CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 we'll see how things evolve but the actual ens mean might not be all that helpful in a situation where it's amped vs flat. of course, reality could end up in between giving you something akin to the actual mean, but sometimes one camp is just flat out right while the other is just basically wrong. I thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Can someone do some qpf outputs for SNE and Maine?? numbers...? Not that it matters much this far out but .90" GYX, .79" AUG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Clearly they hadn't viewed the UK which now agrees with the GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE Also, I found it odd that the latest Pac data made it into this GFS run, and yet, there appear to be init errors contributing to the amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Also, I found it odd that the latest Pac data made it into this GFS run, and yet, there appear to be init errors contributing to the amped solution. If the Euro comes around to teh same type solution NCEP will change their tune entirely on the next update at 2pm ish. They do this frequently when they perceive the GFS is on an unsupported tangent. If it were the Euro on the tangent...different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I liked HPC's famous "bad data shortwave" explanation for the 12/26/10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Clearly they hadn't viewed the UK which now agrees with the GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE I was going to post this, but I believe this was before the 12z runs, gfs ingested pac recon, and the 12ukmet seemed to at least slightly bucked that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks Dryslot.....Yeah If this all comes about,I am sure the numbers will be higher with a 971mb low in the gulf of maine....just saying...would be great to see this happen..but thanks for the numbers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 they using some boxing day initialization errors again? imagine if the gfs models it of and on for 6 more runs and the euro doesn't lock on to fri and they keep throwing up "initialization errors" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was going to post this, but I believe this was before the 12z runs, gfs ingested pac recon, and the 12ukmet seemed to at least slightly bucked that trend. 12z GFS/NAM are referenced right at the top - they're part of the discussion. The 12z UK and the rest are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z GFS/NAM are referenced right at the top - they're part of the discussion. The 12z UK and the rest are not. Thanks, good to see the ukmet go the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Do folks think this has a better chance of raining or OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I liked HPC's famous "bad data shortwave" explanation for the 12/26/10 storm. Everytime it seems when the NE gets rocked by a big storm its Ini errors, bad data, etc,etc from ncep........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks, good to see the ukmet go the other way. It's even more clear they haven't viewed the 12z UK when they reference the 0z UK as supporting the EC when they discount both the GFS/NAM at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12Z UKMET looks like a pretty nice snowstorm. Now how does it do it from 96 to 120? GFS had it similarly and moved the low up to near ACK and then shot it almost due East. Does the UKMET do that? In any case, it's clear to me that the models today for 12Z are sniffing it. If all but CMC are a hit, what is DT going to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I was going to post this, but I believe this was before the 12z runs, gfs ingested pac recon, and the 12ukmet seemed to at least slightly bucked that trend. I dont know. . The preface the discussion with this, indicating the eval includes the 12z gfs run: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1137 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012 VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW, here is an easy way to look at the last 4 GFS runs: http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/pruncomp.php?type=GFS-US-0-prec-108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 DT starting damage control. Slowly working the storm north GOOD SIZE SNOWSTORM LOOKING MORE and MORE LIKELY NORTHERN VA ... NW VA Northern half of SHENANDOAH VALLEY MD DE S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You know it's weird. Looking at the 500mb heights on the ensembles, it does make you wonder how a big storm is possible. I know it's happened before, but even the ridge out west is kind of blah looking..although sufficient for something. Eh, crazier things have happened I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12Z UKMET looks like a pretty nice snowstorm. Now how does it do it from 96 to 120? GFS had it similarly and moved the low up to near ACK and then shot it almost due East. Does the UKMET do that? In any case, it's clear to me that the models today for 12Z are sniffing it. If all but CMC are a hit, what is DT going to say? ALERT....ALERT.. IGNORE ALL MODELS THAT SHOW SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST... THIS IS NOT A JOKE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks Dryslot.....Yeah If this all comes about,I am sure the numbers will be higher with a 971mb low in the gulf of maine....just saying...would be great to see this happen..but thanks for the numbers.. No prob, Hopefully it works out, We need it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why do people put significance on the GEFS mean? Is it the trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well if nothing else, maybe Ginx gets his wish of sandbagging later next week..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why do people put significance on the GEFS mean? Is it the trending? Not so much trending as it is corroboration. By subjecting the model to slight perturbations, you come up with an idea of how variable the solutions might be, one of which is the Op.. The more agreement among the gefs members, the greater the likelihood the Op model isnt on crack, so to speak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You know it's weird. Looking at the 500mb heights on the ensembles, it does make you wonder how a big storm is possible. I know it's happened before, but even the ridge out west is kind of blah looking..although sufficient for something. Eh, crazier things have happened I guess. I think it's more just good timing for a decent sized storm. Until the Euro works NW and we see the models stay NW for a full 2 runs, I have a hard time thinking it's going to be that extreme. A storm through the BM sure....to ACK? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nope, February sun angle and you said to move on. Yeah big worries about sun angle this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Time for some March 2001 mojo to herald the EURO and swipe another one from the MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Indiv 12z GFS ensm members are out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Also, I found it odd that the latest Pac data made it into this GFS run, and yet, there appear to be init errors contributing to the amped solution. I think they did this with either the Boxing Day storm last year, or one like it...where they discounted a threat only to have it pan out... Still, I wonder if the UKMET office purchases initialization data from NCEP ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think they did this with either the Boxing Day storm last year, or one like it...where they discounted a threat only to have it pan out... Still, I wonder if the UKMET office purchases initialization data from NCEP ? Well, everyone including Jesus himself had balied on the Boxing day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well, everyone including Jesus himself had balied on the Boxing day storm. Just be prepared to have any outie, become an innie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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