OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's tough to see on the PSU maps what the EURO is doing but it looks about 24 hours slower than the GFS with a spoke of energy diving down. I have a really hard time believing the EURO is wrong substantially at 24 hours. As a result there's nothing to really pull it all together, and that super duper GFS solution ain't going to happen I don't think on the Euro. 24 hours? Yeah, I'm gonna guess you're reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not going to get it done this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Once euro locks in...it's almost impossible to nudge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's not a surprise. A little faster here, a little slower there and it's night and day. I wouldn't expect any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well 0z will be telling. If the GFS stays with this amped idea, I will get more invested. The Euro has been steady with keeping this thing well south of the region. I'm torn. I want SNE buried at least once this season, but this storm conveniently begins right when I am supposed to take off for Ft. Myers. My flight is at 1120z 19 Feb, so unless this begins later, I cannot root for it, which sucks because I love tracking these things. Just my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 pretty close to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is hilarious.hows it look here dot rat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is hilarious. Something is really f'd up at init. Either NCEP's Pac data didn't get into the Euro, or it seriously contaminated the GFS/UK Same features across the north, just off 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 A hair west at 12z then 0z but pretty similar results, Does get some snow to DC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 hows it look here dot rat? It's more amped up with the srn energy, so it does creep north at hr 108, but whiff for even you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ray is going to be devastated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's actually improved with the srn stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe a sprinkle or flurry for RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 were going to have to see what the gfs does tonight to know if it is ots or not because if it is euro will have the right idea if not then i would expect the euro to move closer to the gfs just more waiting i guess Something is really f'd up at init. Either NCEP's Pac data didn't get into the Euro, or it seriously contaminated the GFS/UK Same features across the north, just off 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Something is really f'd up at init. Either NCEP's Pac data didn't get into the Euro, or it seriously contaminated the GFS/UK Same features across the north, just off 24 hours. Dude, you are making this out to be waaay bigger than it is. There's no conspiracy. There are about 47 billion s/w's interacting with each other so subtle shifts in the treatment of any one will have larger ramifications down the road. The differences between the Euro and the GFS are clear. So now we just need to determine which one is correct. The GFS currently lacks support. That's the primary determining factor at this time IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NCEP discounted the UK and GFS prior to the 12z EURO.... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF...WHILE THE UKMET IS SLOW AND AMPLIFIED...WITH ITS GREATER AMPLIFICATION POSSIBLY AN INDICATION OF ITS STRONG BIAS AT LATER TIME FRAMES. THUS...THE UKMET IS DISCOUNTED. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...WHILE PLAUSIBLE...IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS NARROWER DATA ASSIMILATION WINDOW AND ULTIMATELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's more amped up with the srn energy, so it does creep north at hr 108, but whiff for even you. Absolutely fine with it.. GFS north and on crack.. its mean is between GFS and EURO.. a blend of the models is possibly an MECS here.. riding that. If I was NWS I'd raise pops advertise rain/snow mix and low confidence of precip type DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro thru 108 is a complete whifferino for NE. Keeps decent QPF out of the Mid Atlantic, too. Northern stream wave is almost non-existent and steering flow aloft too zonal for this baby to turn the corner. Also, as mentioned by others, LP out west is also not helping matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ray is going to be devastated But you're not lol I know it's still unlikely....threat just has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe a sprinkle or flurry for RIC? ALERT......ALERT.......ALERT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's not always as simple as a compromise, Jay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro thru 108 is a complete whifferino for NE. Keeps decent QPF out of the Mid Atlantic, too. Northern stream wave is almost non-existent and steering flow aloft too zonal for this baby to turn the corner. Also, as mentioned by others, LP out west is also not helping matters. Let me correct that... Euro is actually a decent storm for DTland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Let's buy American here. (I just bought a new car last night though...Japanese.... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'll bet most of the I 95 corridor gets crushed, or hardly any of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 But you're not lol I know it's still unlikely....threat just has legs. No because I don;t think it's much of a threat until the Euro has it. I wouldn't even have known the GFS had a storm except for the board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Let's buy American here. (I just bought a new car last night though...Japanese.... ) Was it the Toyota Prius or Toyota JMA model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's not always as simple as a compromise, Jay. YES! Nifty little word I enjoy: Bifurcation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Let me correct that... Euro is actually a decent storm for DTland... Not it isn't. Light qpf in far SE VA. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dude, you are making this out to be waaay bigger than it is. There's no conspiracy. There are about 47 billion s/w's interacting with each other so subtle shifts in the treatment of any one will have larger ramifications down the road. The differences between the Euro and the GFS are clear. So now we just need to determine which one is correct. The GFS currently lacks support. That's the primary determining factor at this time IMO. I think by 12z tomorrow the models will have a better handle on this. Until then, the spread will be phenomenal. Too many s/w running around. But, with that said, it's clear that the Euro is favored right now by NCEP, and it makes sense. The Euro has been fairly consistent run to run compared to the GFS. Still a long ways to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Was it the Toyota Prius or Toyota JMA model? Nope. CRV. Traded up my 2009 for a 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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