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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat


OKpowdah

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12 hours ago everybody/most everybody had written this off. It's the goofus, until the other models start to bring it back north it might as well be the JMA.

What's worth noting is this possibilty did exist even in this pattern if the timing was better.

I don't think people wrote it off, we just commented how it may be tough to get a good storm and that everything has to come together...not an impossible thing to do, but would definitely take some work.

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No point in getting too high or low on this system yet. I haven't commented that much on it since there really isn't much to say with completely unstable features playing a significant role in if this storm happens or not.

And the features will probably stay "unstable" on the models for at least another day. Probably more bridge jumping and naked high 5s through the day today and tonight from some people.

I know it's useless to comment on details, but from a fun standpoint....there was a great banding signal for central areas and even ern areas from hr 114 and hr 120. Like I said...it's more of a fantasy standpoint..but it was nice to look at.

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I just can't see how the GFS is even close to being right. I think we'd need to see more of th Ens members be hits at 12z today to have any feeling that it was right.

Sometimes the GFS can sniff stuff out. It's done it before. The GFS is famous for losing it, and then the euro snatches it up and runs away with it. I do agree that we should at least see some models or ensemble members hint at it more, but I don't think the 12z runs will clear up the picture. Like Will said...there isn't much to talk about right now. It's a guessing game as to who is right.

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I watched it and dismissed it out of pocket. AWT Euro then 06 said meh

A lot of shuffling of features, Going to be a few more days to sort this one out, I would have to say it does bear watching but unless we see other guidance start to hint of this system coming north its just another threat to watch

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This is just fun from a model fantasy perspective - obviously, I'd like it to play out - but we haven't even had all that much on the models to ogle at this winter re:big storms within a reasonable time horizon.

It is sickening they way things played out this winter. Hard to believe it is almost completely over within a month. Hopefully we do have something real to track before its adios to a garbage winter.

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It is sickening they way things played out this winter. Hard to believe it is almost completely over within a month. Hopefully we do have something real to track before its adios to a garbage winter.

At this point, I'll settle for a cold snap that is strong enough to start the bulbs and keep the kudzu out of the Merrimack come spring.

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Wow...I got excited after seeing last night's 00Z GFS weenie solution especially since it's only D5 and not D9-10. As the atmosphere is a non-linear system (QG equations are non-linear and permit wild things to happen), it will mean the whole world of difference on the models whether or not there is phasing. The other models are close, but not there.

Given the troughing in the Rockies, we really need the northern stream to dig and capture the southern stream energy in order for something to come up the coast. Ideally, you want ridging out there in order to get a big storm on the east coast and not a trough. That southern stream stuff will not get up here on its own with this type of setup; it will need help from the northern stream. If we had a big PNA ridge out west, I think the southern stream feature might have a shot at getting up here on its own, given the latent heat machines that they can become.

This is one of those scenarios where the models aren't going to have a clue until we get inside of 72 hours. We're going to see a variety of solutions I think.

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The 12z NAM is almost matching up exactly with 00z GFS at H5.. through 42 hours at least.

Also, go compare the 00z GFS and the March 2001 storm's H5.. its scary close

Side comment: I agree with Dan's point about the 00z and wow factor. I know this winter has sucked, but why don't the Weenies in here, weenie out a little bit? The GFS actually showed a hit to NE and people just assume throw it out. Scott was the only one to say " man that would crush eastern areas with a banding signal". Why can't we stay stuff like that?

Instead we get the typical Weenies saying "its not going to happen. Toss it. This winter sucks. I'm depressed. The euro doesn't have it." What are you trying to prove? Are you trying to prove to will and Ryan that your not a weenie? I know every single one of you got excited when you saw the 00z.

Show your weeniesm! But limit it. Don't get 5ppd.

I'm getting my hopes up for this storm and I don't care if I get let down. If it doesn't happen, sure ill be pissed, but whatever. You guys are lying saying you have no emotional investment right now. Its fricken 2/15 for God's sake. We only have so much weenieing left!

