dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The 12z NAM is almost matching up exactly with 00z GFS at H5.. through 42 hours at least. Also, go compare the 00z GFS and the March 2001 storm's H5.. its scary close Side comment: I agree with Dan's point about the 00z and wow factor. I know this winter has sucked, but why don't the Weenies in here, weenie out a little bit? The GFS actually showed a hit to NE and people just assume throw it out. Scott was the only one to say " man that would crush eastern areas with a banding signal". Why can't we stay stuff like that? Instead we get the typical Weenies saying "its not going to happen. Toss it. This winter sucks. I'm depressed. The euro doesn't have it." What are you trying to prove? Are you trying to prove to will and Ryan that your not a weenie? I know every single one of you got excited when you saw the 00z. Show your weeniesm! But limit it. Don't get 5ppd. I'm getting my hopes up for this storm and I don't care if I get let down. If it doesn't happen, sure ill be pissed, but whatever. You guys are lying saying you have no emotional investment right now. Its fricken 2/15 for God's sake. We only have so much weenieing left! The general aroma this board sucks right now. C'mon dude, Really?? If its a MECS on all guidance on friday everyone will be on board, 1 model run is not that exciting other then weenie fodder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 AEESNHT Steve, what are the chances of you and me seeing less than 20" this year, and how often has that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Then NAM just underwent a major flip towards the GFS solution from last night -- it looks nothing like its 00 or 06z runs. The NAM looks nothing like the GFS...it's progressive with the northern stream and delayed with the southern. That equals no phase and garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And now we know why SnowNH is 5 ppd. 21 bun salute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 When faced with reality and a winter that has zero personality its hard to get excited about one run on a model when everything else in model land is meh. haha...i like that description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 When faced with reality and a winter that has zero personality its hard to get excited about one run on a model when everything else in model land is meh. Wow man, just wow... never did I think you'd be so pessimistic... you're usually finding silver linings all over the place. When Steve is ready to toss the towel, you know it's been a lousy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Steve, what are the chances of you and me seeing less than 20" this year, and how often has that happened? IDK Garth, as Scooter has mentioned, we will now be getting precip and more chances at something. Since I have been living in Windham county 2001, I have not had under 20, although 06/07 came close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 And now we know why SnowNH is 5 ppd. 21 bun salute. Most of the other regions threads seemed to think it looked a lot better. I don't care and won't look at that model, or it could be there just not as depressed as most here and are still able to have their hopes crushed like grapes by later models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the nam may have shifted from its previous runs - god knows it has a tendency to be a bit unstable beyond about hr18 - but it would have a loooooong way to go to be close to the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow man, just wow... never did I think you'd be so pessimistic... you're usually finding silver linings all over the place. When Steve is ready to toss the towel, you know it's been a lousy winter! If skimrg was the coach of this thread a lot of players would have been sent to the showers recently. This thread is like the fake Clint Eastwood commercials on snl last weekend. "it's the fourth quarter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If skimrg was the coach of this thread a lot of players would have been sent to the showers recently. This thread is like the fake Clint Eastwood commercials on snl last weekend. "it's the fourth quarter and our team is getting blown out." Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yeah the NAM looks nothing like it's previous runs...it's a **** model though, that's why. It was closer to the euro than it was the gfs. It is closer to the GFS than it was before..but who cares given that's it's different enough that it won't be close to phasing the northern and southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just got up, and looking at last night's runs. The 06z GFS wasn't some monumental shift back. It was a little slower with the southern energy. Literally 100 miles east would make a huge difference. The other change though that I didn't like seeing was the introduction of a more amplified s/w diving into northern Saskatchewan, flattening an already scrunched up ridge and pushing the northern vortex lobe to the east. This is all 72 hours out. More than enough time for massive reconstruction of the forecast that could produce a driving rainstorm for all of New England. You get my point. Subtle changes in the handling of all these different components have large ramifications on the sensible weather outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 My guess is outrage ... …now that I’ve seen the bevy of different operational models types from the overnight, I’m far less excited about a big event over the weekend. Typically that would not be enough to dissuade me; if I see cause for x,y, z as supported by a,b, c philosophy, I'll even at times differ and go with the maverick solution. This time, however, the "other indicators" are maybe a C+ as far as a supportive landscape. I'm speaking to the 00z GFS' elixir run for the ages. Goes to show, even in the worst of winters, you can still eek out a moral victor by getting a run that looks(ed) like that did - the shear entertainment value of that is quite high for an audience of weary watchers. Doesn’t mean it won’t return or show up in future runs, but there really is/was very limited support from non-GFS runs for that 00z solution. The closest I've seen is the GGEM, but it was too far SE with the eventual track and impact nonetheless. In fact, the weight of the runs overall are heavily toward an entirely different scenario, Interesting 00z GFS run though… mad blizzard – vs – the world. And a detonation time of 108 hours out ... that's getting reasonably within range. It certainly sucks some that at D4.5 we couldn't get some consensus in favor of the winter weather fans. I tell you what, the 06z lost it and went Euro big time - probably a game ender for this puppy, but as NCEP said yesterday and it probably still stands, much of this will need short range guidance before it irons out. The whole notion of the subsuming N stream and so forth ... that's still on the table however fleeting. Teleconnectors do offer some room for something. However, I'm really not impressed with anything here until ANYTHING actually happens during a season that seems oddly winning the lower probability no shows at ever turn. Not sure scientifically why that is happening; I'm toying with something about deconstructive wave interference schemes somehow heavily physically driven. Anyway, we surged through 7-8- now into phase 1 with