0z model suite

[Allsnow]

hr 114 broad area of low pressue 1004 100 miles east of HSE

[Guest someguy]

looking at the 0z euro run the trough has phase at 120 hrs and the flow is NOT wsw-ene but sw to NE

in other words the flow seems like it should bring the low up the coast much closer

[Allsnow]

hr 132 992 low brushes the cape with light preciep.....the pieces came together a little to late in the run.

[Atlas]

great post DT,

The 500mb at 120 hours on the EURO is very good. Timing is everything...Lets see it play out, but I like where we sit.

[thunderman]

Couple people have said it already, but orientation of the height gradient vector like it is would likely pull this thing a little closer to the coast. Wish I had an intermediate 114 hour chart to look at though.

[SnowGoose69]

looking at the 0z euro run the trough has phase at 120 hrs and the flow is NOT wsw-ene but sw to NE

in other words the flow seems like it should bring the low up the coast much closer

Does anyone understand why this seems to be the case so often on model runs, I've seen this many times before and it was part of the reason the track was off on the January 2000 storm.

[SnowGoose69]

I have to be honest with people. I studied met. for 2 years in met school before deciding to change majors. I've followed wx/mdoels for 10 years. Do you expect the models to show a full out ragin blizzard every model run? No. All you have to look at 120 hours is the pattern. A lot of things will change. IT all depends how neg tilt the STJ can get and how much phase of the PV occurs. We also have to see where the "50-50" low decides to go.As other mets have stated, its about timing/phasing. This last storm this weekend went much farther NW then progged this far out. It usually goes this way during La Nina winters. Sit back and enjoy the ride!

There will be wild swings most likely from run to run until the responsible disturbance comes ashore on the West Coast...not always the case but usually there can be no high confidence either way until the 72-96 hour range, if at that time the majority of the runs of the GFS/Euro and the ensembles are still a miss then the chance of a hit starts dropping and then once inside 72 very unlikely...there have been exceptions like the 12/19 event last year which was basically still a miss at 72 hours, but that was not so much a phasing issue as it was that PV location over S Canada...this time there is somewhat of an issue with both if you ask me which makes it harder....generally the models don't blow a phase/no phase issue at the 72 hour mark that often.

[thunderman]

144hr GFS Ensemble Members:

[Ericjcrash]

Give me a mix of n004 and p005.

[SnowGoose69]

I just checked the NOGAPS, the NOGAPS as we all know has a major progressive bias so its often useful to look at it to see how progressive it is...in this case its extraordinarily progressive so it does not give us any added hope but its not a major concern yet either...if the NOGAPS was showing a track over the benchmark it would be a huge red flag that the Euro/GFS are more likely out to lunch...the NOGAPS was NOT progressive with this past storm which was a strong indicator early that the inland runner scenario was more likely.

[usedtobe]

I don't see much to change the odds for a big storm which for the mid atlantic between DC and NY has always been 25 percent or so. The gfs still has a storm but has edged it east. The euro still is a little too flat to get true phasing until the storm is off the coast. If that were a sharper trough on the euro I'd agree with Dave but I don't see the trof as being sharp enough to pull the low way west closer to the coast without changes to the 500h pattern. It's still close enough to being a good one that that could happen, but this remains a case where everything has to come together for there to be a big storm. Eastern Long Island and the Cape may be different story as they have a little more time for the system to get its act together. I still see the odds at for a good storm as being around 25 percent or so,

[Ed Lizard]

Today I am an Anglophile...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* A RETURN TO COLD WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THIS

PERIOD

* LOW PROBABILITY OF A WINTER STORM SAT NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY

MODEL PREFERENCES...

MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD /12Z WED/ BUT

THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL

INTERACT WITH UPSTREAM VORTEX OVER WESTERN CANADA AS NORTHEAST

VORTEX RETROGRADES. THIS IMPACTS THE FLOW EVOLUTION ACROSS THE

NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY THIS

WEEKEND WHEN THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS

ALONG/OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

00Z GFS/GEFS/ECMWF AND GGEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OFFSHORE

TRACK AS THESE MODELS PLACE POLAR VORTEX AND MEAN MID LEVEL TROF

AXIS TOO FAR EAST FOR A CLOSER STORM TRACK. INTERESTINGLY THE

UKMET CONTINUES TO BE MOST ROBUST AND WEST WITH A 972 MB LOW JUST

EAST OF CAPE ANN SUN EVENING! HPC INFORMS US /PREEPD/ THAT THE

12Z/13 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODEL

CONSENSUS. THEREFORE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE GFS MOS SAT NGT INTO

SUN SEEM REASONABLE. THUS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR AN ACCUMULATING

SNOW CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.