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2/19 East Coast Winter Storm Threat


OKpowdah

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It's actually kinda cool how late that northern stream fully phases in on the GFS...it actually causes a prolonged event...it snows for like 30 hours or so in SNE. How often do you see the heavy snow from the "primary" (Miller A/B composite) run from Lake Huron to BGM? Most of the time that's over type of stuff is over Indiana and Ohio in a classic nor'easter.

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The s/w's and their interactions are fascinating to watch. Just loop the 00z 500 charts focused over western North American and eastern Pacific and you'll see what I mean. That's what I meant yesterday, by having everything work in harmony. It also goes to show you how difficult it may be. I expect some more changes or jumps today in guidance.

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The overall longwave pattern (ie trough/ridge/trough pattern) still imo, is tough to get a 00z solution. It's much easier to get a graze, but given the complicated pattern up in AK and NW Canada, it would not take a huge shift to get something more robust. Some EC members are closer to the GFS op, but the euro ensembles are way se like the op run. If we are to see anything out of this, I think guidance needs to hint at it this aftn.

This wouldn't be the first time where models sh*t the bed until inside 48 hrs. Recall Dec 26, 2010. S/W's diving SSE into the Plains always seem to give models problems.

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