mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Comparing to the first post of the thread, I've labeled the shortwaves on today's 12z Euro and 12z GFS, valid 15z Saturday (the same as the original in the first post) EURO: GFS: So the main diff is that 5 and 4 are making love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 this is all the HPC you need N ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND... BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RNFL SHOULD BE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PANHANDLE NEWD. FARTHER NWD THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PCPN... AND ALSO PCPN TYPE FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/NRN MID ATLC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN WITH A SRN TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SFC LOW THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME SNOW SAT-SUN DUE TO NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE A SFC LOW TRACK ON THE STG/NRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD WOULD LEAD TO HIGHEST SNOWFALL OVER THIS REGION. Noted that, While everyone has been focusing on whats coming out of the southern stream, There has been a few runs that show the northern piece out ahead moving thru here with some light snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z euro ensembles def better than 00z ensemble mean. North, amped, and better digging. is it a fair statement then that they get measurable qpf further north than 12Z operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 is it a fair statement then that they get measurable qpf further north than 12Z operational? I can't see QPF on the ensembles unfortunately. But definitely much much stronger than 00z ensemble run and a deeper troiugh that's held back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z euro ensembles def better than 00z ensemble mean. North, amped, and better digging. QPF into NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 QPF into NE? he said he can't see QPF Jerry! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 So the main diff is that 5 and 4 are making love? That and 2 and 3 are further west, with more ridging between 2 and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 They definitely are better looking than the op, and rather significantyl so. Still not good enough to get QPF into SNE from what I can tell...but it's better than the op. Still a very large spread even at hr 90, at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So the main diff is that 5 and 4 are making love? I would rather see 6 and 4 getting some side action.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Alright, everyone needs to stop asking about QPF until we're within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 They definitely are better looking than the op, and rather significantyl so. Still not good enough to get QPF into SNE from what I can tell...but it's better than the op. Still a very large spread even at hr 90, at 500mb. Yeah agreed. Better than op and better than 00z ensemble. Nice to see a noticeable trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro Ensemble Mean is ~ 100 mi. north of the OP at 108-114... and 120 is NW by ~ 150. Mean takes the storm on a more SW to NE trajectory vs. the OP which shunts it East (while developing an eyewall on the western edge of the LP) ... this is a positive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Comparing to the first post of the thread, I've labeled the shortwaves on today's 12z Euro and 12z GFS, valid 15z Saturday (the same as the original in the first post) EURO: GFS: awesome post, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 BIG PICTURE: Notice the "stacking" of the s/w's 2 through 6 on the GFS with more ridging between them and 7 and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think it was bashing we were just stating that Tip and geography don't always go hand in hand. I did not see anyone bash NE, i did say our fights that we have are minor compared to yours. Most of us love you guys but get a little pissed when it shows you getting 2 feet of snow and us rain. Kind of the same way some of us felt in 2010 when you were getting blitzed and we were smoking dim sun and cirrus up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me it sounds like the OP is an eastern outlier. Always a flag when the ensemble mean is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think it was bashing we were just stating that Tip and geography don't always go hand in hand. I did not see anyone bash NE, i did say our fights that we have are minor compared to yours. Most of us love you guys but get a little pissed when it shows you getting 2 feet of snow and us rain. Alright - what the hell did I do this time ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Kind of the same way some of us felt in 2010 when you were getting blitzed and we were smoking dim sun and cirrus up here Your avatar says you're 7F? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me it sounds like the OP is an eastern outlier. Always a flag when the ensemble mean is more amped. Yeah agreed. Not sure we can get things as amped as GFS given the synoptic setup but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me it sounds like the OP is an eastern outlier. Always a flag when the ensemble mean is more amped. YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Alright, everyone needs to stop asking about QPF until we're within 48 hours. Yeah, Fook the qpf, Lets just get it up the coast, The qpf will play itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think it was bashing we were just stating that Tip and geography don't always go hand in hand. I did not see anyone bash NE, i did say our fights that we have are minor compared to yours. Most of us love you guys but get a little pissed when it shows you getting 2 feet of snow and us rain. Like in 2009-10? (I know, the exception that proves the rule.) Your avatar says you're 7F? WTF? 7C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 YES Though that didn't work on the threat last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Your avatar says you're 7F? WTF? Its been like that for a couple days, I think there having sensor issues, My wunder one in my sig is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me it sounds like the OP is an eastern outlier. Always a flag when the ensemble mean is more amped. We would need the red one this time instead of yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z NAM is going to be better. Not a GFS hit, but much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nam slower, more amplified with the system coming towards Montana in the am. Better ridging too. Op euro fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The three amigos are in much better alignment. We don't have the grotesquely positive, out of alignment look as the 12z. Getting close to the 12z gfs idea or a contintental sized trough sweeping east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I bet this is a massive hit for I95. The southern vort is juiced. There's going to be more blocking to suppress this than the GFS. I bet MD, NJ, to NYC get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I bet this is a massive hit for I95. The southern vort is juiced. There's going to be more blocking to suppress this than the GFS. I bet MD, NJ, to NYC get slammed You mean DCA to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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