CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it would just be a downpour IMBY with some wind but more interesting than nothing. May be a case of dumfounding pingers south of the Pike. In all seriousness though the threat is there. Would like to see the GEFS start picking up on it... and some of the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That would be a Kev to Will jackpot. Kev said to toss it in the garbage, Why does anyone even look at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well that was interesting, but lets see what the rest of the guidance does. Like I said earlier...having an op run or two show a hit while ensembles or maybe another op run disagree will still have us wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL! DT: *** ALERT **8 ALERT ** IGNORE THE 12Z GFS RUN ... AGAIN ** ...so how many more times will we have to ignore the GFS? I'd have to think the GFS is overdoing it until other models dig into that trough. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pretty soon it will be congrats SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's not a D9 solution, either though. Your right its not, But we are going to need some others move in the GFS direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 May be a case of dumfounding pingers south of the Pike. In all seriousness though the threat is there. Would like to see the GEFS start picking up on it... and some of the other globals. yeah agree there. both the 00z and 06z runs had a few members really amped up like that while all the rest were more like the majority of the op models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 May be a case of dumfounding pingers south of the Pike. In all seriousness though the threat is there. Would like to see the GEFS start picking up on it... and some of the other globals. Yea too bad the models are not as persistent as this winter as been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Kev said to toss it in the garbage, Why does anyone even look at the GFS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There are differences here that are important comparing the 00z to 12z run... Namely, the interaction between the northern stream/SPV fragmentation and the southern stream, which houses the initial Miller A type low. Last night's run had better SPV involvement and subsume scenario. There is some quasi tendency for that to happen on the 12z run but not as prodigiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh Dear God...no way..not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh Dear God...no way..not buying. 18"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This was my favorite so far... "Severe Weather Virginia another bull**** run WAIT til the ggem and ukmet come out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh Dear God...no way..not buying. if you aren't buying, i might be more inclined to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow..Maine should be hammered by this...would love to see the qpf for this here...Gotta think positive here for this...the negative attitude here lately has sucked...hopefully this event will make everyone content.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Cool what did you see? s/w diving into the PacNW is more amplified (and digs more SW in the flow) the PV lobe in Saskatchewan is more amplified to the west, and lags a little more (better timing for future phasing) The vortex in formation in southern Canada is more perturbed and stretched toward two lobes, rather than rounded and symmetric ... allows ridging to build in the OV ahead of the collection of converging s/w's, helping to amplify the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GGEM is coming around to the idea to some extent. It's got more energy now coming into the dakotas in the top part of the trough...missing the s/w in the upper texas area so it's not going to pull this all together I don't think but IMO it's going that way to a lesser extent (much). As a result it comes apart at about 60-72 hours from the GFS. Hard to go against the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Oh Dear God...no way..not buying. Get your pile manicure equipment ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 if you aren't buying, i might be more inclined to do so. All the more reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 s/w diving into the PacNW is more amplified (and digs more SW in the flow) the PV lobe in Saskatchewan is more amplified to the west, and lags a little more (better timing for future phasing) The vortex in formation in southern Canada is more perturbed and stretched toward two lobes, rather than rounded and symmetric ... allows ridging to build in the OV ahead of the collection of converging s/w's, helping to amplify the system Nice, going to be interesting what the rest of the 12 Z suite does with all the moving parts, Geezus can DT get any worse, he and JB are god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hit that f5 key in your birthday suit, be your weenie dream tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Also, look upstream at the 500mb vorticity around hour 36 to Oregon. There is a small but important intermediate stream S/W tucked in there; that is what really initiates the N stream over Manatoba to really come down... That stream interaction gets the timing ball rolling so to speak, such that when the southern stream then kicks out of the SW the result was (for the first time this year) a constructive wave interference scheme nearing the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This was my favorite so far... "Severe Weather Virginia another bull**** run WAIT til the ggem and ukmet come out" The problem is to get it up here its going to have to take a similar track to what the GFS has so some folks are going to get pooched on either end and i know which track i want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Also, look upstream at the 500mb vorticity around hour 36 to Oregon. There is a small but important intermediate stream S/W tucked in there; that is what really initiates the N stream over Manatoba to really come down... That stream interaction gets the timing ball rolling so to speak, such that when the southern stream then kicks out of the SW the result was (for the first time this year) a constructive wave interference scheme nearing the OV. GGEM not buying those features. Without them the northern energy gets way ahead and it's flat as heck. It's not terribly far off though..but the 12z GFS is going to be the extreme left solution. GGEM is going to be terrible I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That is quite a bit of precip. And ChrisM was that a picture of Richboy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 As I said, subtle shifts make significant difference. We CAN tell what this is doing by 00z 2/17 (hr36) The GFS isn't making any wild and crazy changes (as some like DT might imply). These are minor tweaks in the short term that have large ramifications in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That is quite a bit of precip. And ChrisM was that a picture of Richboy? That's actually Typhoon Tip. Looks just like him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Man, if that s/w coming out of the dakotas ejects faster that trough could be sharper and this thing could really get could up pretty far inland in the southeast before heading northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 As I said, subtle shifts make significant difference. We CAN tell what this is doing by 00z 2/17 (hr36) The GFS isn't making any wild and crazy changes (as some like DT might imply). These are minor tweaks in the short term that have large ramifications in the longer term. GGEM/GFS differ very early...well within their wheelhouses on specific features which propogate forward. Very bizzare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 As I said, subtle shifts make significant difference. We CAN tell what this is doing by 00z 2/17 (hr36) The GFS isn't making any wild and crazy changes (as some like DT might imply). These are minor tweaks in the short term that have large ramifications in the longer term. Yeah it's not like random shortwaves are showing up on the progs. You make small adjustments up in NW Canada and then have 4+ days to roll it forward and see what happens...of course you can have wild changes. An easy adjustment could make this go ENE of HSE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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