Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z suite tonight will be close to final outcome as we will be about 48 hours away from "nowcasting" the storm and about 72 hours away from the start of the storm in SNE. Lol, nice you got high standards - I'd say now casting starts 12 hours in advance, or anytime such that an entire cycle of model run can take place before the storm is set to begin - obviously relative location to location in the path of the given event. The reason for this is that we have seen some pretty impresses verification bust as near in as a 36 hour lead model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah...Cantore just said the potential is there, but need to wait for one more model suite to really get a true idea what might take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This year I would wait until flakes are falling... fingers and toes crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cantore just had a program on slugged Storm Watchers out in the Northewest....cool stuff...but i love it when he gets into the models on a New England event like this..He's like Taunton's WSFO Walt Drag if anyone knows him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This year I would wait until flakes are falling... fingers and toes crossed Lol, are you kidding - this year'd I'd wait until the storm has come and passed and your looking at 20" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z suite tonight will be close to final outcome as we will be about 48 hours away from "nowcasting" the storm and about 72 hours away from the start of the storm in SNE. LOL what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS showing those sort of bombs off the NJ and SNE coasts with open 500mb trougs and nothing remotely closed makes no sense to me, either its too strong on the lows or its completely out to lunch, because if anything the models typically play catch up at the surface from 500mb, not the other way around. You sometimes see closed lows and SLPs that seem to weak at 72-96 hours, not open systems at 500 and 978mb lows...well you do, its just usually winds up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Are you in love with me? He is stalking you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS showing those sort of bombs off the NJ and SNE coasts with open 500mb trougs and nothing remotely closed makes no sense to me, either its too strong on the lows or its completely out to lunch, because if anything the models typically play catch up at the surface from 500mb, not the other way around. You sometimes see closed lows and SLPs that seem to weak at 72-96 hours, not open systems at 500 and 978mb lows...well you do, its just usually winds up being wrong. It's possible the GFS is high as a kite for sure. I'm not even sure the 00z runs will clarify much..unless maybe we see big jumps in either direction. I think it's just best to wait and see....it's still not the best looking 500mb pattern across the CONUS, but I don't buy a low going east of CHS either. I hope people keep their feelings in check for now. Too early to really get fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Going to need to see more then just the GFS before i buy into this, Others are trending in the right direction but not to the GFS extent, Right now it would have to be considerd the western outliar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS showing those sort of bombs off the NJ and SNE coasts with open 500mb trougs and nothing remotely closed makes no sense to me, either its too strong on the lows or its completely out to lunch, because if anything the models typically play catch up at the surface from 500mb, not the other way around. You sometimes see closed lows and SLPs that seem to weak at 72-96 hours, not open systems at 500 and 978mb lows...well you do, its just usually winds up being wrong. I dunno, we've seen plenty of storm lows hugging the coast without a closed 5h trough...just look at Vday 2007...the GFS 5h trough is pretty close to being closed off anyhow as it goes south and then east of New England. That doesn't mean I think it will verify but I could probably go back and find many storms that failed to technically close off on the 60dm level at 500mb that still were potent...as long as its neg tilt and a strong vortmax you are usually good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol, are you kidding - this year'd I'd wait until the storm has come and passed and your looking at 20" of powder. Tru datMaybe after the snowblower is put away... What a disaster this year, both snow and models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Going to need to see more then just the GFS before i buy into this, Others are trending in the right direction but not to the GFS extent, Right now it would have to be considerd the western outliar The dead giveway is the fact that it's the furthest west We will see in the details tonight but I think flat/out to sea is out the window. As I said earlier...the Euro can su** it. It's getting it's hat handed to it by the GFS with the handling of the initial stages up in BC and central Canada. WV only continues to hammer that point, as does the RUC as it pertains to the 500mb features. Don't care about the GEFS, control run of the JMA, WTF the FIM says, whether DT has raised a grade 3 ALEET, or anything else. We're going to see a big storm just not sure it gets much beyond the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The dead giveway is the fact that it's the furthest west The GFS becomes a more reliable model IMO once inside around 108 hours and it becomes even more reliable inside 96, often times inside that time if the Euro shows something else I tend to side more with the GFS, especially if it has the ensemble support. I can only remember maybe 2 or 3 events where the GFS showed something way more west and juiced than the other models at this range and if I recall correctly it was right every time. I hope its wrong this time though, I know most people in this forum though want it to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The dead giveway is the fact that it's the furthest west We will see in the details tonight but I think flat/out to sea is out the window. As I said earlier...the Euro can su** it. It's getting it's hat handed to it by the GFS with the handling of the initial stages up in BC and central Canada. WV only continues to hammer that point, as does the RUC as it pertains to the 500mb features. Don't care about the GEFS, control run of the JMA, WTF the FIM says, whether DT has raised a grade 3 ALEET, or anything else. We're going to see a big storm just not sure it gets much beyond the BM. lol, Thats the part that i don't like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 He is stalking you It actually is a little frightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol at Messenger getting his weenie on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The dead giveway is the fact that it's the furthest west We will see in the details tonight but I think flat/out to sea is out the window. As I said earlier...the Euro can su** it. It's getting it's hat handed to it by