Ji Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Take that back. Height field not looking as good aloft. Not much height rises ahead of the wave...no self development and NW track off the coast. This is actually pretty good position for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Just looked. It seems fine. Closer than I expected based on the "escapes to the east" comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 looks like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Plenty of time to bring it NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Going back to what we were talking about at 12Z, I still think a noreaster hit is a small probability, inline with what usedtobe is thinking. Besides the tri-phase that needs to occur, one thing that really does not enthuse me for a good east coast hit is the lack of significant cold air. I find this 0Z GFS solution to be rather realistic because rapid cyclogenesis and positive feedback effects don't magically happen...and a slower development off the coast seems realistic. The small PV Anomaly lifting NE off the coast doesn't help because this system will be rather compact and will have to bomb for this to track farther NW along the coast to develop any significant weather along the coast. I will stick with a general 15% good east coast hit, 85% no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 looks like last year yep 1/30/10 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Who is DT? I am somewhat new here since I never posted at Eastern. It seems he must be some sort of forecasting genius the way he is talked about here. He's just some guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Who is DT? I am somewhat new here since I never posted at Eastern. It seems he must be some sort of forecasting genius the way he is talked about here. Dave Tolleris - DT or someguy. http://www.wxrisk.com/ is his website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Who is DT? I am somewhat new here since I never posted at Eastern. It seems he must be some sort of forecasting genius the way he is talked about here. He is a sweet talking met with a halo and wings. One of the nicest mets on the board with lethal forecasting skills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 He's just some guy. Dave Tolleris - DT or someguy. http://www.wxrisk.com/ is his website. He is a sweet talking met with a halo and wings. One of the nicest mets on the board with lethal forecasting skills Thanks, I didn't know someguy was DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ggem to 84 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Based on those GEM images it looks inline with GFS OP. Flat 500 height fields ahead of the shortwave are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's exactly where one would want the NWP at 120-144 hr for a significant I-95 DC-BOS hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. What was that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What was that storm? February 1-2 1996, southwest and central Virginia and the southern DC suburbs got 12-18 inches of snow from that storm and the heavy snow axis extended out to southern New Jersey. Still a nice snow north of that but not as heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What was that storm? The MA/southern NJ was hit hard on the 1st and early on the 2nd by the first wave dropping 6-12...the second wave the afternoon of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd hit the rest of the NE including NY and SNE with 6-18 inches...parts of coastal DE/NJ got around 18 total from the 2 events....just inland though saw very little...I think the 2nd wave gave 10 inches to NYC but only about 1-2 along the N-NJ/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. The only storm I remember from Feb 1996 was the one around V-day that dropped a foot here lol. I do remember the southern MA got another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. What was that storm? February 1-2 1996, southwest and central Virginia and the southern DC suburbs got 12-18 inches of snow from that storm and the heavy snow axis extended out to southern New Jersey. Still a nice snow north of that but not as heavy. Here are the NARR maps from PSU for that. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0202j3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. I guess I am not seeing a huge resemblance between the two setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The 00Z GEM looks very 2/1-2/2 1996ish just based on a rough scan of it. Foot storm down here-- Had a CRAZY sharp Snow/ IP gradient that split lynchburg. One news anchor at a local college with heavy snow-- went to another at the airport and had heavy IP. They are 5 miles apart. 15 inches NW side of town, 10 SE side of town due to IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any word on the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I have to be honest with people. I studied met. for 2 years in met school before deciding to change majors. I've followed wx/mdoels for 10 years. Do you expect the models to show a full out ragin blizzard every model run? No. All you have to look at 120 hours is the pattern. A lot of things will change. IT all depends how neg tilt the STJ can get and how much phase of the PV occurs. We also have to see where the "50-50" low decides to go.As other mets have stated, its about timing/phasing. This last storm this weekend went much farther NW then progged this far out. It usually goes this way during La Nina winters. Sit back and enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I have to be honest with people. I studied met. for 2 years in met school before deciding to change majors. I've followed wx/mdoels for 10 years. Do you expect the models to show a full out ragin blizzard every model run? No. All you have to look at 120 hours is the pattern. A lot of things will change. IT all depends how neg tilt the STJ can get and how much phase of the PV occurs. We also have to see where the "50-50" low decides to go.As other mets have stated, its about timing/phasing. This last storm this weekend went much farther NW then progged this far out. It usually goes this way during La Nina winters. Sit back and enjoy the ride! Honestly, people do worry too much. It will send you to an early grave lol. You cant change anything-- so might as well enjoy the ride. I prefer being optimistic about this and if it doesnt work out-- so what? On to the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Any word on the Ukie? Bombs to 969. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 For the first event(not main event everyone is focus on) the 00z euro has .10-.25 of frozen for central VA to DC through 84 hrs...with ligh snow reaching up to cnj between hr 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This run is prob going to be alot further east on the euro....not as amplified and very strung out at hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hr 108 broad area of low pressure 1008 off the se coast, looks to be sliding ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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