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @90 it's hard to tell where the low is maybe just north of the FL panhandle? It certainly looks nothing like the GFS no moisture past NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @90 it's hard to tell where the low is maybe just north of the FL panhandle? It certainly looks nothing like the GFS no moisture past NC 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 850 temps? No where near close...though it is pulling cold temps down on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @102 moisture is getting thrown into NC and it's close at 850's for WNC. Line runs along I-40. Race for the cold air to get there. One problem though is thickness...probably not conducive for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @108 it's pulling away light moisture still around. 850 line runs from just north of ATL to CAE to PGV to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This run might be snow for RDU on the back side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @102 moisture is getting thrown into NC and it's close at 850's for WNC. Line runs along I-40. Race for the cold air to get there. One problem though is thickness...probably not conducive for snow. Euro seems locked into this solution, it's virtually identical to the 0z run as far as I can tell. Quite the model showdown developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro says NO to the NE and MA...let the cliff diving for them begin. Moisture never really makes it north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro says NO to the NE and MA...let the cliff diving for them begin. Moisture never really makes it north of NC. At least this run is "better" for the SE....seeing temps cold enough even on the back end for snow at RDU is something and not just because it's MBY...at least it's not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At least this run is "better" for the SE....seeing temps cold enough even on the back end for snow at RDU is something and not just because it's MBY...at least it's not the GFS. Well I think that's a big IF it's conducive for snow on the back end. It's certainly a race between the cold air and moisture leaving. Bad thing about every run is the SFC temps but if we could at least get some token flakes out of the dammed thing I would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For the past couple days I have felt this storm could be our last chance for something good east of the mountains. Those hopes looks to have washed away. Bring on severe weather season. I am with ya. Bring on warmer weather. I said that I would not waver until around the 15th. As for now, the towel is not thrown in, but I am real close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At least this run is "better" for the SE....seeing temps cold enough even on the back end for snow at RDU is something and not just because it's MBY...at least it's not the GFS. Yeah, we probably would see some flakes, per the Euro, not many though. We need it a smidge more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro says NO to the NE and MA...let the cliff diving for them begin. Moisture never really makes it north of NC. actually the .5 line makes it up to near RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Can anyone with decent euro maps pontificate on the western carolinas? ie. relationship of cold air and moisture. Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 After looking at all the 12z data , my latest thoughts http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/an-update-on-the-possibilities-of-snow-this-weekend-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 actually the .5 line makes it up to near RIC RIC gets roughly .3" with half of it with 850's below zero. RDU gets an 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 actually the .5 line makes it up to near RIC It's close but that line is very sharp...but certainly nothing to get excited over if you're in the MA and definitely not the run you want if you are in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro says NO to the NE and MA...let the cliff diving for them begin. Moisture never really makes it north of NC. Bulk of the moisture moves through central NC (from I77-95 roughly) between 102-114 hrs, at 102 2mT maybe into the upper 30's for GSO / areas just N & W of CLT, @ 108, most of NC is in the 30's, although any <32F at the surface is confined to the NW mountains. Comparing to 0z, about the same @ 850 valid Sun 1pm, 0C isotherm runs from south of Richmond to around Mooresville, slightly colder than 0z along 77 in NC, but more WAA into the Coastal Plain. I do like that ~1000mb coming off the SC coast just north of CHS at 102hrs though, still kind of strung out, but better defined and stronger compared to 0z. @ 114 looks like 988 a couple hundred miles east of HAT. Summation, it cooled slightly from 0z, certainly stronger, but still no dice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 After looking at all the 12z data , my latest thoughts http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/an-update-on-the-possibilities-of-snow-this-weekend-the-southeast Interesting your not punting yet...I would be happy with a slushy inch on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Bulk of the moisture moves through central NC (from I77-95 roughly) between 102-114 hrs, at 102 2mT maybe into the upper 30's for GSO / areas just N & W of CLT, @ 108, most of NC is in the 30's, although any <32F at the surface is confined to the NW mountains. Comparing to 0z, about the same @ 850 valid Sun 1pm, 0C isotherm runs from south of Richmond to around Mooresville, slightly colder than 0z along 77 in NC, but more WAA into the Coastal Plain. I do like that ~1000mb coming off the SC coast just north of CHS at 102hrs though, still kind of strung out, but better defined and stronger compared to 0z. @ 114 looks like 988 a couple hundred miles east of HAT. Summation, it cooled slightly from 0z, certainly stronger, but still no dice... It did look close once the low moved just off shore....at this point who knows, but Allan has the right of it; best bet is to go with the Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks Allan! I am inclined to agree with you and trust the ECMWF more than any of the other solutions due to it's consistency. After looking at all the 12z data , my latest thoughts http://www.examiner....d-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 After looking at all the 12z data , my latest thoughts http://www.examiner....d-the-southeast Great read...thanks Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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