Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 IDK Garth, as Scooter has mentioned, we will now be getting precip and more chances at something. Since I have been living in Windham county 2001, I have not had under 20, although 06/07 came close. I hope this is not the year it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Up to this point this winter, The amusement has vaporized like all the potential snow i have shoveled Hasn't been that bad down here the last three weeks...in the teens on total snowfall. Better than last winter at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Weenies...It's not going to snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I hope this is not the year it happens. Yeah, since we only have +/-10 months left to live. Here comes the 12z goofus. Kind of interested to see if it is still banging that 0z solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Weenies...It's not going to snow this weekend *Sees big Euro run at 12z* "Feet and feet of snow incoming" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Taking the trend of the NAM is just as bad as the forecast imo. A trend that far out in a meso scale model, means very little imo. Then fine, it shouldn't be mentioned at all lol. But as long as it was being discussed, it should be noted where it was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Weenies...It's not going to snow this weekend Flurries is snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Taking the trend of the NAM is just as bad as the forecast imo. A trend that far out in a meso scale model, means very little imo. and especially given that models don't really trend anyway. I understand that people are discussing the NAM and what it's doing...and that's fine. But how much does it mean? meh. It only trended because it was likely so far off of reality lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Eh ..about that... I agree in principle, however, the old adage about not knocking consistency works for reason. The trouble is, seasonal persistence usually has a reason for taking place; we just don't know why/what that is. In this case, an incredible penache for no events - it's literally that simple. It's not a matter of no snow, per se; or at least it shouldn't be looked upon in that way. It's really quite literally this simple: how can it snow if there is nothing going on? That's the problem. Can't hammer it any more clearly, there are no events. That's the seasonal persistence, and for that, this "Because of this winter" does carry some merit whether we like to admit that or not. Maybe it is deconstructive wave interference being favored. Maybe it is dumbs stupid (I doubt it) luck - who knows. Because of this winter not producing any events being too persistent to be ignored, it's a far more valuable question in my mind to ask why that is, rather than dismissing (not that you are of course...). I don't like it, no. But I am also a realist. I'm just trying to figure out why the models can't latch onto anything with continuity, and it's working out that nothing then goes on to take place. It'd be cool as candy if that 00z GFS came back though. Well I've actually preached that to a point, because the overall pattern does cause people to say that. In other words, a persistent pattern can cause a statement like that...seemingly thrown out there without any science behind it, to be true. Truth is, there is a little science to that. But, I don't think the pattern is the same now, as it was in December and January...especially this weekend coming up. Also, lets not forget that we have these storms every winter, and every winter we see models show us a day 5 bomb, only for it not to happen. So while we may think "oh this winter..." if this fails to occur, fact of the matter is that we have this happen to us every winter. I do understand the frustration though, of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 and especially given that models don't really trend anyway. I understand that people are discussing the NAM and what it's doing...and that's fine. But how much does it mean? meh. It only trended because it was likely so far off of reality lol. That's definitely debatable. Considering the assimilation process employed that retains the previous short term forecast, there will always be "ghosts of forecasts past" embedded in the latest run, which then decay with each run in the future. So there is likely to be some inherent "trend" depicted in the model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z GFS looks like it's going to be a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Strongly disagree. The trend matters waaay more than the forecast itself, especially this far out on the NAM. I don't give two hoots if the NAM is closer to the Euro or the GFS right now ...because who the heck takes the NAM as a forecast at hr84. The trend is something we can take away from it though. Considering that just yesterday it was holding back the southern energy sooo long that it would eventually phase with that west coast kicker, as I said, for it to correct itself, it would likely produce some intermediate solutions where the southern energy is getting closer, but still significantly lags the northern stream s/w's. That's where we are now. Sam, I kind of understand where they are coming from, but if it is any help, here is the way I use the NAM. For impulses the model processes, if they are initialized squarely in the NAM's domain the model can do better. I am not entirely certain how the modelers do this, but when impulses are relayed into the "edge" of the NAM's domain via other products, that could be a problem. The reason is, the NAM (I do know) has different thermodynamic considerations because of its convection/convective initialization schemes - if you take the former and relay those derived events into the latter, you get problems with permutations arising sending ripples down stream via forcing/wave spacing, and so forth. This could atone for why the NAM has at times worldly different ideas about it 72 hour range compared to the 24-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well I've actually preached that to a point, because the overall pattern does cause people to say that. In other words, a persistent pattern can cause a statement like that...seemingly thrown out there without any science behind it, to be true. Truth is, there is a little science to that. But, I don't think the pattern is the same now, as it was in December and January...especially this weekend coming up. Also, lets not forget that we have these storms every winter, and every winter we see models show us a day 5 bomb, only for it not to happen. So while we may think "oh this winter..." if this fails to occur, fact of the matter is that we have this happen to us every winter. I do understand the frustration though, of this winter. Persistence is one thing petulance is another. This winter has made me as petulant as I ever have been on the boards, persistent phail does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z GFS looks like it's going to be a good one I thought so too...well better than 06z I guess. Not sure if it will be like 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I thought so too...well better than 06z I guess. Not sure if it will be like 00z. Not like 00z probably ...still has that pesky impulse (in Alberta at hr54) that's kicking the vortex lobe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There are S/W's all over the place..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z GFS looks like it's going to be a good one Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z GFS looks like it's going to be a good one at what hour in this run did you deduce that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 stronger all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not like 00z probably ...still has that pesky impulse (in Alberta at hr54) that's kicking the vortex lobe I see that, but it is also farther west with the ULL west of SEA which tries to pump more ridging into the Canadian Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There are S/W's all over the place..lol. i think it may be a little better than that 06z run but at quick glance it looks closer to that 06 run than the 00z...mainly due to the speed at which it ejects the energy down south and the little s/w over the canadian plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 i think it may be a little better than that 06z run but at quick glance it looks closer to that 06 run than the 00z...mainly due to the speed at which it ejects the energy down south and the little s/w over the canadian plains though just looking at the surface now...certainly looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 There are S/W's all over the place..lol. That s/w embedded in the (already short wavelength) ridge in the west is not helping at all ... that wasn't even there in the 00z run lol (just shear vorticity north of the ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 contintental trough, positively tilted, but nonetheless one of the first times all winter/first time I've seen one that broad/deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Its further west then 0z at this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The ridging out west is also further west. A key to wavelength spacing. That's a better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is there any doubt this is going to be an east coast monster with that trough? Someone is going to get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I see that, but it is also farther west with the ULL west of SEA which tries to pump more ridging into the Canadian Rockies. You guys look good up there. Looks to cut inland for us Road trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The results may be the same or a little better then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 at what hour in this run did you deduce that? Around hr36 is when things become pretty clear. It was around hr48 with the 00z run last night. ... 00z 2/17 By the 00z run tomorrow, we'll have a pretty good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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