RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 My issue with the GFS starts around 51-54 hrs, not buying that the southern stream just opens up like that... Vort is strong and my best guess is the GFS is having some difficulty resolving that, at 54 you can see all that energy near the base, and to envision that somehow it just opens up between 51 and 54 hrs is a stretch. Especially when looking at the difference between this run and the 9z SREF open wave in S TX... compared to potent ULL still in MX yeah I think the GFS is too quick mostly because it opens up the Southwest system and allows more interaction with the northern stream I certianly am not bullish at the moment for the soutehast, but I dont think the GFS scenario is what will ultimately happen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Gawx - I think it's a common misconception. But look at hour 90on the dgex and compare to hour 84 on the nam. And again - if you read the dgex site, it says it pretty clearly. I got it backwards in my first post, but that's why it looks like it goes crazy when the nam looks good at 84 and dissimilar from the gfs at the same hour. Ok, I just compared the 6Z DGEX with the 0Z/6Z NAM and the 0Z/6Z GFS at 500 mb. The 90 hour 6Z DGEX has NW to WNW 500 mb flow into the NE US, which looks a whole lot more like the 78/84 hour NAM maps than the 78/84 GFS maps, which have more of a WSW to SW flow into the NE US. I believe that this is pretty good evidence that the DGEX is, indeed, handed off the 78 hour NAM solution as opposed to the 78 hour GFS solution. Anyone disagree? DGEX link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Situation is looking very bleak for the entire NC. Really hope this changes, but it does not look good. The AO is + now and the NAO has gone -. So this would concur with the models running the storm up the east coast. Agreed. Is there any model left out there showing snow for the midsouth other than the mountains? The last one I remember was Tuesday morning's 0Z GFS which gave a bit of snow. Monday's 12Z Euro was the one that got everyone excited, But since then, it's been all rain from all the models. Just curious why we seem to be holding out hope. To me it doesn't even look close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Situation is looking very bleak for the entire NC. Really hope this changes, but it does not look good. The AO is + now and the NAO has gone -. So this would concur with the models running the storm up the east coast. You're make some assumptions the GFS is correct. With the wild swings from one model run to the next I wouldn't trust the GFS AT ALL. With that said, I'm pulling my hair out trying to determine what's going to happen this weekend. No one knows and if they say they do, they're lying. You'd think with the modern technology of today's world we would have better modeling data to use, but I guess it shows you the complexity of weather. As much as it can be frustrating, its why I chose this as a profession!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If the CMC stays in line with it's previous runs and the NAM...the GooFuS is probably out to lunch. Gotta see what the good Doc has to say about this as well. What a disaster this must be for anyone paid to make a forecast. At this point I would probably go with sunny and 50 as well I mean why not? I think the reason not to is that they all show a storm. For our area in central NC, the precip will be sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. If I was making a forecast for the triad, I'd go increasing clouds Saturday and 48, Rain developing by daybreak on Sunday, low 36. Rain Sunday with a high around 40. I think it is obvious that rain is coming and from the temps i list for Saturday night/Sunday, there is some wiggle room. As much as I lambast NWS for not mentioning winter weather when there is a chance, I don't see this situation as it stands @ 11:30am to mention anything wintry in the forecast. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The Canadian remains much slower than the GFS and closest to the NAM. At 72 hours the Canadian has a closed 500mb low south of the western tip of Texas over northern Mexico, the NAM is actually even further east, the 12z GFS has an open trough over central Texas. In fact it is even slower than the 00z Canadian. At 84 hours the Canadian has a 1000-1004mb low just south of Brownsville with precip along the Gulf coast, at the same time the 12z GFS has a 1000mb low near ATlanta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Canadian model is still closed off @ 72 hours. I do not see the phantom low pressure modeled on the GFS at the lakes. Still closed @ 84HR in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Of course after I post that, take a look at the UKMET and it looks like the GFS, at-least at 96hrs, ~995 off the VA Capes, maybe a little too far east for a NE hit based on 120hrs, but not by much Someone in the MA a day ago talked about how the Euro seems to always follow the UKMet with systems like this so that might be a bad sign. What will the CMC have for us? The big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is probably well and good, it was going to be tough for us to get snow, hopefully the mountains and points NE get a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Comparing 12z Canadian to 0z run (84 hours vs. 96 hours) 500 low on the new 12z is SLOWER and a touch stronger -- appears to me (damn b/w maps!) to be more separated from northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The Canadian remains much slower than the GFS and closest to the NAM. At 72 hours the Canadian has a closed 500mb low south of the western tip of Texas over northern Mexico, the NAM is actually even further east, the 12z GFS has an open trough over central Texas. In fact it is even slower than the 00z Canadian. At 84 hours the Canadian has a 1000-1004mb low just south of Brownsville with precip along the Gulf coast, at the same time the 12z GFS has a 1000mb low near ATlanta! Wow....eventually one model will start to key in on the correct solution. I hope its before Friday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From Midlo in the MA thread, past 6 runs of the GFS all valid 1pm Sunday... If the Euro is similar to the GFS/UKMET at 96hr with a deepening surface low near or just off the VA Capes, stick a fork in this one guys. Good track for central TN, WV, up into the interior MA and NE. SE weenies we got skunked, NE weenies get there KU event, bring on Spring! Edit: Disregard, we still have the Canadian solution to contend with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From Midlo in the MA thread, past 6 runs of the GFS all valid 1pm Sunday... If the Euro is similar to the GFS/UKMET at 96hr with a deepening surface low near or just off the VA Capes, stick a fork in this one guys. Good track for central TN, WV, up into the interior MA and NE. SE weenies we got skunked, NE weenies get there KU event, bring on Spring! Edit: Disregard, we still have the Canadian solution to contend with... I sort of agree, hopefully we can keep the Euro on our side. From the sounds of things the Canadian is still bullish with it's solution and with the NAM somewhat on board that's a good sign. If not I'll be willing to call it dead at tomorrow's 12z runs...but then again I'm a bit of weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Candian is supressed keeps weaker low with further south track, almost no precip it look like north of VA/NC border. Colder run with snow across NC/E TN/Upstate SC I would guess but havent see the thermal maps yet. Thicknesses look lower so i would imagine a colder than 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL -- Canadian slides out to sea -- virtually no precip for N.C.!