dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 DT holding chat's about this storm already...It's going to be a looooooooongggg 6 days. That is unless 00z loses the storm completely. Time to fire up a radio show...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Lot of action on the ensembles...worth watching anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 As we guessed, there are some decent weenie members in the 18z GEFS. Actually literally EVERY member produces at least a moderate snowstorm for a portion of the east coast. They ALL look different from the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Time to fire up a radio show...lol I remember when those existed..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Lot of action on the ensembles...worth watching anyway Couple good weenie panels in there, At least it is something to track, It has been pretty boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I remember when those existed..lol. Yeah when we actually had significant threat's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'll take P002 please. P006 goes so far west we rain...lol. Nice to see. Next few days should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At 500mb, the 18z GEFS actually take the vort lobe on the western side of the vortex in Hudson Bay and almost phase it with the stuff coming across the south. Worth watching anyways, but I would keep the excitement down for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's interesting to look at the ensemble mean images because it pretty much smooths out shortwaves #3, #5, and #6 into one trough. In general, the GFS op and ensemble are more pronounced with #3, and damps #5 and #6 ...compared to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At 500mb, the 18z GEFS actually take the vort lobe on the western side of the vortex in Hudson Bay and almost phase it with the stuff coming across the south. Worth watching anyways, but I would keep the excitement down for now. I love how you chum the waters ("phase!") and in the same breath hoist the caution flag. It's under 150 hours, time for the usual suspects to chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At 500mb, the 18z GEFS actually take the vort lobe on the western side of the vortex in Hudson Bay and almost phase it with the stuff coming across the south. Worth watching anyways, but I would keep the excitement down for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I love how you chum the waters ("phase!") and in the same breath hoist the caution flag. It's under 100 hours, time for the usual suspects to chuck. It's at 144 hours right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I love how you chum the waters ("phase!") and in the same breath hoist the caution flag. It's under 100 hours, time for the usual suspects to chuck. Well I'm describing what it shows, but I throw the "caution" flags out there because it seems some people take what you say and expect more. I try to be careful with my wording and I hope people understand what I mean. Maybe it's assumed people shouldn't go overboard, but it seems like some get more excited than they should be. I think it also conveys the uncertainty, especially this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I love how you chum the waters ("phase!") and in the same breath hoist the caution flag. It's under 100 hours, time for the usual suspects to chuck. Such a classic scooter post. It looks good...but... It's at 144 hours right now... Yeah...I would think this would be a stay up all night Saturday thing if it happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GEFS mean for 144hr. Classic Northeast snowstorm height pattern, FWIW. southern tip o greenland is awesome. what are they doing with the friday threat and how is it not interfering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's at 144 hours right now... I was in the future just now. So, yeah, at this point ... in the present ... it is T-144h. Got my events all mixed up. D'oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Scooter promised a huge storm! Lol. Wise to be cautious Someday we will see him weenie out like Ryan did for ROctober Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I was in the future just now. So, yeah, at this point ... in the present ... it is T-144h. Got my events all mixed up. D'oh! HOW DID THE MODELS LOOK??!!! Does the future Euro have the storm???!!!! hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 southern tip o greenland is awesome. what are they doing with the friday threat and how is it not interfering? The Friday storm is the trough over Newfoundland. The timing of the weekend storm is during the day Sunday (right now), so there's not really interference from the Friday storm ... in fact it's perfect spacing for a classic 50/50 low and trough approaching the east coast. The interference comes from all the other individual s/w's over the US and southern Canada interacting with each other ... either favorably or unfavorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This will probably be this year's version of Feb 24-25, 1989...make everyone think this is finally the storm we've been waiting for this winter and then have it pull the rug out from under us inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Friday storm is the trough over Newfoundland. The timing of the weekend storm is during the day Sunday (right now), so there's not really interference from the Friday storm ... in fact it's perfect spacing for a classic 50/50 low and trough approaching the east coast. The interference comes from all the other individual s/w's over the US and southern Canada interacting with each other ... either favorably or unfavorably. This is of course what we would've expected to see with the MJO as it is and with the continued sign for several days now of ridging in the DS area. This is trending in the right direction. Since we are NNE we deserve a moderate event Friday and then to share in the stemwinder Sunday. I thought sometimes that the first storm can relocate the baroclinic zone and f things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Scooter promised a huge storm! Lol. Wise to be cautious Someday we will see him weenie out like Ryan did for ROctober I pretty much weenied out all last winter and even October. Every storm this season has had red flags. Opposite of last year...I don't throw those yellow flags out for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well I'm describing what it shows, but I throw the "caution" flags out there because it seems some people take what you say and expect more. I try to be careful with my wording and I hope people understand what I mean. Maybe it's assumed people shouldn't go overboard, but it seems like some get more excited than they should be. I think it also conveys the uncertainty, especially this winter. This is totally AWESOME!!! What time do you expect the snow to start? What do you think about totals? 18-24" lollies to 36"? This is so great! What a turn of events ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I love how you chum the waters ("phase!") and in the same breath hoist the caution flag. It's under 150 hours, time for the usual suspects to chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You guys all suck..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You guys all suck..lol. You do a great job with your explanation of what could possibly happen or not, Some just can't see pass there snow goggles and twist it around...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You do a great job with your explanation of what could possibly happen or not, Some just can't see pass there snow goggles and twist it around...lol When I was a kid, I remember how awful it felt to be disappointed by a storm that changed to rain, while 30 miles away it was S+. I never want anyone else to feel that way...Dec '92 pretty much scarred me for life. I try to talk about the good and bad in events, it's just lately when you talk about the good...you have to talk about that bad with it. Last year it was just how much and when...this year it's how little and when will this disaster be over..lol. I'm not usually cautious or a downer by nature...I'm usually pretty objective. I will say, I like this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 When I was a kid, I remember how awful it felt to be disappointed by a storm that changed to rain, while 30 miles away it was S+. I never want anyone else to feel that way...Dec '92 pretty much scarred me for life. I try to talk about the good and bad in events, it's just lately when you talk about the good...you have to talk about that bad with it. Last year it was just how much and when...this year it's how little and when will this disaster be over..lol. I'm not usually cautious or a downer by nature...I'm usually pretty objective. I will say, I like this setup. Hey Guys!!! Scooter says a major N'oreaster is a lock!!!!! schweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 OT but how did Wxwatcher91 get a pro forecaster tag when he's still a junior in college? lol just curious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 OT but how did Wxwatcher91 get a pro forecaster tag when he's still a junior in college? lol just curious.. I think they call it "Special Favors" or something like that. I think Sam has had a paying gig with NH DOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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