Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 18z NAM and GFS that just came in for this late week system trended much colder aloft at 850 mb for this storm. The problem with this storm, like the models initially showed for the January 21st storm, is that the initial "primary" system appears to be at or a little more north of our longitude, which would pump a warm SW flow and change any possible frozen precipitation over to rain. However, this primary appears to be trending further south and weaker, which if that were to be the case, would mean a higher chance for frozen precipitation for the area, since there would be less and a weaker SW flow. It will be interesting to see the extent of this trend, and if we can cash any frozen precipitation out of this wave of precipitation. 18z NAM @ hour 78 with 6 hour precipitation and 850 mb temperatures. 18z GFS for the wave of precipitation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The surface is torching (mid 40s) so even if it cools further aloft, it would still likely rain. Also no big cold high to the north, airmass is stale and above normal. I suppose at best if things continue to trend colder is a few flakes mixing in or some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 The surface is torching (mid 40s) so even if it cools further aloft, it would still likely rain. Also no big cold high to the north, airmass is stale and above normal. I suppose at best if things continue to trend colder is a few flakes mixing in or some sleet. Let's see how this storm trends. If the primary continues to trend weaker, it will mean less of a SW flow and cooler surface temperatures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The surface is torching (mid 40s) so even if it cools further aloft, it would still likely rain. Also no big cold high to the north, airmass is stale and above normal. I suppose at best if things continue to trend colder is a few flakes mixing in or some sleet. Pretty much agree. The airmass is abysmal for this event, although I could see elevated areas of NW NJ and CT possibly picking up a minor accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Rain. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The airmass is as warm and dull as its been all winter so unless the secondary was to some how bomb out early off the Delmarva, this is a light rain event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Surface temps are way too warm for this closer to the coast. Maybe the Hudson Valley and interior NW NJ/SE NY have a chance, but almost certainly not in NYC and the coast with the SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Let's see how this storm trends. If the primary continues to trend weaker, it will mean less of a SW flow and cooler surface temperatures as well. As is seen with many systems with this type of pattern, it will probably sleet hard for a few hours, even though temps are too warm for any accumulations. Nobody will predict it, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As is seen with many systems with this type of pattern, it will probably sleet hard for a few hours, even though temps are too warm for any accumulations. Nobody will predict it, either. We also had the snow/sleet event on the night of the 16th which exceeded the expectation. The SE winds don't look too good for this outside of interior areas, but if this trend continues, I'd also think that it could sleet briefly closer to NYC even if surface temps are marginal. 925mb temperatures are really marginal, near freezing on the NAM and above on the GFS, so having that at least slightly colder would help the light frozen precip chance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm most like;y going snowboarding this weekend so as long as there is snow up by camelback, which now looks possible with the 18z Suite IDC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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