SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this will most likely evolve into 2/25-26/99 redux That's probably the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this will most likely evolve into 2/25-26/99 redux LOL, don't think a Cape plaster job hasn't crossed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That's probably the most likely scenario. yeah sounds about right. LOL. LOL, don't think a Cape plaster job hasn't crossed my mind. should be an interesting few days. i hate when these things show up 7+ days out because it's just so far out in model la-la land. i know the signal has been there off and on again so there's reason to watch...but by the time you get under 3 days, you feel like you've been watching the "threat" for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 hasn't the Euro showed storms off t he coast in the 5+ day time period this year while the GFS didn't only for the Euro to fold? at least, that's recollection (at least 1x, and I think more) don't get me wrong, I understand the concept that the GFS hasn't caught on, but we're going against this season's trend in place since OCT of 0 for 20 for coastals if it happens, it can only be explained by the MJO, I guess, since this is the first time it's been favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd much rather the GFS verify than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd much rather the GFS verify than the EURO. Watching the MA to CC get walloped, while I was smoking cirrus and seasonal snowfall of 12.1" would be too hard for me to take. It would be that 2003 ALCS feeling all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'd much rather the GFS verify than the EURO. dusting to an inch for you with a foot+ from CC to DC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 dusting to an inch for you with a foot+ from CC to DC??? He had to have thought the Euro was a miss for everyone. If DC got 1-2 feet while he started his mom's bulb plantings for the spring out in the yard..I think he'd be pretty upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He had to have thought the Euro was a miss for everyone. If DC got 1-2 feet while he started his mom's bulb plantings for the spring out in the yard..I think he'd be pretty upset I know the EURO was a ma special....that is why I wouldn't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He had to have thought the Euro was a miss for everyone. If DC got 1-2 feet while he started his mom's bulb plantings for the spring out in the yard..I think he'd be pretty upset no i think the meant he doesn't want to see SNE whiff while folks down in the MA get a good event. that's pretty much what the euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 no i think the meant he doesn't want to see SNE whiff while folks down in the MA get a good event. that's pretty much what the euro showed. Won't happen... /wishcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't see this as a MA special and SNE gets whiffed. It's either all or nothing. I don't think this pattern supports a MA crushing with a SNE whiff. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I agree, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't see this as a MA special and SNE gets whiffed. It's either all or nothing. I don't think this pattern supports a MA crushing with a SNE whiff. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Although the Emperor of the north has arrived. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I agree, Scott. In this pattern....I don't know....that's just a guess, but sort of how I feel. No bias or disrespect meant to any other region. I suppose if it were pretty far to the south, parts of interior NC could have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 In this pattern....I don't know....that's just a guess, but sort of how I feel. No bias or disrespect meant to any other region. I suppose if it were pretty far to the south, parts of interior NC could have snow. I actually thought there was some merit to the 0z GFS solution. Boone FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't see this as a MA special and SNE gets whiffed. It's either all or nothing. I don't think this pattern supports a MA crushing with a SNE whiff. Famous last words. maybe something like 12/19/09 i think Ray liked that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I don't see this as a MA special and SNE gets whiffed. It's either all or nothing. I don't think this pattern supports a MA crushing with a SNE whiff. Famous last words. I could envision a NNE whiff though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I actually thought there was some merit to the 0z GFS solution. Boone FTW. Yeah by MA I'm thinking more DC-PHL, but something like the mtns of NC may be a solution as well..esp if the GFS worked out. Anyways, who knows at this stage. At least some players are there for the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I could envision a NNE whiff though... SNE isn't too far off either..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 maybe something like 12/19/09 i think Ray liked that one. He got an inch less than me in that and hated it, yet I was 25 miles from getting 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 NCEP: "DURING THIS COMING WEEKEND MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN EJECTING NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTING NRN STREAM ENERGY. THIS LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS OF CORRESPONDING SFC DEVELOPMENT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT OVER AREAS FROM THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST NEWD THRU THE ERN CONUS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE NRN STREAM ENERGY... IT MAY WELL TAKE UNTIL WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF ACTUAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SOME CONSENSUS EMERGES REGARDING IMPORTANT DETAILS." Everything they say after this leading paragraph in their overnight Prelim discussion is irrelevent to me... To be announced on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phil, I'll always remember that storm as the one where you sent me text updates while I was at dinner. I was like that guy on the cell phone commercial getting texts on sports updates and the girlfriend was asking him if he was checking his phone...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 SNE isn't too far off either..lol. Yes, lol, There is only so much room for this to come north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 SNE isn't too far off either..lol. it's funny because it essentially is a miss for SNE on every piece of available guidance right now. euro is a bit of scrape job i suppose but it's nothing to write home about. oh, and just so everyone is clear, the euro ens control run.....whiff. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 technically, I think the kicker/progressiveness of the pattern could shove it out to sea. It doesn't have to be 2009-2010 mega-block reincarnated for that to happen. It's probably not super likely, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phil, I'll always remember that storm as the one where you sent me text updates while I was at dinner. I was like that guy on the cell phone commercial getting texts on sports updates and the girlfriend was asking him if he was checking his phone...lol. haha. that event was the friday night ray meltdown when you guys were out. he texted to ask how the ukmet looked - it had gone south by like 100 miles on that particular run - and he lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 haha. that event was the friday night ray meltdown when you guys were out. he texted to ask how the ukmet looked - it had gone south by like 100 miles on that particular run - and he lost it. He sucked down a scorpion bowl in about 5 minutes after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 it's funny because it essentially is a miss for SNE on every piece of available guidance right now. euro is a bit of scrape job i suppose but it's nothing to write home about. oh, and just so everyone is clear, the euro ens control run.....whiff. LOL. Yeah it is. I'm hoping some of the pieces of the puzzle help us out here, because in all honestly, it's the best looking pattern since Halloween I think..lol. At least on the Atlantic side. I know that's not saying much, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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