CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We are seeing more and more amped up GEFS members which is good news. The vast majority has at least a scraper with some big snowstorms. 12z UKMet looks pretty similar in terms of track to the op GFS though maybe a smidge east with the UK being west of the majority of GEFS members. That's huge. I'm actually getting a bit amped up about this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Jeremy R on Ch 7 not buying the phasing yet, Bouchard wasnt buying it last night either, would like to see them both wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Indiv 12z GFS ensm members are out. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Some monster hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You know it's weird. Looking at the 500mb heights on the ensembles, it does make you wonder how a big storm is possible. I know it's happened before, but even the ridge out west is kind of blah looking..although sufficient for something. Eh, crazier things have happened I guess. This is what has kept me on the conservative side. Crazier things have happened, but this is not a typical H5 pattern for a coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 As Scooter mentioned the synoptic setup is sort of ugly. Timing of any phasing will have to be near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We are seeing more and more amped up GEFS members which is good news. The vast majority has at least a scraper with some big snowstorms. 12z UKMet looks pretty similar in terms of track to the op GFS though maybe a smidge east with the UK being west of the majority of GEFS members. That's huge. I'm actually getting a bit amped up about this potential. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Any moment weenies will unite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is what has kept me on the conservative side. Crazier things have happened, but this is not a typical H5 pattern for a coastal low. Yeah I know it. I mean, I'm not expecting a KU type 500mb look, but a lot of things have to come together. However, it seems like more and more evidence is hedging to something more interesting for the East Coast. It's starting to grab my interest somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 We are seeing more and more amped up GEFS members which is good news. The vast majority has at least a scraper with some big snowstorms. 12z UKMet looks pretty similar in terms of track to the op GFS though maybe a smidge east with the UK being west of the majority of GEFS members. That's huge. I'm actually getting a bit amped up about this potential. Now that Ryan is calling for a crippling blizzard along with Scooter I think we can all start preparing for a monster. Schweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro rolling out if it shows something i may be back in winter mode.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 euro/gfs spot on through 24 aside of the ripple in the flow north of the dakotas...kind of a big aside though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Jeremy R on Ch 7 not buying the phasing yet, Bouchard wasnt buying it last night either, would like to see them both wrong. They'll be sining a different tune tonight, particularly if the ECM follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think this bears hoisting for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Now that Ryan is calling for a crippling blizzard along with Scooter I think we can all start preparing for a monster. Schweet. lol - And so it begins. High expectations and words taken out of context. Please get this winter of hope and drama over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 absent that feature in the north - and it's tough to tell at 24 if it's just delayed or off the grid on the site I'm on...will have a hard time pulling together like the GFS. We'll see by 48..it may just be off the top of the map I have by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think the euro will look anything like the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looking a bit closer I don't think the synoptic setup is too bad for a big storm... the issue is going to be an absolute disaster of shortwaves all over the place that are going to be difficult to resolve. I expect another day of relatively poor model performance until we start to sort this stuff out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think this bears hoisting for now You're old enough to stop pissing the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think the euro will look anything like the GFS right now. lol agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm still stuck at 24, you guys are all out to 60+. At 24 on the PSU site you can see it does not have the ripple north of ND in CA. Absent that, it has to be substantially different. GGEM doesn't really have that feature either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm still only out 24 hours. Closer to the GFS than the 00z run ... I think. But there are enough nuanced differences from the GFS that I'm not sure we're getting our storm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is a phail AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Whatever happens this thing is going to be loaded with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol agreed. It's going to be at least another 24 hrs before models probably have an idea with all these s/w's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is slightly west with the low over the panhandle then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ALEET ALEET ******** EURO LOOKS NOTHING LIKE GFS ALEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's going to be at least another 24 hrs before models probably have an idea with all these s/w's. Yeah exactly. We still have some amped up op runs and ensemble members so that's good. Euro is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's tough to see on the PSU maps what the EURO is doing but it looks about 24 hours slower than the GFS with a spoke of energy diving down. I have a really hard time believing the EURO is wrong substantially at 24 hours. As a result there's nothing to really pull it all together, and that super duper GFS solution ain't going to happen I don't think on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 In the winter of Phail's...this should come as no surprise. You toss it good times and bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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