moderate to strong MJO, concurrent with antecedent and during a -AO down to -4SD at one point, and a PNA that rose to +1SD and held for 2 weeks; not one single solitary event took place for all that shimmering suggestion. Nadda. It's really quite remarkable in its self - though I understand no one around here gives a schit about that kind of result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 yeah the NAM looks nothing like it's previous runs...it's a **** model though, that's why. It was closer to the euro than it was the gfs. It is closer to the GFS than it was before..but who cares given that's it's different enough that it won't be close to phasing the northern and southern stream. Yeah, its clear its nothing like the gfs as far as ns/ss interaction, 0zgfs ns was stronger and further west allowing a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, its clear its nothing like the gfs as far as ns/ss interaction, 0zgfs ns was stronger and further west allowing a phase. Posting an 84 hour NAM map should get you waterboarded at the next conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Posting an 84 hour NAM map should get you waterboarded at the next conference. so should talking about it, just showing the differences, since people are comparing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM has been playing catch up for the last few days. The trend is maintained in the right direction, and that's all that matters at this point, especially considering that the storm is still outside the NAM's wheelhouse of 6 hours Here's a post I made yesterday re: the NAM I just noticed the NAM has actually been holding back the southern energy so long that it wants to phase with the s/w coming onshore in the west lol. The 00z run is moving closer to the rest of the guidance, but expect some very suppressed solutions before it joins the pack as the disturbance is trapped under a ridge between the vortex and the western s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I still think there is too much instability in the modeled solutions to write this off yet...but it's not like at anytime this threat has been over 50% chance of happening. The threat of a storm is higher than climo...but still well below "likely". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM has been playing catch up for the last few days. The trend is maintained in the right direction, and that's all that matters at this point, especially considering that the storm is still outside the NAM's wheelhouse of 6 hours Here's a post I made yesterday re: the NAM I'm sorry Sam, but the trend on the Nam, especially that far out doesn't mean a damn thing one way or the other. It's way closer to the Euro than it is the GFS in that range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I still think there is too much instability in the modeled solutions to write this off yet...but it's not like at anytime this threat has been over 50% chance of happening. The threat of a storm is higher than climo...but still well below "likely". Yeah I think in the back of our minds, we are being realistic overall, but I wouldn't write it off "because of this winter" or "because the GFS shows a hit." Bad logic, when you have such a complicated flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think people just need to relax until we get another full model suite through....if we look at a unanimous miss at about 130pm today...time to just enjoy whatever we've got. Hopefully we have an outlier or two to at least amuse ourselves. Best we can hope for in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM has been playing catch up for the last few days. The trend is maintained in the right direction, and that's all that matters at this point, especially considering that the storm is still outside the NAM's wheelhouse of 6 hours Here's a post I made yesterday re: the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm sorry Sam, but the trend on the Nam, especially that far out doesn't mean a damn thing one way or the other. It's way closer to the Euro than it is the GFS in that range anyway. Strongly disagree. The trend matters waaay more than the forecast itself, especially this far out on the NAM. I don't give two hoots if the NAM is closer to the Euro or the GFS right now ...because who the heck takes the NAM as a forecast at hr84. The trend is something we can take away from it though. Considering that just yesterday it was holding back the southern energy sooo long that it would eventually phase with that west coast kicker, as I said, for it to correct itself, it would likely produce some intermediate solutions where the southern energy is getting closer, but still significantly lags the northern stream s/w's. That's where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM has no wheelhouse. Sometimes it initializes well. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think people just need to relax until we get another full model suite through....if we look at a unanimous miss at about 130pm today...time to just enjoy whatever we've got. Hopefully we have an outlier or two to at least amuse ourselves. Best we can hope for in 2012. Up to this point this winter, The amusement has vaporized like all the potential snow i have shoveled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah I think in the back of our minds, we are being realistic overall, but I wouldn't write it off "because of this winter" or "because the GFS shows a hit." Bad logic, when you have such a complicated flow. Yea but seeing ENS splatter the remains of a carcass with buckshot.... Is the flow so complicated that even in the 1-3 day period multi-million dollar supercomputers are way apart in evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Strongly disagree. The trend matters waaay more than the forecast itself, especially this far out on the NAM. I don't give two hoots if the NAM is closer to the Euro or the GFS right now ...because who the heck takes the NAM as a forecast at hr84. The trend is something we can take away from it though. Considering that just yesterday it was holding back the southern energy sooo long that it would eventually phase with that west coast kicker, as I said, for it to correct itself, it would likely produce some intermediate solutions where the southern energy is getting closer, but still significantly lags the northern stream s/w's. That's where we are now. Taking the trend of the NAM is just as bad as the forecast imo. A trend that far out in a meso scale model, means very little imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yea but seeing ENS splatter the remains of a carcass with buckshot.... Is the flow so complicated that even in the 1-3 day period multi-million dollar supercomputers are way apart in evolution? It happens. Hopefully with all the recon flights, we get some sort of a hint in the models today. Even if one or two of the op models showed a hit, I don't think it would change my opinion much..especially if ensembles are a bit different or continue with the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 IDK Garth, as Scooter has mentioned, we will now be getting precip and more chances at something. Since I have been living in Windham county 2001, I have not had under 20, although 06/07 came close. I hope this is not the year it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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