Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 For some odd reason I have this tenacity for timing my posts so they land on the bottom of pages - I think that is why they don't get seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What we wouldn't give for another 31-32 degree plasterjob of 12-18. Man would I be in heaven This would not be it for you though. I don't see a Tip blue bomb for the interior. Might be out this way, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 As scary as it looked at 84 hours...that block in NE Quebec (associated 50/50 low) really pushes the core of the 5h height falls right over the waters to the south of SNE so the ptype issues are really not that big of a deal for most. I checked down to HFD and it looks like nearly all snow there with maybe some brief pings around 102 hours and even BOS is pretty good but could flirt with that 34-35F type BL right along the water...regardless they transition to a blizzard anyway pretty quick later on. Its a good example of how even a little block like that can really do wonder even when the solution looks like it might want to go up the Hudson Valley or over the interior early on in the game. Its not a big block by any means like some we saw last year...but just enough of a nice high anomaly in NE Quebec thanks to the 50/50 low. Yeah it scoots ENE once it gets near ACY. Certainly an important aspect to have with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This would not be it for you though. I don't see a Tip blue bomb for the interior. Might be out this way, however. If it were to happen, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's on my mind, but the idea of a complete whiff is slowly losing steam right now. Boing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What we wouldn't give for another 31-32 degree plasterjob of 12-18. Man would I be in heaven Yup. If I could squeeze 2 KUs out of a dull and horrid winter I would absolutely love that. In fact 2 KUs with nothing inbetween is about my dream IMBY winter... particularly when one of them was a top 3 snowstorm of all time in terms of impact/anomaly for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Depicted that is one tight arss swirl with insane winds surrounding a calm center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If it were to happen, of course. LOL, caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This would not be it for you though. I don't see a Tip blue bomb for the interior. Might be out this way, however. Prob a colder version of Oct but still lean ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Prob a colder version of Oct but still lean ots Even at this stage of the game, I think it would be tough for the GFS to keep coming a ton more west, and have the euro play catch up. One camp will win with a better margin of victory...but both may collapse towards each other. But every once in a while, one camp will completely and utterly fail. I don't know who will win, but I think the euro op is probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is essentially another ensemble member...but since we can see all the maps and soundings, it always gets more attention. The Euro ensembles having quite a decent number of amped up members though does make this a plausible solution, but I'd still def be a lot more worried about an OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You guys arnt buying what the Gfs is selling are you? ESP Kevin who trashes the model daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is essentially another ensemble member...but since we can see all the maps and soundings, it always gets more attention. The Euro ensembles having quite a decent number of amped up members though does make this a plausible solution, but I'd still def be a lot more worried about an OTS solution. Agree with Will here. I think this comes north of the current Euro op, but I'm not buying any of these amped GFS runs either (at least not yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You guys arnt buying what the Gfs is selling are you? ESP Kevin who trashes the model daily No, I hope nobody is buying it. But, the euro op imo is probably too flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Even at this stage of the game, I think it would be tough for the GFS to keep coming a ton more west, and have the euro play catch up. One camp will win with a better margin of victory...but both may collapse towards each other. But every once in a while, one camp will completely and utterly fail. I don't know who will win, but I think the euro op is probably wrong. Shirt off but pants still on and buttoned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You guys arnt buying what the Gfs is selling are you? ESP Kevin who trashes the model daily Are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And just from an anecdotal standpoint, if you get a decent low already developed near New Orleans, it's usually pretty tough to whiff off of SC. There are reasons for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And just from an anecdotal standpoint, if you get a decent low already developed near New Orleans, it's usually pretty tough to whiff off of SC. There are reasons for this. ...unless the phase misses and you're left with strong confluence over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like the ensembles are going to be a hair SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GEFS is NW of the 12z ensemble run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Are you? No...I want euro and Gfs to call a truce and meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GEFS are going to be a little closer than 12z it appears...based on hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh lord frank and beans in hands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GEFS is NW of the 12z ensemble run Probably due to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ...unless the phase misses and you're left with strong confluence over the northeast. Yeah it's not 100% guaranteed, but more often than not..they don't become a flat piece of garbage east of CHS, as long as it isn't some sort of meager low near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Still a decent length se of the BM, but nw of 12z ensembles. Not really a surprise, there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Probably due to the op Probably due to some real amped up memebers being way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z RGEM was going to be a decent improvement too. Oh well, goes to show at 4-5 days nothing can be written in or out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Man, I wish this was 36-48 hrs closer. Lots can happen in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If if if this was to hit looks like Sat nite into Sunday correct ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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