0z model suite

[Ian]

NAM keeping system 1 suppressed. A little front end thump before changeover? That area near the nc/va border is gold so far this season.

[Huffwx]

Compare to the 12z and you can see the lack of a more pronounce SW flow aloft--- hence more suppressed and less warming.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, the 0z is killer with the NE h5 low..much farther south than 18 or even 12z

[buckeye]

Yeah, the 0z is killer with the NE h5 low..much farther south than 18 or even 12z

yup as soon as i saw that i knew it was gonna buzz saw everything coming towards it. BTW could the 500 72hr 00z nam be any different than the 78hr 18z.....lol

[buckeye]

to both my untrained eyes...the 78 hr nam looks a lot more condusive to a phase

[mitchnick]

Yeah, the 0z is killer with the NE h5 low..much farther south than 18 or even 12z

let's see if maybe a further south solution might delay the system long enough to allow it to cut off further south vs. just moving out to sea

the weenie mind works in mysterious ways

[Dsnowx53]

to both my untrained eyes...the 78 hr nam looks a lot more condusive to a phase

I agree. The pseudo split flow is apparent, and the southern stream energy looks decent. Also nice impulse of energy in the northern Plains.

[Ian]

let's see if maybe a further south solution might delay the system long enough to allow it to cut off further south vs. just moving out to sea

the weenie mind works in mysterious ways

the flow is too fast throughout, it's more likely to get sheared out than amplify in any meaningful way probably. on another note, im not sure what the 84 hr NAM tells me other than it's not worth much.

[Dr No]

Same theory apply here with the PV over ME? Even though we're talking Day 2/3, still the evolution of the vortex over ME/NNE contrasts quite a bit with the GFS.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/1042-nam-phase-shift-westward-too-slow/

[mitchnick]

the flow is too fast throughout, it's more likely to get sheared out than amplify in any meaningful way probably. on another note, im not sure what the 84 hr NAM tells me other than it's not worth much.

I don't know

there's something really different with the shape/trajectory of the trough over the US, like I've never seen since getting on the net in 96'

did you notice that it is currently in the mid 50's in the Canadian Maritime at 9PM while BWI is 23?

http://weather.unisy...c_con_temp.html

that's really wacky

if the shape of that trough holds, I think if we get a storm this weekend, the track is going to be different than any of us are now expecting

exactly what it may be, I certainly don't know that either

[WeatherFox]

Got to wait for the 00Z GFS to see if it still shows a snowstorm days away (for entertainment purposes only at this time period out).

[WinterWxLuvr]

Same theory apply here with the PV over ME? Even though we're talking Day 2/3, still the evolution of the vortex over ME/NNE contrasts quite a bit with the GFS.

http://www.americanw...tward-too-slow/

Interesting observation. Agree that the two models are pretty far apart wrt that vortex. Many of the SREF 21z members show a much different scenario for the weather around here on Thursday than does the NAM. Possibilities, I guess.

[Ian]

I don't know

there's something really different with the shape/trajectory of the trough over the US, like I've never seen since getting on the net in 96'

did you notice that it is currently in the mid 50's in the Canadian Maritime at 9PM while BWI is 23?

http://weather.unisy...c_con_temp.html

that's really wacky

if the shape of that trough holds, I think if we get a storm this weekend, the track is going to be different than any of us are now expecting

exactly what it may be, I certainly don't know that either

well i was talking about the first system, just to be clear. i thought you were saying it might amplify late... i guess it's possible but the 500 low seems pretty constant throughout. im looking for more signs of the block moving west etc which i dont necessarily see in the nam but it is more apparently after that period on other models anyway. it's nina and these things are a pain but i like the overall look re: the weekend. too early to get extremely excited unless you are exciteable i guess.

[stormtracker]

to both my untrained eyes...the 78 hr nam looks a lot more condusive to a phase

Agreed. I checked the 84 panel against the GFS 96 at 18z...looks pretty close

[Guest someguy]

the flow is too fast throughout, it's more likely to get sheared out than amplify in any meaningful way probably. on another note, im not sure what the 84 hr NAM tells me other than it's not worth much.

that could be the case Ian

However in this set up the southern s/w seen over NM is really back that and gone neutral already

Normally that could hurt the chances BUT in this case the flast flow having that s/w there and neutral may give us enough TIME for the northern branch to drop in

In otther words IF say he southern s/w thatis over NM on the 84 hr Nam was say over AL

in this fast flow the phase would occur OFF the coast and this would be BIG western Atlantic Low

ya follow?

[usedtobe]

Yeah, the 0z is killer with the NE h5 low..much farther south than 18 or even 12z

That's the key to the thu system or non-system, I think the latter is more likely. Where that vortex's location will also be important in determining what happens to the dec 19th storm. Looking at the nam, I can't really judge what it will do.

[Ian]

that could be the case Ian

However in this set up the southern s/w seen over NM is really back that and gone neutral already

Normally that could hurt the chances BUT in this case the flast flow having that s/w there and neutral may give us enough TIME for the northern branch to drop in

In otther words IF say he southern s/w thatis over NM on the 84 hr Nam was say over AL

in this fast flow the phase would occur OFF the coast and this would be BIG western Atlantic Low

ya follow?

im confused are we talking about the first (thursdayish) or second (weekend) system? i was just referring to the first one initially.

[Huffwx]

im confused are we talking about the first (thursdayish) or second (weekend) system? i was just referring to the first one initially.

I'm thinking DT is on the second event---

[mitchnick]

I'm thinking DT is on the second event---

Yes, I was referring to the second event, though I didn't make that clear

[Ian]

I'm thinking DT is on the second event---

that's what i thought... a long timer from the region taught me never to punt an opportunity so im still watching the first with half an eye. the second i dunno.. fingers crossed.

[Amped]

NAM= Incoclusive

the 50/50 low and the western us ridge are going to be the main factors here. Heights start out to low over the Carolinas and it goes fishing. The ridge is the west doesn't amplify and or moves to far east, the fish win.

[Huffwx]

that's what i thought... a long timer from the region taught me never to punt an opportunity so im still watching the first with half an eye. the second i dunno.. fingers crossed.

Agree--but, it seems the more suppressed first event leads to a better second event. I've not checked the vorts over NE/Canada as vigorously as some have, so may its chance and really means nothing. I'd love to get 2-3 inches Thursday and 6+ over the weekend.

[Guest someguy]

I'm thinking DT is on the second event---

yes

[Guest someguy]

DT in the chat room

[baroclinic_instability]

Right now the 0Z GFS is looking favorable for that noreaster 96 hrs in with the positioning of the individual waves.

[Dr No]

Perhaps overrunning snows forming Saturday now with what looks like an inverted trof ahead of the main storm.

[PhineasC]

Looks very ominous at 120.

[baroclinic_instability]

DT in the chat room

Who is DT? I am somewhat new here since I never posted at Eastern. It seems he must be some sort of forecasting genius the way he is talked about here.

[earthlight]

Escapes just east, and the shortwave that develops over the Great Lakes and New England at 108-114 hours is the reason. Otherwise a very nice H5 depiction.

[baroclinic_instability]

Take that back. Height field not looking as good aloft. Not much height rises ahead of the wave...no self development and NW track off the coast.