CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Classic model behavior for big east coast snowstorms... Euro starts south and crushes the mid.atl for many runs in a row..then suddenly starts creeping north with each run..We've seen it a 1000 times...GFS starts OTS..has it for a run or 2..back OTS and finally catches on 2-3 days in advance while th Euro continues to slowly trend north. This has a better chance of giving Ji rain than missing us LOL, could be classic model behavior. 6 days out so anything is on the table, but I still like the overall setup, so fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No blocking = North trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No blocking = North trend You better hope there is a little blocking like the canadian ens were showing a couple days ago, no reason for this to track over logan 11's property or inside runner, the BL is already a mess. Its not coming north on some guidance because of the pac jet crushing the western ridge not allowing heights to lower in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Classic model behavior for big east coast snowstorms... Euro starts south and crushes the mid.atl for many runs in a row..then suddenly starts creeping north with each run..We've seen it a 1000 times...GFS starts OTS..has it for a run or 2..back OTS and finally catches on 2-3 days in advance while th Euro continues to slowly trend north. This has a better chance of giving Ji rain than missing us that theory hasn't worked this year I suspect in the end the model that shows nothing for anyone will be correct highly unlikely the seasonal pattern will change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro will win again and again and again..expect the north trend to continue. I would recommend everyone not even look at the GFS until Friday . Again? Euro has had a bunch of these fantasy storms all winter. Beyond 3 days it's been awful. I would of had over 40 inches if half of them verified. But if course I'm stuck at 16.3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 that theory hasn't worked this year I suspect in the end the model that shows nothing for anyone will be correct highly unlikely the seasonal pattern will change now That's because we've had no coastals...lol. And there is some blocking so north trend is limited. The thing that could kick this OTS is the west coast pattern which is not pretty. The Atlantic side is better, but it's usually not a good thing to have a trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No blocking = North trend Except there is blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 6z GEFS looks pretty blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Seeing the GFS and ensembles have absolutely nothing is still concerning. They better change quick and gives credence to throwing some yellow flags out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 While there are some positives, we don't want the nrn stream flying along too, like in a trypical Nina. Regardless, this is one of the better setups in a while, so it's not a fantasy pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs ensembles are also bad. 2-3 weeks ago all members had a east coast storm for the weekend 4 days out and nothing happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS trend is disgusting. It makes the vortex more progressive, so that all the s/w energy dropping down the back side are falling too far in front of the southern energy. The southern s/w then get trapped underneath the huge ridge that develops between the incoming West coast trough and the vortex ... which eventually torches us too. Given the preference of 2011-12, that's the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 No blocking = North trend Yeah that huge vortex sitting to our north isn't doing anything special </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS trend is disgusting. It makes the vortex more progressive, so that all the s/w energy dropping down the back side are falling too far in front of the southern energy. The southern s/w then get trapped underneath the huge ridge that develops between the incoming West coast trough and the vortex ... which eventually torches us too. Given the preference of 2011-12, that's the most likely solution. I'll wait until later today before judging this any further, but there are some thing against this, as you pointed out. GFS may be too nrn stream happy, but it still could fail even with an adjustment. I'd probably wait until later today to see what the trends are. My guess is that the GFS at 12z probably moves away from the flat look, but still not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 While there are some positives, we don't want the nrn stream flying along too, like in a trypical Nina. Regardless, this is one of the better setups in a while, so it's not a fantasy pipe dream. 0z Euro did not look bad on this as it looked to phase over the lower midatlantic before it moved east off the coast, The GFS is terrible looking, It just keeps everything progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 At 114 hours the Euro and GFS are almost dead nuts on with the handling of the southwest s/w exiting Texas. Across the upper midwest the GFS is notably weaker, and the GFS lacks the western lobe of vorticity diving down through the Lakes. As a result a few hours later the Euro starts to pull everything together, while the GFS crushes everything. GFS is wrong, but to what degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Except there is blocking LOL...no there isn't. The NAO is positive..A vortext to the north doesn't mean blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL...no there isn't. The NAO is positive..A vortext to the north doesn't mean blocking It does have some blocking. The vortex is a result of a weak -NAO. It's not classic 2010 style blocking, but it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It does have some blocking. The vortex is a result of a weak -NAO. It's not classic 2010 style blocking, but it is there. Well maybe you could call it blocking..but it's not really blocking in the true sense..and certainly not enough to preclude a north trend. I'd be shcoked if the Euro isn't north again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well maybe you could call it blocking..but it's not really blocking in the true sense..and certainly not enough to preclude a north trend. I'd be shcoked if the Euro isn't north again today. That vortex is certainly going to limit the extent of how far north this system will travel, whether or not you believe it is a 'block in the true sense.