OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol well the GFS ensemble mean is OTS. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The pattern out west screws everyone, there is no issue with the setup over the NATL or over SE Canada but we're going to need that disturbance the models show crashing into the West Coast to be slower or weaker or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol well the GFS ensemble mean is OTS. Ugh. The deep negative anomalies it's showing in the west are laughably bad. At least the agreement on something in the gulf with a good atlantic is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 The pattern out west screws everyone, there is no issue with the setup over the NATL or over SE Canada but we're going to need that disturbance the models show crashing into the West Coast to be slower or weaker or both. Agreed that that's a problem, but we have seen solutions that contend with the kicker. There isn't much variation in the handling of the kicker between runs while there is TONS of variation in the interactions of the shortwaves east of the Rockies. Therefore, the variance in the forecast evolution is attributable to that s/w interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's a long shot.....the situation out west will likely keep things too progressive, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 00z Canadian is very close to something good. It has the two lobe configuration we want. Just too little too late dropping the GL lobe south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is looking a lot more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Out to hr120 on coarse maps, the 00z Euro looks like it's taken a small step in what I would say is a positive direction. It has distinctly split the PV into the two lobes. Southern disturbance is stronger too, along with higher heights along the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 WOW, okay, saw day 6. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Verbatim its a scraper on the Euro...gets pushed east at the last second...but its closer than the 12z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice blizzard for the Mid Atlantic though. I'm sure DT will be barking like mad lol. Nice to see the threat for the east coast. I hope someone comes up big with this storm, even if I don't see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow mid atlantic bomb..vorts must be juiced .... not sure what it will take to turn this thing more up the coast but GFS is waaaay south and EURO north but OTS what do we need more ridging in pac nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Most years you'd feel good about the Euro showing this and no other models having the system that close to the coast but given its performance so far this winter its about as trustworthy right now as the KMA showing a storm at the same range. There are probably more than a few people though in this subforum, the NYC subforum, and the northern half of the Philly one who would much rather not see this storm happen at all than have the 00Z Euro's depiction of the storm come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well I like the Euro because I'll be in VA next Sunday night on my way home from FL. Verbatim its a scraper on the Euro...gets pushed east at the last second...but its closer than the 12z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 If that run were to ever verify, I would proclaim this winter the worst of my life, regardless of whether I live another 70 years. Wouldn't matter because nothing would trump this.....1980, 2010 and 2002 had a shat show threesome and this is the offspring.....would make the 2010 beast of a man in the shed look like a smokeshow in the friendly confines of the Playboy Mansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ensembles are a little weaker looking, but faster and a little closer it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's kind of volatile, because I feel like it could shift around or shift back south, but definitely worth watching. Ton of spread on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Still got to get the other models on board, but the setup is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs diodes debt even have a cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs diodes debt even have a cloud Yeah GFS wants no part of anything for the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah GFS wants no part of anything for the East Coast. The only difference really between the 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS is that the small piece of energy over NE/IA at 102 hours or so does not phase with the southern stream wave on the GFS because the GFS is extraordinarily slow ejecting the system out of TX it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The only difference really between the 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS is that the small piece of energy over NE/IA at 102 hours or so does not phase with the southern stream wave on the GFS because the GFS is extraordinarily slow ejecting the system out of TX it seems. And it's probably a little too fast with the nrn stream too. With all these cooks in the kitchen, models will have a tough time resolving stuff, 6 days out. It is kind of good having the euro op and ensembles on your side, but they have failed at fay 6 too. It's still a pretty good setup overall, so we'll see what guidance does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs diodes debt even have a cloud wow..auto correct ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 wow..auto correct ftl LOL, that's what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Seeing the GFS and ensembles have absolutely nothing is still concerning. They better change quick and gives credence to throwing some yellow flags out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Winter of 2011-12. Keep expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Seeing the GFS and ensembles have absolutely nothing is still concerning. They better change quick and gives credence to throwing some yellow flags out for now. American garbage, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro will win again and again and again..expect the north trend to continue. I would recommend everyone not even look at the GFS until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro will win again and again and again..expect the north trend to continue. I would recommend everyone not even look at the GFS until Friday Like I said...I like seeing it, but the flow is complicated. It was funny to see the euro continue to get more gung ho, and the GFS back off..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Like I said...I like seeing it, but the flow is complicated. It was funny to see the euro continue to get more gung ho, and the GFS back off..lol. Classic model behavior for big east coast snowstorms... Euro starts south and crushes the mid.atl for many runs in a row..then suddenly starts creeping north with each run..We've seen it a 1000 times...GFS starts OTS..has it for a run or 2..back OTS and finally catches on 2-3 days in advance while th Euro continues to slowly trend north. This has a better chance of giving Ji rain than missing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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