40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No because I don;t think it's much of a threat until the Euro has it. I wouldn't even have known the GFS had a storm except for the board lol Lie. Thinking it's likely and wanting the hell out of it are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll bet most of the I 95 corridor gets crushed, or hardly any of it. we'll know sooner than people think. The GFS/UK differ from the GGEM/EURO at 0z tonight and 12z Thursday. This won't take long to see which model smoked the crack pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not it isn't. Light qpf in far SE VA. That's it. I see 0.50"+ down that way ... which for them is epic (if snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 we'll know sooner than people think. The GFS/UK differ from the GGEM/EURO at 0z tonight and 12z Thursday. This won't take long to see which model smoked the crack pipe. Only in this winter would the UK look good and the EURO would not follow suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not it isn't. Light qpf in far SE VA. That's it. SE VA gets it pretty good, jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dude, you are making this out to be waaay bigger than it is. There's no conspiracy. There are about 47 billion s/w's interacting with each other so subtle shifts in the treatment of any one will have larger ramifications down the road. The differences between the Euro and the GFS are clear. So now we just need to determine which one is correct. The GFS currently lacks support. That's the primary determining factor at this time IMO. UK is closer to the GFS than the Euro, though. So there appears to be a UK/GFS camp and a GGEM/Euro camp for global models. What will be interesting is the 12z Euro ensembles. If they start to sniff out a more exciting solution that will be something to take note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Probably worth noting the feature the Euro doesn't show at 12z Thursday coming down a few hundred miles north of the ND border is very evident both on the water vapor and the RUC. To me that's one of the most critical issues as a difference between the two models, Euro/GGEM just seem to not have it at all, and it certainly appears like it's a legitimate feature. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UK is closer to the GFS than the Euro, though. So there appears to be a UK/GFS camp and a GGEM/Euro camp for global models. What will be interesting is the 12z Euro ensembles. If they start to sniff out a more exciting solution that will be something to take note of. What did 00z Euro ens have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here's the 24 hour Euro contour vs the GFs white lines. You can see what may well be a Euro error north of ND. That has ramifications that magnifiy going forward. The feature does appear to be legit, pretty much where the 12z 6h GFS placed it...RUC is similar and would have a solution very much like the GFS come later tonight. Euro pretty much ignores that feature entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 These models are probably giving alot of people blue balls Probably worth noting the feature the Euro doesn't show at 12z Thursday coming down a few hundred miles north of the ND border is very evident both on the water vapor and the RUC. To me that's one of the most critical issues as a difference between the two models, Euro/GGEM just seem to not have it at all, and it certainly appears like it's a legitimate feature. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 None of this sets well with me... Hearing NCEP prate on about initialization errors, now the Euro has 0 stream interaction... For all I know ...the UKMET office purchases their initialization from NCEP - go wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SE VA gets it pretty good, jerry. Not on my maps using SV. I would believe those over wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 None of this sets well with me... Hearing NCEP prate on about initialization errors, now the Euro has 0 stream interaction... For all I know ...the UKMET office purchases their initialization from NCEP - go wonder. How do Valenetines Day, whitman's samplers, and pompadours sit with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How do Valenetines Day, whitman's samplers, and pompadours sit with you? Whitman's samplers FTW - and a heart-shaped box, to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 These models are probably giving alot of people blue balls Either NCEP scored a coup with the injection of PAC data or not. I think that feature is real, being modeled poorly by the Euro/GGEM. Does it make a huge difference? Maybe not, but it's interesting. Be pretty unusual to see a fairly dramatic error at 12 and 24 hours on any model. I'm curious to see the more detailed 500mb Euro charts later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How do Valenetines Day, whitman's samplers, and pompadours sit with you? LOL What are you doing down there?? cmon out of the basement and eat your dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here's the 24 hour Euro contour vs the GFs white lines. You can see what may well be a Euro error north of ND. That has ramifications that magnifiy going forward. The feature does appear to be legit, pretty much where the 12z 6h GFS placed it...RUC is similar and would have a solution very much like the GFS come later tonight. Euro pretty much ignores that feature entirely. Go to wunderground and toggle the 500mb maps at 24hrs between the Euro and GFS. You'll see that there is a vort there on both, and it may just be a matter of the contour spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL What are you doing down there?? cmon out of the basement and eat your dinner. LOL..that monster from Goonies chained up in the basement..eating Baby Ruth's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro thru 108 is a complete whifferino for NE. Keeps decent QPF out of the Mid