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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat


OKpowdah

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When I was a kid, I remember how awful it felt to be disappointed by a storm that changed to rain, while 30 miles away it was S+. I never want anyone else to feel that way...Dec '92 pretty much scarred me for life. I try to talk about the good and bad in events, it's just lately when you talk about the good...you have to talk about that bad with it. Last year it was just how much and when...this year it's how little and when will this disaster be over..lol. I'm not usually cautious or a downer by nature...I'm usually pretty objective. I will say, I like this setup.

That was pretty much my winter last year.. rain/sleet mby while its S+ in middleboro/Carver. Its just the worst feeling, I can relate! You and CCW deserve a lot of credit for remaining objective and level headed despite the s*** end of the stick u guys sometimes get with regards to storms.. relative to other areas in SNE of course. However its storms like Jan 2005, April 97 and Feb 99 that make it all worth it.

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When I was a kid, I remember how awful it felt to be disappointed by a storm that changed to rain, while 30 miles away it was S+. I never want anyone else to feel that way...Dec '92 pretty much scarred me for life. I try to talk about the good and bad in events, it's just lately when you talk about the good...you have to talk about that bad with it. Last year it was just how much and when...this year it's how little and when will this disaster be over..lol. I'm not usually cautious or a downer by nature...I'm usually pretty objective. I will say, I like this setup.

I have to say...you've done remarkably well for yourself given this early childhood trauma. You should be studied by psychologists and weinerologists.

Glad you're on board for a widespread 12+!

north of the pike

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When I was a kid, I remember how awful it felt to be disappointed by a storm that changed to rain, while 30 miles away it was S+. I never want anyone else to feel that way...Dec '92 pretty much scarred me for life. I try to talk about the good and bad in events, it's just lately when you talk about the good...you have to talk about that bad with it. Last year it was just how much and when...this year it's how little and when will this disaster be over..lol. I'm not usually cautious or a downer by nature...I'm usually pretty objective. I will say, I like this setup.

This year has been gawd awful and full of dissapointment you have to be objective with all these storms, Ther has been so many things that can go wrong on most all of them and just about everyone it has gone wrong, Sooner or later and hopefully sooner we have to get one to go our way and for everyone not just certain areas, We need a good region wide significant snow storm to bring some sense back to this board

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That was pretty much my winter last year.. rain/sleet mby while its S+ in middleboro/Carver. Its just the worst feeling, I can relate! You and CCW deserve a lot of credit for remaining objective and level headed despite the s*** end of the stick u guys sometimes get with regards to storms.. relative to other areas in SNE of course. However its storms like Jan 2005, April 97 and Feb 99 that make it all worth it.

I know you guys down that way had it tough last year, but I had no business getting the snow that I received. Eventually you even out, like this year the same areas getting screwed last year, got their biggest storm in a long time, with 11-12". My biggest storm.....3.9" lol.

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I know you guys down that way had it tough last year, but I had no business getting the snow that I received. Eventually you even out, like this year the same areas getting screwed last year, got their biggest storm in a long time, with 11-12". My biggest storm.....3.9" lol.

Yup and even last year we still ended up above climo. everyone is in the same boat this year.. lets hope the day 6 threat is finally the one to deliver.I still can't see how the cape area will end up with more snow than 2/3 of SNE. somethings gotta give..u would think.

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Lol so basically when I start my VT DOT work again in the fall for the Vermont Institute of Meteorology I can be considered a 'pro forecaster'? If thats how he got it..

You're forgetting the "Special Favors" part of the equation. There's some ceremony they hold every year at the conference. Actually, it's more a ritual than a ceremony. Anyway, good luck!!!

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Hey Sam I thought of you when I was driving along the Turnagain in heavy snow and wind gusts over 70. Just a crazy place.

It's amazing!! Hopefully I'll be able to go back during the winter sometime. Definitely looking forward to the summer though. Planning a lot of hiking and climbing

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At 138 (00z GFS), we got snow flying in NC as the LP comes off the coast of Savannah, GA.

That pesky trough over CO may screw this up for us and not allow the trough (5h) to really dig along the coast and go negative. That HP over the Pacific looks too far west too. Ridging over the MW hurts too.

EDIT: Yup, this thing gets kicked out to sea well south of us. That dang low in the center of the nation dampens out this wave - not to mention some confluence from Friday's low/nonevent.

So Friday's threat is crap on the GFS for most. Now Sunday is another nonevent. Anybody see anything positive out of this run? I don't.

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00z GFS: Now for something completely different

lol. Completely different handling of the energy around the vortex. ...which actually can be connected to the Friday storm being less amplified, so the vortex doesn't get disturbed quite as much by one lobe developing toward Newfoundland. Rather, the vortex can remain more symmetric, so it offers nothing to phase. Now the 00z GFS tries to key in on s/w #5 ...which is a first for it.

We have a long ways to go with this, and not to sound like a weenie, but it's going to play that way anyway, I'd stick with a statistical approach to something this complex, i.e. the ensembles. Hey, they might look like crap at 00z.

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At 138 (00z GFS), we got snow flying in NC as the LP comes off the coast of Savannah, GA.

That pesky trough over CO may screw this up for us and not allow the trough (5h) to really dig along the coast and go negative. That HP over the Pacific looks too far west too. Ridging over the MW hurts too.

EDIT: Yup, this thing gets kicked out to sea well south of us. That dang low in the center of the nation dampens out this wave - not to mention some confluence from Friday's low/nonevent.

So Friday's threat is crap on the GFS for most. Now Sunday is another nonevent. Anybody see anything positive out of this run? I don't.

Nah... we're analyzing a run with 0 continuity over previous mass fields. I bet the Euro and the GFS are about to switch verification ratings. This run can't be believed regardless. Futile.

Folks wanted what the day-time runs hinted to come barreling through, but must be disappointed.

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I take any operational run with a grain of salt for the near future. Simply acknowledge the run by making a mental note of yet another possible outcome, and then move on. Otherwise, let's see what the ensembles do again. They will be much more useful until we start seeing some agreement on general s/w handling, so we can follow more linear nuances rather than try to analyze our way through 500 bifurcations in the evolution of this atmospheric scenario.

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