the GFS with the handling of the initial stages up in BC and central Canada. WV only continues to hammer that point, as does the RUC as it pertains to the 500mb features. Don't care about the GEFS, control run of the JMA, WTF the FIM says, whether DT has raised a grade 3 ALEET, or anything else. We're going to see a big storm just not sure it gets much beyond the BM. A solution like the euro op is probably as likely as the 18z GFS at this stage, imo. Both are outliers, but I think the euro op may be too far se. Of course the euro ensembles are crap for us as well and have the better chance of coming closer to the final result, but I'm specifically talking about the euro op. If I were to guess..and it's a WAG, but something in between the 18z GEFS and 12z EC ensembles would be a starting point imo. It doesn't mean much to this region verbatim, but I think that's a fair guess right now and a starting point. Adjust from there as the time nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS becomes a more reliable model IMO once inside around 108 hours and it becomes even more reliable inside 96, often times inside that time if the Euro shows something else I tend to side more with the GFS, especially if it has the ensemble support. I can only remember maybe 2 or 3 events where the GFS showed something way more west and juiced than the other models at this range and if I recall correctly it was right every time. I hope its wrong this time though, I know most people in this forum though want it to be right. That's a good point as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It actually is a little frightening I would not worry much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's a good point as well. It could very well end up being another near miss or a graze job if you take a blend the euro ens and gfs op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS becomes a more reliable model IMO once inside around 108 hours and it becomes even more reliable inside 96, often times inside that time if the Euro shows something else I tend to side more with the GFS, especially if it has the ensemble support. I can only remember maybe 2 or 3 events where the GFS showed something way more west and juiced than the other models at this range and if I recall correctly it was right every time. I hope its wrong this time though, I know most people in this forum though want it to be right. I'm indifferent, Euro is right I get nothing, GFS right I get rain. I'm thinking the GFS is probably overdone as it's had a tendency to be too far left as of late in most situations. The OP Euro...out to lunch I think. I don't know how/why but the OP run seemed to have some serious issues up top near BC. I guess it's possible it does go as far west as the GFS/UK want it to go, but I have a hard time buying that completely at this stage figuring that the chances they are totally correct at this range are zero, and I have a harder time thinking it's off 100-150 miles too far SE. lol, Thats the part that i don't like Plenty of time for this to cut over BGM. Lol at Messenger getting his weenie on. Piss poor when I'm the most optimistic one. Ginx is out overseeding his lawn, Kev is at home crying looking at pictures of his sculpted snowbanks at this time last year, SnowNH is in a tree outside Kev's living room.....it's just not good. A solution like the euro op is probably as likely as the 18z GFS at this stage, imo. Both are outliers, but I think the euro op may be too far se. Of course the euro ensembles are crap for us as well and have the better chance of coming closer to the final result, but I'm specifically talking about the euro op. If I were to guess..and it's a WAG, but something in between the 18z GEFS and 12z EC ensembles would be a starting point imo. It doesn't mean much to this region verbatim, but I think that's a fair guess right now. I really have no idea either it's just a hunch. I think we do see a bigger, wetter, meaner low, I just don't know if it's going to go full latitude so early which allows it all to get slung up towards the New England area. It's been a long time since that's happened. But I do think the Euro had a big bobble today and just flat out blew the features around BC. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm indifferent, Euro is right I get nothing, GFS right I get rain. I'm thinking the GFS is probably overdone as it's had a tendency to be too far left as of late in most situations. The OP Euro...out to lunch I think. I don't know how/why but the OP run seemed to have some serious issues up top near BC. I guess it's possible it does go as far west as the GFS/UK want it to go, but I have a hard time buying that completely at this stage figuring that the chances they are totally correct at this range are zero, and I have a harder time thinking it's off 100-150 miles too far SE. Plenty of time for this to cut over BGM. Piss poor when I'm the most optimistic one. Ginx is out overseeding his lawn, Kev is at home crying looking at pictures of his sculpted snowbanks at this time last year, SnowNH is in a tree outside Kev's living room.....it's just not good. I really have no idea either it's just a hunch. I think we do see a bigger, wetter, meaner low, I just don't know if it's going to go full latitude so early which allows it all to get slung up towards the New England area. It's been a long time since that's happened. But I do think the Euro had a big bobble today and just flat out blew the features around BC. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's see ... Ryan, Scooter and now Goose have all said we're getting blasted. Snow's up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man this is going to be a paste bomb if this comes true.... model 2m temps are likely way to warm in this situation but this is not a powder storm, lol. H85s just below freezing and SFC temps of 30-32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's see ... Ryan, Scooter and now Goose have all said we're getting blasted. Snow's up! lol, Kev needs you to make him a I luv the GFS t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man this is going to be a paste bomb if this comes true.... model 2m temps are likely way to warm in this situation but this is not a powder storm, lol. H85s just below freezing and SFC temps of 30-32F. Getting it to our lat is more my concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man this is going to be a paste bomb if this comes true.... model 2m temps are likely way to warm in this situation but this is not a powder storm, lol. H85s just below freezing and SFC temps of 30-32F. 24" of stout base refresher to lay the ground work for the powder bombs of late Feb/March works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Getting it to our lat is more my concern Could very well be a fringe job up there. Luckily I won't be around. It'd be Snowtober all over again up in ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol, Kev needs you to make him a I luv the GFS t-shirt 'I hump the GFS" would be more humiliating and therefore of greater comedic value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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