The general aroma this board sucks right now.

Edit: yup and it starts with Ginxy with the first sarcastic comment of the day. Gonna be another sarcastic day in here I guess... sarcasm is the ultimate douchiness

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Maybe we are all just worn out by model failure and the giveth and take away type model runs...Just maybe...The GFS is not fiction but fact? Are we just to stubborn to accept the possibility that we could have an all out blitz here by late Sunday in the Northeast.. Alot of us are throwing caution to the wind here this morning..We shall see what happens later today and into the next two days if other model members follow behind..Just saying!

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The 12z NAM is almost matching up exactly with 00z GFS at H5.. through 42 hours at least.

Also, go compare the 00z GFS and the March 2001 storm's H5.. its scary close

Side comment: I agree with Dan's point about the 00z and wow factor. I know this winter has sucked, but why don't the Weenies in here, weenie out a little bit? The GFS actually showed a hit to NE and people just assume throw it out. Scott was the only one to say " man that would crush eastern areas with a banding signal". Why can't we stay stuff like that?

Instead we get the typical Weenies saying "its not going to happen. Toss it. This winter sucks. I'm depressed. The euro doesn't have it." What are you trying to prove? Are you trying to prove to will and Ryan that your not a weenie? I know every single one of you got excited when you saw the 00z.

Show your weeniesm! But limit it. Don't get 5ppd.

The general aroma this board sucks right now.

Google "depression - major symptoms" and you'll know.

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The 12z NAM is almost matching up exactly with 00z GFS at H5.. through 42 hours at least.

Also, go compare the 00z GFS and the March 2001 storm's H5.. its scary close

Side comment: I agree with Dan's point about the 00z and wow factor. I know this winter has sucked, but why don't the Weenies in here, weenie out a little bit? The GFS actually showed a hit to NE and people just assume throw it out. Scott was the only one to say " man that would crush eastern areas with a banding signal". Why can't we stay stuff like that?

Instead we get the typical Weenies saying "its not going to happen. Toss it. This winter sucks. I'm depressed. The euro doesn't have it." What are you trying to prove? Are you trying to prove to will and Ryan that your not a weenie? I know every single one of you got excited when you saw the 00z.

Show your weeniesm! But limit it. Don't get 5ppd.

I'm getting my hopes up for this storm and I don't care if I get let down. If it doesn't happen, sure ill be pissed,  but whatever. You guys are lying saying you have no emotional investment right now. Its fricken 2/15 for God's sake. We only have so much weenieing left!

The general aroma this board sucks right now.

Awesome run, blizzard for most. Reality came out at 1 AM, OTS. Look at Ens bro at long range, meh. Maybe we get excited by Friday, why bother 5 days out for one run? You are overstating here.

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The 12z NAM is almost matching up exactly with 00z GFS at H5.. through 42 hours at least.

Also, go compare the 00z GFS and the March 2001 storm's H5.. its scary close

Side comment: I agree with Dan's point about the 00z and wow factor. I know this winter has sucked, but why don't the Weenies in here, weenie out a little bit? The GFS actually showed a hit to NE and people just assume throw it out. Scott was the only one to say " man that would crush eastern areas with a banding signal". Why can't we stay stuff like that?

Instead we get the typical Weenies saying "its not going to happen. Toss it. This winter sucks. I'm depressed. The euro doesn't have it." What are you trying to prove? Are you trying to prove to will and Ryan that your not a weenie? I know every single one of you got excited when you saw the 00z.

Show your weeniesm! But limit it. Don't get 5ppd.

I'm getting my hopes up for this storm and I don't care if I get let down. If it doesn't happen, sure ill be pissed, but whatever. You guys are lying saying you have no emotional investment right now. Its fricken 2/15 for God's sake. We only have so much weenieing left!

The general aroma this board sucks right now.

:weenie:

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