Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Its probably convective feedback at work again. That's code word for NCEP models suck beyond about 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Sam is right, it's close to something big, but lots of cooks in the kitchen right now. We'll see what 00z does. 100% same page. As modeled right now I'd like that s/w to dig for the baja, be gone, or not be as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Maybe this will be a 1992 redux where the storm buries Nova Scotia and the mairitimes under several feet of snow...does anyone remember that one? The thing just blew up offshore and then moved north...only a few hundred miles too far away in a winter that just really sucked anyways...that was sometime mid to late february if I recollect correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 February 2nd..i was off on time of month..i remember being so jealous of them..guess that is how i knew I was a weenie in the making lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 February 2nd..i was off on time of month..i remember being so jealous of them..guess that is how i knew I was a weenie in the making lol There was another storm in Feb 2004 that was a triple phaser that happened too far offshore but hookd north and destroyed Nova Scotia under like 4 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 There was another storm in Feb 2004 that was a triple phaser that happened too far offshore but hookd north and destroyed Nova Scotia under like 4 feet of snow. Sometimes referred to as "white Juan" after the hurricane of the same name. Was actually an extreme event for them as NS generally, when they do get snow, get the leftovers from 'noreasters that effect New England (i.e. after the low has occluded and the good forcing is gone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sam, Can you make one of your cool maps that numbers the shortwaves in regards to why the GFS showed a bomb? (Shortwave #) The original map helped a ton. Also, Will, what are your thoughts on this? You haven't really said much... (I know you feel about day 5 threats..lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 how come every storm has to have an analog? Can't this just be a storm in February 2012? I'd think after only 40 or 50 years we haven't seen every possible permutation that would deliver a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 how come every storm has to have an analog? Can't this just be a storm in February 2012? I'd think after only 40 or 50 years we haven't seen every possible permutation that would deliver a snow event. It's a forecasting technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 how come every storm has to have an analog? Can't this just be a storm in February 2012? I'd think after only 40 or 50 years we haven't seen every possible permutation that would deliver a snow event. extrapolate that viewpoint, and meteorology becomes historical archiving with no value for forecasting but funny point nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's a forecasting technique. Sure but it seems like every system has a bunch of analogs that would deliver somewhere between 100 and 1500" of snow a winter. I'm curious to the efficacy of analog forecasting. extrapolate that viewpoint, and meteorology becomes historical archiving with no value for forecasting but funny point nonetheless I wouldnt' think we have an extensive enough archive of accurate samples to really make it fruitful in all situations. It's interesting, just curious as to how accurate that method is. There were a bunch of analogs for the last event too, and unless they involved lots of pissed off weather enthusiasts and a few flurries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sure but it seems like every system has a bunch of analogs that would deliver somewhere between 100 and 1500" of snow a winter. I'm curious to the efficacy of analog forecasting. I wouldnt' think we have an extensive enough archive of accurate samples to really make it fruitful in all situations. It's interesting, just curious as to how accurate that method is. There were a bunch of analogs for the last event too, and unless they involved lots of pissed off weather enthusiasts and a few flurries... true but the accuracy and value of using analogs is limited by resolution of our data gathering... the "bunch of analogs for the last event" differed from the epic Feb 11 2012 Whiffer by features pointed out as well as countless other differences... kind of an obvious point... we're generating some disagreement because it's so freakin boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sure but it seems like every system has a bunch of analogs that would deliver somewhere between 100 and 1500" of snow a winter. I'm curious to the efficacy of analog forecasting. I wouldnt' think we have an extensive enough archive of accurate samples to really make it fruitful in all situations. It's interesting, just curious as to how accurate that method is. There were a bunch of analogs for the last event too, and unless they involved lots of pissed off weather enthusiasts and a few flurries... for me the analog is a pattern recognition, not a storm recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 true but the accuracy and value of using analogs is limited by resolution of our data gathering... the "bunch of analogs for the last event" differed from the epic Feb 11 2012 Whiffer by features pointed out as well as countless other differences... kind of an obvious point... we're generating some disagreement because it's so freakin boring I think eventually it could be a spot on tool, but that there will always be a degree of variability due to differences in data collection at the time the analogs are being generated. barely talked about here that last system tore up the northern gulf pretty good. Some boats as big as 40+ feet flipped as the squall line passed. Pretty impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 for me the analog is a pattern recognition, not a storm recognition. Analogs are what allow us to recognize certain features that usually end up causing a storm to trend one way or another...sometimes they are obvious (such as many SWFEs) and sometimes they are not. When no discernable features exist, we rely on the model data more than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z DGEX has a decent snow storm for the M/A ...just an FYI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Eggs, Cooks and Kickers Not a good combo in the snow dept Wrt analogs, I am amazed at those (for ex. Will) who can just look at a model map and recognize it as being similar to storm x from 1972 or something How the computers do that is beyond me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Eggs, Cooks and Kickers Not a good combo in the snow dept Wrt analogs, I am amazed at those (for ex. Will) who can just look at a model map and recognize it as being similar to storm x from 1972 or something How the computers do that is beyond me as well yeah, and we ran out of toasters a long time ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hey, Will....just out of curiosity, do you still think my shot at futility is 1\500.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm obviously betting against it, but I am not dismissing like like I have all of the other threats....way too early to give up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hey, Will....just out of curiosity, do you still think my shot at futility is 1\500.... Well each passing week it obviously gets lower...but I still think its well under 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well each passing week it obviously gets lower...but I still think its well under 1%. He will get 6" of mush on April 15 that melts within 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I just noticed the NAM has actually been holding back the southern energy so long that it wants to phase with the s/w coming onshore in the west lol. The 00z run is moving closer to the rest of the guidance, but expect some very suppressed solutions before it joins the pack as the disturbance is trapped under a ridge between the vortex and the western s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well each passing week it obviously gets lower...but I still think its well under 1%. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I just don't think it's wise to calculate percentages off of climo for every single season....I think you have to employ a bit of subjectivity. This year, what can go wrong has gone wrong and the first half of March looks very warm.....if this next threat goes out to sea, I don't think the probability is anywhere near 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dare I say the 00z GFS looks like it's going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I just don't think it's wise to calculate percentages off of climo for every single season....I think you have to employ a bit of subjectivity. This year, what can go wrong has gone wrong and the first half of March looks very warm.....if this next threat goes out to sea, I don't think the probability is anywhere near 1%. Honestly if this threat doesn't work out you'll see many quit on this winter officially. Late February with a warm pattern will put the nail in the coffin. Hopefully atleast NNE can get something in march so I can ski a little more when I get back from fort myers on 2/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Here we go boys and girls. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow...at 105, the northern and southern streams are oh so close to phasing. New run, different outcome. This is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 This is like Twilight Zone -esque. Where is everyone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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