Atlantic, too. Northern stream wave is almost non-existent and steering flow aloft too zonal for this baby to turn the corner. Also, as mentioned by others, LP out west is also not helping matters. Not to be a storm rabble rouser but ... The ECMWF has a tendency to dig waves too far SW over western N/A, and in doing so, tends to be slower at kicking those features out. *IF* *IF* *IF* that bias is taking place here, that could explain - in part - why there is less stream interaction (phasing) in this solution. The reason being ..for those less in the know ... part of the reason why these GFS (now UKMET) solutions depict more phasing is because they have more timely ejection out of the SW of the mid and U/A feature. As it gets kicked east and enters the geopotential medium nearing the lower Plains, it induces the northern stream down in latitude because by lowering heights south the entire medium is weakened. From what I can see the northern stream in this Euro run does contain impulse(s) material that would in any other circumstance be similar, but those merely don't descend in latitude. Again, it appears to me to be subtle timing issues over when the SW feature gets the boot into the downstream - which is right. Heck if I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So someone verify for me: My SV maps have RIC dry or very light. VA Beach gets maybe 0.5. Apparently someone else has more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not on my maps using SV. I would believe those over wunderground. I have SV too lol looks like they get the outer bands the deformation band. They don't get a MECS but its an appreciable .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So someone verify for me: My SV maps have RIC dry or very light. VA Beach gets maybe 0.5. Apparently someone else has more? To me, Va Beach gets maybe 0.20-.25"? RIC is dry. A second wave comes at h108 and gets them again with more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Go to wunderground and toggle the 500mb maps at 24hrs between the Euro and GFS. You'll see that there is a vort there on both, and it may just be a matter of the contour spacing. Thanks, looking it appears the Euro is considerably faster with the additional energy coming onshore in BC by morning. So in addition the Euro has less ridging between that feature and the one we're talking about...GFS closing off the contours and is also stronger beyond 30 or so hours. The Euro just kind of keeps an elongated less impressive system skirting along the northern states. Euro is fastest with the energy into BC, NAM in the middle, than the GFS the slowest w the UK. Won't be hard to see which camp is wrong if we don't already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 To me, Va Beach gets maybe 0.20-.25"? RIC is dry. A second wave comes at h108 and gets them again with more qpf. I was looking at accumulated qpf. Either way, it's a dead ratter for just about everyone considering bl temperature issues on the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was looking at accumulated qpf. Either way, it's a dead ratter for just about everyone considering bl temperature issues on the Euro verbatim. Yeah its 40-45F and rain in SE VA so snow is non existent on the run with that s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not to be a storm rabble rouser but ... The ECMWF has a tendency to dig waves too far SW over western N/A, and in doing so, tends to be slower at kicking those features out. *IF* *IF* *IF* that bias is taking place here, that could explain - in part - why there is less stream interaction (phasing) in this solution. The reason being ..for those less in the know ... part of the reason why these GFS (now UKMET) solutions depict more phasing is because they have more timely ejection out of the SW of the mid and U/A feature. As it gets kicked east and enters the geopotential medium nearing the lower Plains, it induces the northern stream down in latitude because by lowering heights south the entire medium is weakened. From what I can see the northern stream in this Euro run does contain impulse(s) material that would in any other circumstance be similar, but those merely don't descend in latitude. Again, it appears to me to be subtle timing issues over when the SW feature gets the boot into the downstream - which is right. Heck if I know. actually ...while this could all certainly be true, upon closer look - no. this is just a mess people. The GFS is actually stronger with the southern stream overall than the ECM, which is odd that these two models flipped that script - their biases are usually the other way around with the southern stream. From SW Canada to Ontario I don't see very much similarity in the handling of ANY features for that matter. At this point, I think it is more alarming that both the UKMET and GFS came together than it is the Euro is off - kind of a maverick compared. The Euro flubbed a couple of systems in as near as 48 hours earlier when that other pattern - sure, new pattern now but eh... Point being, the model is not that infallable. The other problem is the fact that it is not supposed to (apparently ) snow this year at least excuse. If it does, you almost get the feeling that great crime in nature has taken place and that the world must be ending NCEP said yesterday that they believe this would probably be a short range resolution requirement and I don't think that has changed. The flow is fuzzy logical right now with all these perturbances rolling around. We got bad intializations on top of it ? whatever - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 RUC appears to be much faster with the energy in BC later tonight vs the GFS. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why are we using the RUC for a storm 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 RUC appears to be much faster with the energy in BC later tonight vs the GFS. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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