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z GFS vs 6z GFS, the 6z finally got a clue in Canada north of the Dakotas and has the pretty intense s/w that the Euro had, but that the 0z GFS barely noticed. However it does slow down the southwest SW...much slower than the 0z GFS and 0z Euro so everything is still out of whack. As a result the northern canadian system rips ahead of the southern vort. We'll see, if anything the Euro is the one that' susually slow out of the southwest, my guess is the GFS just is playing catchup....toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well maybe you could call it blocking..but it's not really blocking in the true sense..and certainly not enough to preclude a north trend. I'd be shcoked if the Euro isn't north again today. ... it's blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'll wait until later today before judging this any further, but there are some thing against this, as you pointed out. GFS may be too nrn stream happy, but it still could fail even with an adjustment. I'd probably wait until later today to see what the trends are. My guess is that the GFS at 12z probably moves away from the flat look, but still not enough. Scott, I was comparing the 00z GFS and 06z GFS H5 around 126-132 hours. I literally thought NCEP screwed up or my phone had a cache problem since they were so different lol. The thing is that the GFS had about 3-4 runs in a row where it looked the same. For the members that keep saying in here that you need a good +PNA to get a major EC low, go look at the H5 maps for March 2001. San Diego was probably drizzling at 58 degrees during that storm. My concerns: 1. this is the 2011-2012 euro day 6 " fantasy solution". How many times have we seen this?! 2. With all of these shortwaves, its almost a thread the needle type event. 3. This is 2011-2012 4. Not one solution is hitting NE with snow. My optimisms: 1. Even though everything is OTS, but its almost the classic model biases. GGEM amped, euro amped, gfs no storm, ukie OTS, JMA amped. 2. The euro actually shows a major event, better to have that than not. 3. PD has had 2 KUs already (lol) 4. Scott says its a good setup At least we have something to track right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well maybe you could call it blocking..but it's not really blocking in the true sense..and certainly not enough to preclude a north trend. I'd be shcoked if the Euro isn't north again today. I'm not worried about blocking...I'm more concerned about the behavior of the s/w's and how they interact. This is a complicated pattern with all these s/w's and different streams moving at different speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Scott, I was comparing the 00z GFS and 06z GFS H5 around 126-132 hours. I literally thought NCEP screwed up or my phone had a cache problem since they were so different lol. The thing is that the GFS had about 3-4 runs in a row where it looked the same. For the members that keep saying in here that you need a good +PNA to get a major EC low, go look at the H5 maps for March 2001. San Diego was probably drizzling at 58 degrees during that storm. My concerns: 1. this is the 2011-2012 euro day 6 " fantasy solution". How many times have we seen this?! 2. With all of these shortwaves, its almost a thread the needle type event. 3. This is 2011-2012 4. Not one solution is hitting NE with snow. My optimisms: 1. Even though everything is OTS, but its almost the classic model biases. GGEM amped, euro amped, gfs no storm, ukie OTS, JMA amped. 2. The euro actually shows a major event, better to have that than not. 3. PD has had 2 KUs already (lol) 4. Scott says its a good setup At least we have something to track right? how is this the fantasy solution? it barely scrapes SNE. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm not worried about blocking...I'm more concerned about the behavior of the s/w's and how they interact. This is a complicated pattern with all these s/w's and different streams moving at different speeds. Yep. That's why I'm not particularly bullish yet, despite the Euro run. The ENS spag charts are showing highly unusual spread at D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Scott, I was comparing the 00z GFS and 06z GFS H5 around 126-132 hours. I literally thought NCEP screwed up or my phone had a cache problem since they were so different lol. The thing is that the GFS had about 3-4 runs in a row where it looked the same. For the members that keep saying in here that you need a good +PNA to get a major EC low, go look at the H5 maps for March 2001. San Diego was probably drizzling at 58 degrees during that storm. My concerns: 1. this is the 2011-2012 euro day 6 " fantasy solution". How many times have we seen this?! 2. With all of these shortwaves, its almost a thread the needle type event. 3. This is 2011-2012 4. Not one solution is hitting NE with snow. My optimisms: 1. Even though everything is OTS, but its almost the classic model biases. GGEM amped, euro amped, gfs no storm, ukie OTS, JMA amped. 2. The euro actually shows a major event, better to have that than not. 3. PD has had 2 KUs already (lol) 4. Scott says its a good setup At least we have something to track right? March 2001 had a good ridge in the Rockies with the H5 trough along the CA coast. That works, but you don't want a trough actually out west, but it can be just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ... it's blocking By definiton yes..in the true sense no it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 how is this the fantasy solution? it barely scrapes SNE. lol. Maybe the implication that there will be an east coast storm is the fantasy. I don't see that being much in doubt, I just have no idea who it'll effect etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Maybe the implication that there will be an east coast storm is the fantasy. I don't see that being much in doubt, I just have no idea who it'll effect etc. this will most likely evolve into 2/25-26/99 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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