ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That is quite a bit of precip. And ChrisM was that a picture of Richboy? Yes. That's actually Typhoon Tip. Looks just like him. But it does look exactly like Tip lol. Even right down to the hair. And I am most interested in these ensemble members and the Euro run today. Should be interesting one way or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well that was interesting, but lets see what the rest of the guidance does. Like I said earlier...having an op run or two show a hit while ensembles or maybe another op run disagree will still have us wondering. Not sure what the 12z's looks like but of the 12 members posted at PSU E-wall's site, 3 of the 00z GEF members did have a juggernaut event. When I saw that a few moments ago, I did raise a brow some. hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes. And I am most interested in these ensemble members and the Euro run today. Should be interesting one way or another GEFS have been awful. The Euro should have a clue by 12z today. If its still OTS it could very well end up that way. Dont have verification scores, but he Euro has been pretty good inside D3-4 this winter compared to the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I need the GFS to verify..just give me one big snow storm this winter. The NAM seems like it wants to do something with the moisture too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Welp, in any event ... lack of downstream blocking should assist this in moving right along. I did show an example of a slow mover in a weak block scenario; this doesn't vibe that way though. Already the next system behind it is completely different now in that it looks like a continental event; also conserving progressive flow tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not sure what the 12z's looks like but of the 12 members posted at PSU E-wall's site, 3 of the 00z GEF members did have a juggernaut event. When I saw that a few moments ago, I did raise a brow some. hmm. Are you referring to the 06z members? I recall 3 or 4 members showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GGEM is terrible. It's missing the intermediate s/w's the GFS has across the northern part of texas and another a bit further north. As a result the southern complex is left way behind. Doesn't even do much in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lol...wow ggem doesn't even get precip to ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GEFS haven't been awful per se. They were actually the first of any guidance to demonstrate the subsuming idea and a significant event for the Northeast. They have had issues with the amplitude of the southern stream, just like the op GFS struggled with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GGEM is terrible. It's missing the intermediate s/w's the GFS has across the northern part of texas and another a bit further north. As a result the southern complex is left way behind. Doesn't even do much in VA. There are some complex interactions that could make this go poof too. Literally, everything has to work in harmony, and that's what the GFS op shows. . We'll see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why couldn't it be the Euro doing this...I mean WTF.. I have to totally go against a snowstorm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What did the 06z GFS look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There are some complex interactions that could make this go poof too. Literally, everything has to work in harmony, and that's what the GFS op shows. . We'll see what the euro does. We could probably trace back to the very early init...re where the differences are. Those features have to be on a map somewhere if they're legit. But...i just don't care that much. The euro is usually very good with picking out all the features at this range so whichever way it goes...I'm onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why couldn't it be the Euro doing this...I mean WTF.. I have to totally go against a snowstorm now This winter that wouldn't mean much more. The Euro has had its fair share of fluke runs with major snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That's actually Typhoon Tip. Looks just like him. What ?? ...anyway, this could be amazing coup for the GFS during a year that has had few scores by this model. Interesting model fight - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What did the 06z GFS look like Head in toilet; pull lever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hit that f5 key in your birthday suit, be your weenie dream tonight lol @ Tolland jackpot on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm racking my brain..I just can't think of any big east coast snowstorms like this where the GFS has had first and the Euro didn't. The Euro has never had this as a direct hit up here..just a grazer. You just can't imagine the GFS is able to see something the Euro isn't. I am going to have to pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Head in toilet; pull lever LOL No consistency yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The GEFS haven't been awful per se. They were actually the first of any guidance to demonstrate the subsuming idea and a significant event for the Northeast. They have had issues with the amplitude of the southern stream, just like the op GFS struggled with. Well yeah for this event they have had a few individual members ride that idea for a few days now, I was talking more overall this winter they have performed poorly versus the Euro Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes. But it does look exactly like Tip lol. Even right down to the hair. And I am most interested in these ensemble members and the Euro run today. Should be interesting one way or another What are guys talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm racking my brain..I just can't think of any big east coast snowstorms like this where the GFS has had first and the Euro didn't. The Euro has never had this as a direct hit up here..just a grazer. You just can't imagine the GFS is able to see something the Euro isn't. I am going to have to pass Ignoring the D6 and D7 BEASTS on the Euro, the GFS scored first with the Boxing Day blizzard inside 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I agree - numerous pieces have to come together right in order for the storm to make it all the way up to New England. I'd bet the Euro trends more amplified and phased. It nearly always trends the same way as the UKMET, and the UKMET made a dramatic shift toward a significant storm: There are some complex interactions that could make this go poof too. Literally, everything has to work in harmony, and that's what the GFS op shows. . We'll see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL No consistency yet. Consistency hasn't been terrible. Subtle shifts make big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What did the 06z GFS look like Nothing like 0z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm racking my brain..I just can't think of any big east coast snowstorms like this where the GFS has had first and the Euro didn't. The Euro has never had this as a direct hit up here..just a grazer. You just can't imagine the GFS is able to see something the Euro isn't. I am going to have to pass 12/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This winter that wouldn't mean much more. The Euro has had its fair share of fluke runs with major snowstorms At D7 yes, none within 96 hours I don't believe. From what I can recall, the Euro has been the forerunner when it came to handling numerous s/w in the pattern, and whether they'd amplify or not. The GFS had been flat and the Euro had many SWFE that effected NNE only to have the GFS catch up within 72hrs. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm just going off recent weeks/months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Any worries about sub-optimal position of high / weak confluence? I vaguely remember past scenarios when the GFS was farthest NW outlier with Euro out to sea, but once Euro caught on it abruptly showed cutters... my fear is that once(if) Euro / GGEM catch on to the correct timing of all the players, they'll track the low closer to coast / farther inland... (Not trying to be a debbie, totally amped up about this as the futility anihilator we've been waiting for, but trying to flesh out details as we await future runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm racking my brain..I just can't think of any big east coast snowstorms like this where the GFS has had first and the Euro didn't. The Euro has never had this as a direct hit up here..just a grazer. You just can't imagine the GFS is able to see something the Euro isn't. I am going to have to pass Broken clock accuracy statement.....Remember, there are only a limited number of outcomes possible - the GFS has to blunder into one we like sometime. However, we must remember also that in statistics, there is no such thing as being "due"........so long as the population to be sampled is large and "re-usable". Unfortunately, the warm mild days have been issued with abandon this year count as being re-usable........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 12/26/2011 You mean 2010 ... Boxing Day, like I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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