CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Good thing there is confluence on this run..lol. This is why you gotta wait and see how things play out. Just too much going on to write it off or lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 looks like a mid-way solution... probably would be anyway - tough to bank on borderline history this early in the game. other models come NW, GFS comes to reality, ...scope's down the middle and we get a pedestrian winter deal. who would be disappointed give the road we've come... ? Biggest winter storm ever in the history of non-native humans to the east coast on April 3rd-6th, 2012 - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 You guys look good up there. Looks to cut inland for us Road trip! Please Randy, do not interject any optimism with this bunch. We only like to discuss the negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Big interior hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 wow...all out blizzard over the interior. bomb over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Please Randy, do not interject any optimism with this bunch. We only like to discuss the negatives. Scott you define the term, pot fooking kettle black ALEET ALEET heavy rain for RIC on 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is the GFS trying to phase like 5 different s/w's lol. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Please Randy, do not interject any optimism with this bunch. We only like to discuss the negatives. Not sure why you guys turned into the MA. No reason to be negative up that way when snow season runs until Mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Pingers to Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Bombs away! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow, here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Around hr36 is when things become pretty clear. It was around hr48 with the 00z run last night. ... 00z 2/17 By the 00z run tomorrow, we'll have a pretty good idea Cool what did you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Let's spend the next two hours figuring out why it's wrong. I feel like MRG lately complaining about the negativity but seriously...gag job. It was 4-5 days away and most had written it off. Average error is a couple of hundred miles at that range. Could see very early on this was going to be a biggie...when was the last time you saw a top to bottom trough sweep across the US? Not this year anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The ridging out west is also further west. A key to wavelength spacing. That's a better look. Yeah, I think it was Sam and I were discussing the "kicker" issues in the flow... It's really taking a bit of an engineering feat - for lack of better euphemism - to get the GFS to disregard all that noise in the flow in order to centralize the one's doing the deed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Its a beast, What a weenie run, Need to get more models on board before it can be taken seriously, But it does show what can happen if everything comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dat 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not the classic subsume that the 00z showed and John and I dream of, but like Scott pointed out, the upstream ridging looks less impeded this run, which is significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is a huge snow hit for most of SNE. There may be some ptype issues for me for a time but overall it's a futility destroyer...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL! DT: *** ALERT **8 ALERT ** IGNORE THE 12Z GFS RUN ... AGAIN ** ...so how many more times will we have to ignore the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not the classic subsume that the 00z showed and John and I dream of, but like Scott pointed out, the upstream ridging looks less impeded this run, which is significant I feel like there are two or three ways to get a storm out of this...but it's not an easy thing to do..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like bad snow growth and some sneaky mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 As the low approaches ACK, it cuts east JUST in time to save most of us. What a run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That would be a Kev to Will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like bad snow growth and some sneaky mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like bad snow growth and some sneaky mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like bad snow growth and some sneaky mid level warmth. it would just be a downpour IMBY with some wind but more interesting than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not sure why you guys turned into the MA. No reason to be negative up that way when snow season runs until Mid April. Unbearable the last few days. The GFS starts this very early, that trough is something of beauty - been ages since we've had one relatively in line/phase. I honestly cannot remember the last one where we hada gulf system that got pulled north. that said will need to await the rest of the guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sucks to have a bullseye track this far out, Don't know if it could get much better but may well be a moot point if we don't start to see other guidance jumping on board namelly the foreigners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Let's spend the next two hours figuring out why it's wrong. I feel like MRG lately complaining about the negativity but seriously...gag job. It was 4-5 days away and most had written it off. Average error is a couple of hundred miles at that range. Could see very early on this was going to be a biggie...when was the last time you saw a top to bottom trough sweep across the US? Not this year anyway. You are uniquely qualified to do so, yes LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sucks to have a bullseye track this far out, Don't know if it could get much better but may well be a moot point if we don't start to see other guidance jumping on board namelly the foreigners It's not a D9 solution, either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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