Cheeznado Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro massively different than the GFS- no big surprise. However, this only affects the NE and Mid-Atlantic if taken literally- it is warmer than the 12Z run, all rain for everyone basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like we have a Euro/UKMet match....hug the NAM when you go to bed tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 EURO, GFS, CMC = No snow for the Piedmont of NC. But hopefully tomorrow will bring forth optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NC mountains DO get some snow on Sunday if you take it verbatim.There was actually a frame before the first one with a few areas of 1-2" = blue that I didn't include but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't give up yet guys... things might look pretty bleak right now, but honestly all solutions are on the table. The ECMWF is actually a good solution, but the surface low is not strong enough to draw in the cold air from further north. It would really be more useful if we saw a sub 1000 mb system at this point, which some of the GFS ensembles actually show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Tons of moisture on this run. GA is getting a heck of a lot of rain so that should make T happy at the very least. Gfs is giving me near 2 inches by Mon. so, yep, that would be a good week, but what has me excited is seeing the energy finally showing up in the country. I'd rather see the low out of Ga., of course, but I think we'll have chances coming, even if this stays sour for the next few days. I haven't been overly impressed with the model consistency, lol, so I expect to see some more wrinkles before it's over. But, yeah, if that low has to come thru here, then at least it is bringing the rain to parts of Ga. that really need it. And as long as cold continues to show up, and the southern stream carries the juice, then we'll have good chances.T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Figured I post this. It's interesting to note how close the Euro looks on this run compared to when it first showed that system. Placement and strength of the storm are almost the same, the exception being how cold the 850s are: Old 12z Euro at 240 (On Feb. 10): Latest 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 6Z Goofy still says essentially nada for the vast majority of NC. This run has little even for the mountains even though it is a little further south/weaker. As some have mentioned, a stronger low would increase chances for parts of NC via dynamic cooling as it exits because there isn't already a good source of cold to its north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 KGSP: MODEL SOUNDING SHOW TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL DURING THE EVENT PERIOD...SO PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT HIGHER PEAKS OF NC MOUNTAINS WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME FZ RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE SURFACE TEMPS DROPS BELOW FREEZING LVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NAM and GFS are still worlds apart both on the SFC and with the energy placement. We can at least take comfort in that. The NAM maintaining the cutoff in TX with a descent one in SE Canada as well. Cold temps filtering down into NC at 84hrs. Also slower with the energy out west. Something new the 6z NAM is doing is bringing some energy on it's backside...does this act as a kicker or does it dampen out our energy? It may be gone by 12z but should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't give up yet guys... things might look pretty bleak right now, but honestly all solutions are on the table. The ECMWF is actually a good solution, but the surface low is not strong enough to draw in the cold air from further north. It would really be more useful if we saw a sub 1000 mb system at this point, which some of the GFS ensembles actually show. Thanks for the input Phil! Always good seeing you around these parts (which has been fart too often due to this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't give up yet guys... things might look pretty bleak right now, but honestly all solutions are on the table. The ECMWF is actually a good solution, but the surface low is not strong enough to draw in the cold air from further north. It would really be more useful if we saw a sub 1000 mb system at this point, which some of the GFS ensembles actually show. Thanks for sharing Phil, still a little bit of spread in the GFS ensemble, 0z Hearing the EC spaghetti charts are a mess at 108, no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's a shame we don't have the cold as the Euro track is a really good track for a NC winter storm. Even still, the Euro probably has 0.50" of precip with 850's less than +1, which is close. Surface is also warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 (which has been fart too often due to this winter). Indeed. This winter has been a real stinker. (Pardon my juvenile sense of humor.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 6Z GFS is really bad with this run, The atmosphere is way to warm at all levels for the weekend event and insures rain for everyone if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Figured I post this. It's interesting to note how close the Euro looks on this run compared to when it first showed that system. Placement and strength of the storm are almost the same, the exception being how cold the 850s are: Old 12z Euro at 240 (On Feb. 10): Latest 0z: Interesting.....note the cold in Canada is more impressive now and the HP strength and placement is similar.....just that we do not have a double HP extending down into the US and the LP is not wound up quite as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks for sharing Phil, still a little bit of spread in the GFS ensemble, 0z Hearing the EC spaghetti charts are a mess at 108, no surprise I posted this in the banter thread but it also belongs here. There is so much spread everywhere I have a feeling red taggers are doing this when trying to decide which model to go with: One thing that looks for sure right now is that whatever happens there will be a lot of qpf associated with it. Another note is that the 6z DGEX continues the trend of an Apps runner and slam for the NE from PA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Noticed that Ray at raysweather.com feels we may get a changeover to snow on the back side in the High Country towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Matthew East has a good discussion on his video this morning: http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2012/02/nice-weather-today-question-marks-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The euro changes to snow the lat half of the event from HKY west. Probably a few inches