ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ignoring the D6 and D7 BEASTS on the Euro, the GFS scored first with the Boxing Day blizzard inside 60 hours 18z NAM 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Tip, has your friend at ecmwf sent you the control run yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No point chest thumping just yet. We've been down this road before. I'm not getting suckered in. If no other model is interested, neither should we be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well looks like that GFS run basically jackpotted Pete. With just under 2'...lol Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z NAM 66hrs. 12z GFS was first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 No point chest thumping just yet. We've been down this road before. I'm not getting suckered in. If no other model is interested, neither should we be. I don't think we have... 2 consecutive (not off-hour) runs of the GFS showing a major snowstorm if not blizzard for SNE... never before in Winter 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UK isn't going to be that far off from the GFS through the 72/96 hour period. Low is in about the same spot, 1005mb off the LA/TX coast at 72 hours. Aloft the GFS is definitely a bit better, UK isn't going to run it as far north I don't believe, but it's going to be a half a continent closer than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UK isn't going to be that far off from the GFS through the 72/96 hour period. Low is in about the same spot, 1005mb off the LA/TX coast at 72 hours. Aloft the GFS is definitely a bit better, UK isn't going to run it as far north I don't believe, but it's going to be a half a continent closer than the GGEM. yeah jconsor posted the maps a few posts earlier...it bombs after it moves off the va capes but tough to tell where exactly it goes given the 24 hr charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UKMET looks much more amplified than from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yeah jconsor posted the maps a few posts earlier...it bombs after it moves off the va capes but tough to tell where exactly it goes given the 24 hr charts I'm on the PSU site...but long story short through even 48 it's clear it's picking up on the features the GFS was as well. Euro will follow suit I suspect, and it's game on. we'll end up getting rain, but that's fine too, we need the moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't think we have... 2 consecutive (not off-hour) runs of the GFS showing a major snowstorm if not blizzard for SNE... never before in Winter 2011-12. Well if you want to split hairs sure but what's the point of getting all giddy about one model showing a blizzard. This threat needs more model support. Just MHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 UK looks better. Deff closer to the GFS than GGEM (AMOUT). Still probably not as would up as the gfs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12/26/2011 No..The Euro had that and then lost it..the GFS caught it first the 2nd go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the posts on wxrisks facebook are killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm on the PSU site...but long story short through even 48 it's clear it's picking up on the features the GFS was as well. Euro will follow suit I suspect, and it's game on. we'll end up getting rain, but that's fine too, we need the moisture If the ukie came around, The euro should as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs ens mean is more juiced than the 06z run was...my guess is there a handful of members closer to the op and still some whiffs in there based on mean SLP center passing pretty far south of the BM but some good precip over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ensembles look like about 50NM or so se of the BM. Edit: probably 100NM or so. Either way, it's more amped up than 06z, but a scraper. I would expect that, even if this were a lock to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z GEFS looks to be a scraper for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It'd be pretty unusual for the UK and GFS to be off on this type of tangent. I'm guessing the GGEM just had a hard time picking out the initial features. RGEM is considerably stronger with the followon s/w coming down into the plains later...and probably is better defined in the upper texas region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Can someone do some qpf outputs for SNE and Maine?? numbers...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 gfs ens mean is more juiced than the 06z run was...my guess is there a handful of members closer to the op and still some whiffs in there based on mean SLP center passing pretty far south of the BM but some good precip over SNE Ensembles look like about 50NM or so se of the BM. 12z GEFS looks to be a scraper for SNE Expected at this time frame, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Can someone do some qpf outputs for SNE and Maine?? numbers...? like 1.5-2.0" SNE Over 1" maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If the ukie came around, The euro should as well Probably to some extent. The RGEM is better than the GGEM, but is still not seeing one of the systems involved. Would be pretty unusual for it to be totally missing it unless it's tracing back to a point where it's prone to init errors...high mountains or just off the coast. Too lazy too look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If the Euro even gets some snow into SNE..then I think we can begin to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Thanks...much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If the Euro even gets some snow into SNE..then I think we can begin to believe Nope, February sun angle and you said to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 we'll see how things evolve but the actual ens mean might not be all that helpful in a situation where it's amped vs flat. of course, reality could end up in between giving you something akin to the actual mean, but sometimes one camp is just flat out right while the other is just basically wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If the Euro even gets some snow into SNE..then I think we can begin to believe Actually agree. it would have to be fairly close to the UK atleast for me to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Clearly they hadn't viewed the UK which now agrees with the GFS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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