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Candian is supressed keeps weaker low with further south track, almost no precip it look like north of VA/NC border. Colder run with snow across NC/E TN/Upstate SC I would guess but havent see the thermal maps yet. Thicknesses look lower so i would imagine a colder than 00z solution. Wow the roller coaster continues. This is true model madness. Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Canadian really flattens the wave out and is OTS. Precip never really makes it north of NC, and 850's are only marginally supportive along the VA boarder counties, imagine BL would not be. Hard to tell on temps through with the meteociel maps, but it looks nothing like the gfs/ukmet, this was an OTS and suppressed run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You're make some assumptions the GFS is correct. With the wild swings from one model run to the next I wouldn't trust the GFS AT ALL. With that said, I'm pulling my hair out trying to determine what's going to happen this weekend. No one knows and if they say they do, they're lying. You'd think with the modern technology of today's world we would have better modeling data to use, but I guess it shows you the complexity of weather. As much as it can be frustrating, its why I chose this as a profession!! I know the variance in the models are high right now, but i'm seeing a consensus starting to emerge in the last two days. The majority of the models are featured a rain type event with temps being too warm for other precip. The current rising AO would back that up. And I have seen the models starting to curve the storm up that coast with the NAO going negative in recent days. I know people are still trying to grab the dwindling amount of chips(model ensembles/non-global models), but the chips appear to be getting less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Amazing to see the differences @ 96HR between even the GFS and Canadian. GFS is close to a huge snowstorm in NE while the Canadian looks like it doesn't drop any precip up the NE coast! Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I thought I remembered that the Canadian is usually the model that has the furthest north/west track in the days leading up to our typical winter events when compared to the other models. Maybe I "misremembered." I also know that this has not been the typical winter. Candian is supressed keeps weaker low with further south track, almost no precip it look like north of VA/NC border. Colder run with snow across NC/E TN/Upstate SC I would guess but havent see the thermal maps yet. Thicknesses look lower so i would imagine a colder than 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't really understand this run of the Canadian -- was comparing it to 0z run -- the 5h low was stronger and slower on the 12z, yet the surface reflection was substantially weaker. Help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 From Midlo in the MA thread, past 6 runs of the GFS all valid 1pm Sunday... If the Euro is similar to the GFS/UKMET at 96hr with a deepening surface low near or just off the VA Capes, stick a fork in this one guys. Good track for central TN, WV, up into the interior MA and NE. SE weenies we got skunked, NE weenies get there KU event, bring on Spring! Edit: Disregard, we still have the Canadian solution to contend with... Well, the NW portions of the SE, back this way, look decent with that depiction. But, would be nice for a solution that dumps on us all to materialize. After this winter, that is what we all need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Candian is supressed keeps weaker low with further south track, almost no precip it look like north of VA/NC border. Colder run with snow across NC/E TN/Upstate SC I would guess but havent see the thermal maps yet. Thicknesses look lower so i would imagine a colder than 00z solution. LOL -- Canadian slides out to sea -- virtually no precip for N.C.!!!! This sounds like two totally different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not really -- couple MM of liquid for most of the state -- only significant precip is south of N.C. line. This sounds like two totally different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't really understand this run of the Canadian -- was comparing it to 0z run -- the 5h low was stronger and slower on the 12z, yet the surface reflection was substantially weaker. Help? Dry air monster? Very odd from what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not really -- couple MM of liquid for most of the state -- only significant precip is south of N.C. line. This is at 108, like like 2-5mm over the Triangle between 12z Sun - 00z Monday. That is around 0.08 to 0.2 inches of qpf. 120 color not out yet but black and white looked like a few more mm (maybe 5 mm). So maybe 0.25 to 0.4 inches of QPF by lookign at these grainy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't really understand this run of the Canadian -- was comparing it to 0z run -- the 5h low was stronger and slower on the 12z, yet the surface reflection was substantially weaker. Help? It looks like the 0z run had some partial northern stream phasing, which was absent on the 12z run. Also, there is a vort max that dives into S California at 96 that wasn't there on the 0z run, and that dampens the western flank of the wave in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z GFS ens mean @ 96hrs, maybe giving an early indication where the ens members are heading... Not good (TN folks excluded), obviously, signal growing stronger for a deepening low situated on or just off the NC/VA coast at day 4. HPC model disco from around 11:30am, wonder if they saw the 12z UKMET yet ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE Anyone remember the write-up prior to the 12/26/10 storm, something about "all the models appear to be suffering from feedback." 12z UKMET is actually just inland at 96, Newport News/Norfolk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hope everyone in Charlotte has a umbrella for Monday Sunday . CMC only features a little precip at the end of the storm ending as snow N of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes, they threw the gfs out the day before. Even tho it was catching on to the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.