above 3,000ft. A solid .5 is snow in hky but temps below 900mb are in the upper 30's. The boundary layer is the issue. I honestly think the best solution is for this to trend a little slower allowing for that HP that is sliding in at the end of this system to get here a little quicker. Otherwise, as was mentioned earlier, the best solution may be to root for a stronger phased scenario, but I have always had my doubts about that given the lack of strong ridging out west. There is only so much phasing that can happen with a kicker coming in behind the system. I think a partial phase is the most likely and this turns into a mason/dixon line south event. But I believe there is still a window here for a lot of changes given the inconsistency on the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 6z gfs ensembles don't look very good to me. Most have the storm track too far inland. There are 2 members that delay the storm for about 12 hours, have a more favorable track, and give some of the SE some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 6z gfs ensembles don't look very good to me. Most have the storm track too far inland. There are 2 members that delay the storm for about 12 hours, have a more favorable track, and give some of the SE some snow. If we are going to stop the bleeding and start seeing a slow trend back towards the original colder solution advertised last Fri/Sat, today would be the day it happens. Just looked at the Canadian ensembles from the 0z run and there are a few offering hope for winter wx lovers in NC. Mainly the western part of the state and VA boarder counties, but this is still better than nothing at this range and implies several different outcomes are still on the table. 6z GFS ens I counted 5 (p00 2,4,5,8 & 10) that slow the system down and bring it through Sunday night, as opposed to Saturday night/Sunday morning on the others. Not surprisingly, these are also the colder members. Energy moving along the west coast into the desert sw is usually sampled pretty well at this range, my concern lies with what is going on in the data sparse region of NW Canada, always a wild card until those parcels come into the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Noticed that Ray at raysweather.com feels we may get a changeover to snow on the back side in the High Country towards the end of the event. All I have for this thread...is that is a pretty picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think this storm could be a heartbreaker for most with a great track but not enough cold air available. Just my early quick thoughts as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Interesting.....note the cold in Canada is more impressive now and the HP strength and placement is similar.....just that we do not have a double HP extending down into the US and the LP is not wound up quite as much. Biggest difference I see is that storm system in CO extending down into N MX, which turns the flow out of the south ahead of it, WAA, which prevents the high from building in and coming down of the backside of the departing Gulf low. Temps aside, excellent performance by the Euro @ 240 hrs, at-least compared to what we are seeing inside day 5 currently. 4-6C warmer for NC compared to that run last Fri, and 8-10C colder for N NE/Great Lakes region, go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If we are going to stop the bleeding and start seeing a slow trend back towards the original colder solution advertised last Fri/Sat, today would be the day it happens. Just looked at the Canadian ensembles from the 0z run and there are a few offering hope for winter wx lovers in NC. Mainly the western part of the state and VA boarder counties, but this is still better than nothing at this range and implies several different outcomes are still on the table. 6z GFS ens I counted 5 (p00 2,4,5,8 & 10) that slow the system down and bring it through Sunday night, as opposed to Saturday night/Sunday morning on the others. Not surprisingly, these are also the colder members. Energy moving along the west coast into the desert sw is usually sampled pretty well at this range, my concern lies with what is going on in the data sparse region of NW Canada, always a wild card until those parcels come into the northern Plains. NAM appears to keeping our energy out to the west slower and it's been pretty consistent with that. All kids of changes with the energy up north though run to run. The 12z NAM has that energy out west in the same spot the 00z had it for the time period. The cutoff in SE Canada also looks more potent on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think this storm could be a heartbreaker for most with a great track but not enough cold air available. Just my early quick thoughts as of now. As a non-professional, this is also my stance and has been my concern for the last two days that we get a great track, but just nothing that can introduce cold "enough" air to make for a big snow. It's really heartbreaking for those wanting snow (myself included) to see such a nice track for the southern apps with the potential for a ton of qpf and for all or most to be rain (in mid February no less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Interesting to compare the 6z GFS to the now-running 12z NAM -- especially early in the run when it's still in the NAM's sweet spot. A key feature on the 6z GFS at 48 hours is the small low centered over the Dakotas -- this has our high pressure pinned up in Canada. This feature is much weaker on the NAM. As a result cold air is already pushing farther south. It is also interesting to see an extra closed contour on our Baja low on the NAM vs. the GFS. Also, the surface low in the Great Lakes has an extra closed contour, which would, theoretically, pull down a bit more cold air. All of this main mean a near miss only becomes a REALLY near miss, but the 6z NAM sure had a good look to at in its extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Again, at 18z Friday, the 6z GFS has already opened up the 5h low -- the NAM still has two closed contours. The NAM also has a closed low north of NY which is not there on the GFS. This is at 54 hours on the NAM -- so still close to a good range for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I posted this in the banter thread but it also belongs here. There is so much spread everywhere I have a feeling red taggers are doing this when trying to decide which model to go with: One thing that looks for sure right now is that whatever happens there will be a lot of qpf associated with it. Another note is that the 6z DGEX continues the trend of an Apps runner and slam for the NE from PA north. Dude...check out my post in the Banter thread. Pretty much sums it up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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