dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Could very well be a fringe job up there. Luckily I won't be around. It'd be Snowtober all over again up in ski country Those are my thoughts, I hate seeing storms head off ENE of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It could very well end up being another near miss or a graze job if you take a blend the euro ens and gfs op I just took the HPC approach with a nudge a little further nw of the EC ensembles. I mean for 4 days out, I think that's a good starting point for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 'I hump the GFS" would be more humiliating and therefore of greater comedic value. That would be a good phrase on the back of a speedo to go with the T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS becomes a more reliable model IMO once inside around 108 hours and it becomes even more reliable inside 96, often times inside that time if the Euro shows something else I tend to side more with the GFS, especially if it has the ensemble support. I can only remember maybe 2 or 3 events where the GFS showed something way more west and juiced than the other models at this range and if I recall correctly it was right every time. I hope its wrong this time though, I know most people in this forum though want it to be right. So it's position in the SE at 96 hours is correct, amplitude and position wise. I never understood this argument for any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That would be a good phrase on the back of a speedo to go with the T Hmmm, I thought the back of the speedos would say "GFS's love toy" but whatever Eric decides will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol, Thats the part that i don't like Seems to me to be one of those large envelope systems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seems to me to be one of those large envelope systems though. Yeah, It seems to have a pretty expansive qpf field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. Seeing someone mentioned this a few pages back, Might have been Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Time to start posting in the other thread. Could be a busy night in here with the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, It seems to have a pretty expansive qpf field I remember storms that were at the BM and the death band nailed you, Brian, Dendrite, Pete of similar makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seeing someone mentioned this a few pages back, Might have been Steve I remember when he forst posted it... I laughed it off.oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seeing someone mentioned this a few pages back, Might have been Steve Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember storms that were at the BM and the death band nailed you, Brian, Dendrite, Pete of similar makeup. Yes, It has happend before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember when he forst posted it... I laughed it off.oops Yeah, May not end up being so funny.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dryslot...Your from Lewiston I see..I'm from Augusta...What are ya thinking for Our neck of the woods..If this comes to...not surprised to see a good 1-3' feet around here with massive blowing and drifting and power outages from the wet snow...amazing ....978mb near ack and 971 i believe in the gulf of Maine..this will be lucky if its out of here by late Monday-Tuesday...phenominal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seeing someone mentioned this a few pages back, Might have been Steve yup and he has been roasted since it's a weather board and he was excited and sounded very sophmoric but the laugh may be on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember storms that were at the BM and the death band nailed you, Brian, Dendrite, Pete of similar makeup. Yeah, Looking at cobb data even with the 18z gfs depiction it was 15-20"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dryslot...Your from Lewiston I see..I'm from Augusta...What are ya thinking for Our neck of the woods..If this comes to...not surprised to see a good 1-3' feet around here with massive blowing and drifting and power outages from the wet snow...amazing ....978mb near ack and 971 i believe in the gulf of Maine..this will be lucky if its out of here by late Monday-Tuesday...phenominal! dude really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I remember storms that were at the BM and the death band nailed you, Brian, Dendrite, Pete of similar makeup. Yeah deformation band and mid level frontogenesis are associated with the mid level features. If the H5 trough is broad and begins to close off...it can lead to a more expansive deformation band..ala Feb 2006. Yet, you can have compact bombs like 12/26/10 and 1/12/11 where the H7 goodness is closer to the actual low center. Seeing things like a back bent warm front at 700mb is usually a big clue as to where the best banding will be.You don't necessarily have to see a closed low center...you actually want a kink in the isopleths as that signifies some sort of a front where frontogenesis may occur. That's a mechanism to force the air upwards and cause bands of heavy snow. This happened across the Boston area on 12/26/10. You had the coastal front, but you had very strong frontogenesis from 950-850mb near the canal. That helped force that second QPF max near the city and on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Dryslot...Your from Lewiston I see..I'm from Augusta...What are ya thinking for Our neck of the woods..If this comes to...not surprised to see a good 1-3' feet around here with massive blowing and drifting and power outages from the wet snow...amazing ....978mb near ack and 971 i believe in the gulf of Maine..this will be lucky if its out of here by late Monday-Tuesday...phenominal! :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah deformation band and mid level frontogenesis are associated with the mid level features. If the H5 trough is broad and begins to close off...it can lead to a more expansive deformation band..ala Feb 2006. Yet, you can have compact bombs like 12/26/10 and 1/12/11 where the H7 goodness is closer to the actual low center. Seeing things like a back bent warm front at 700mb is usually a big clue as to where the best banding will be.You don't necessarily have to see a closed low center...you actually want a kink in the isopleths as that signifies some sort of a front where frontogenesis may occur. That's a mechanism to force the air upwards and cause bands of heavy snow. This happened across the Boston area on 12/26/10. You had the coastal front, but you had very strong frontogenesis from 950-850mb near the canal. That helped force that second QPF max near the city and on south. 12/26/10 Ryan's favorite storm ever, uh not, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm only using this as an example, but look at the front on the 700mb prog. It's no coincidence, that strong lift is occurring there. These are the features that people should look at in combo with QPF. QPF might say 8-12" of snow, but in reality, I might think 12-16" in my head...knowing that feature is there. We all know what happened to the Berks and up into NH on 10/29/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm only using this as an example, but look at the front on the 700mb prog. It's no coincidence, that strong lift is occurring there. These are the features that people should look at in combo with QPF. QPF might say 8-12" of snow, but in reality, I might think 12-16" in my head...knowing that feature is there. We all know what happened to the Berks and up into NH on 10/29/11. What site is this map from? UNISYS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What site is this map from? UNISYS? It's wright-weather. You can make similar plots on the Plymouth state page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably will have to lock it up Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just remember, you can get lift from two kinds of ways..although they are related. General isentropic lift (or upglide)...or, force that air up and over a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFs are pretty damn amped! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 nam's off and running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Move on over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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