CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The GFS I think is doing what we thought it might, earlier this morning. It's made a step closer by slowing the nrn stream energy and ejecting the srn stream energy faster. Should be a lot better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I would much rather have the M/A nailed by a major snowstorm and miss us than get nothing at all. It's not like they've been getting a train of KU's like 2009-10. We're in this together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The differences between 12z and 06z are pretty funny. Not enough, but a much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 400-500 mile shift? Just some tweaking can have big results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 As always.. 400-500 mile shift? Just some tweaking can have big results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The differences between 12z and 06z are pretty funny. Not enough, but a much better look. Coming much closer to the Euro, probably way too weak still with all the energy = too fast so the northern stream still manages to sneak ahead of the southern preventing it from making much of a turn. At least there's a storm to track on the east coast but given the pattern this winter it'll take some time before a consolidated, intense low is plausible. Out of phase until too late, disjointed systems have been this winters play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 400-500 mile shift? Just some tweaking can have big results. I'm worried about that ULL sitting in over CO Scott. Wont that prevent this from amplifying and negative tilting? I just don't know about this one.. but that fact that your optimistic makes me happy... What needs to happen on 12z gfs for a major storm hitting NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I would much rather have the M/A nailed by a major snowstorm and miss us than get nothing at all. It's not like they've been getting a train of KU's like 2009-10. We're in this together. Much rather forget 09-10, If there was any year i would have considerd suicide that would have been the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Key is that the GFS perturbs the vortex more this run, so we get our lobes back. But it's to a lesser degree. The kicker out west prevents the western vortex lobe from diving more south than east. So there's no phase there. The Euro phases the s/w over the central Plains (which the GFS barely acknowledges existence) with the southern stream, which is how it came so far north, but it still didn't drop the PV lobe into the trough (really a pipe dream, but let's keep talking about it anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Key is that the GFS perturbs the vortex more this run, so we get our lobes back. But it's to a lesser degree. The kicker out west prevents the western vortex lobe from diving more south than east. So there's no phase there. The Euro phases the s/w over the central Plains (which the GFS barely acknowledges existence) with the southern stream, which is how it came so far north, but it still didn't drop the PV lobe into the trough (really a pipe dream, but let's keep talking about it anyway) You got it, we're not talking about any model with a hit, it's just a matter of how close of a miss as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 meanwhile the 12z GFS just refuses to budge... Here's my thinking: The 12z Euro will completely collapse toward the GFS because despite having superior verification scores over the long haul (years for that matter) the model is willing to take a dink this time if it means not giving the region any snow... Lock it up - Btw, happy f*tine's day... Now go out and be conned into dumping millions of dollars into the gaping maw of commercial greed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Much rather forget 09-10, If there was any year i would have considerd suicide that would have been the one Strongly agree. For whatever reason, I don't have nearly the same feeling this winter. I don't care that much. I miss big snowstorms, but we had an awesome stretch last winter, and an amazing historic event in October. It's nothing like 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm worried about that ULL sitting in over CO Scott. Wont that prevent this from amplifying and negative tilting? I just don't know about this one.. but that fact that your optimistic makes me happy... What needs to happen on 12z gfs for a major storm hitting NE? LOL, this is why I throw flags... If I were optimistic on a hit...I'd tell you. Don't read into my post beyond what I'm saying. I said at least some key players are here which is a good thing, but you need these features to work in harmony. I suppose two things could happen. The srn stream could be the one to deliver if the PV lifts out, but I would not want that solution one bit, as it favors more of a whiff. The other feature is to have a piece of the PV lobe dig south over the Great Lakes and help phase or combine with the srn energy. That would create a more amplified pattern, but it's sort of a thread the needle thing in a way. You need all of these to work on harmony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 meanwhile the 12z GFS just refuses to budge... Here's my thinking: The 12z Euro will completely collapse toward the GFS because despite having superior verification scores over the long haul (years for that matter) the model is willing to take a dink this time if it means not giving the region any snow... Lock it up - Btw, happy f*tine's day... Now go out and be conned into dumping millions of dollars into the gaping maw of commercial greed I went to Kneeland St yesterday, and a nice streetwalker by the name of Jorge is being sent to Ayer as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm really excited that Scott is on board for a major snow storm. I'm not very confident about this forecast, but having Scott calling for big results is huge. Lock this one up everyone. Scott's calling for a big storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm really excited that Scott is on board for a major snow storm. I'm not very confident about this forecast, but having Scott calling for big results is huge. Lock this one up everyone. Scott's calling for a big storm! Well unfortunately, a miss just means colder air and more indoor hack sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm really excited that Scott is on board for a major snow storm. I'm not very confident about this forecast, but having Scott calling for big results is huge. Lock this one up everyone. Scott's calling for a big storm! Green flags being waved violently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I do wish that trough wouldn't plow into CA like that, because even a high plains ridge can be ok to bring something up the coast, but that is acting like a kicker, as Sam alluded to. We'll see what the ensembles and euro do. Canadian looks OTS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I do wish that trough wouldn't plow into CA like that, because even a high plains ridge can be ok to bring something up the coast, but that is acting like a kicker, as Sam alluded to. We'll see what the ensembles and euro do. Canadian looks OTS for now. That may be the culprit that does not allow this to amplify enough to get it ip the coast, Weaken it or slow it down would help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS is out to lunch. Even the usually sheared, surpressed GGEM has an impressive storm, just a bit wide still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That may be the culprit that does not allow this to amplify enough to get it ip the coast, Weaken it or slow it down would help next this shot doesn't really look that promising for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 next this shot doesn't really look that promising for SNE? 4 days early to make that call haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ensembles are extremely flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 gefs is pretty flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 next this shot doesn't really look that promising for SNE? Odds are probably better down there which are not very high at the moment then up here, I just don't think it will make it this far north even if it ends up coming up the coast, I could actually envision a scenario like the 0z Euro, SNE is on the NW edge as i smoke cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL, the ensembles virtually have no wave. Probably a little too flat, but that's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 meanwhile the 12z GFS just refuses to budge... Here's my thinking: The 12z Euro will completely collapse toward the GFS because despite having superior verification scores over the long haul (years for that matter) the model is willing to take a dink this time if it means not giving the region any snow... Lock it up - Btw, happy f*tine's day... Now go out and be conned into dumping millions of dollars into the gaping maw of commercial greed I knew we'd get something from you today. This is a much abbreviated version of Tip's Valenetine's Day massacre. Keep your head up..you have too much to live for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well unfortunately, a miss just means colder air and more indoor hack sack. The ice outside is really hard for frisbee. The snow would at least add some padding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Odds are probably better down there which are not very high at the moment then up here, I just don't think it will make it this far north even if it ends up coming up the coast, I could actually envision a scenario like the 0z Euro, SNE is on the NW edge as i smoke cirrus don't think we get that close i think this is a Southern Mid Atlantic system and i think it will be written off for us in about 36 hours i would be SHOCKED if the euro didn't go south at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think if the EURO follows suit, we can safely put this one to rest. Soon we're going to need to overcome Jeremy Lin like odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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