OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL It's always the 18z run... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS will be more amped up. At 105, the trough in the SE is already going negative. However...the persistant trough in the Rockies keeps messing with the evolution of our EC storm. I mean if that would just go poof...we could have a real monster off the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol...congrats RIC. Torched BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Man, so close to being a massive storm for the Northeast. Just drop that SPV lobe south, and BOOM. Dang kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL It's always the 18z run... wow You and I need some Tebow runs for 3 days followed by a Flutie run 00z Saturday and a Stanford-Cal marching band run 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can a 1004 LP in the panhandle of TX really keep this from coming up the coast. I bet that confluence to the north of us isn't helping either. It's like pulling teeth trying to get a storm into these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Torched BL Probably, but it's still the d4-5 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS will be more amped up. it'll amp over the next few days ...ebbing and flowing like the tide, only to not snow. Meanwhile, the GFS and ECM are laughing their assess off at how they get the moods in here swinging like a yo-yo. Muah hahahhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 You and I need some Tebow runs for 3 days followed by a Flutie run 00z Saturday and a Stanford-Cal marching band run 12z Sat. Sounds like a plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I wonder if indeed we are going to have to Tebow it and hope it's all srn energy. The ridge axis is too far east I think to have enough time and allow the phasing. And yes, another weenie 18z run..lol. It still goes to the idea of people needing to keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 it'll amp over the next few days ...ebbing and flowing like the tide, only to not snow. Meanwhile, the GFS and ECM are laughing their assess off at how they get the moods in here swinging like a yo-yo. Muah hahahhahahaha To top it off the GEFS will probably have a few members that drop over a foot in parts of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The 18Z GFS should be saved by anyone who wants to show someone why a true -NAO is pretty important. You're dealing with a storm that would likely cut up the coast over NYC or LI verbatim if not for the trough swinging across Ontario, yet at the same time if the system is 18 hours slower the vort kicks it OTS. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You and I need some Tebow runs for 3 days followed by a Flutie run 00z Saturday and a Stanford-Cal marching band run 12z Sat. All we need is a proven commodity, Eli's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Man, so close to being a massive storm for the Northeast. Just drop that SPV lobe south, and BOOM. Dang kicker While it is certainly true that is one way to drub up a whopper, i think the flow is inherently too fast for that too happen. In fact, the progressive nature to the entire circulation between Hawaii and the west Atlantic I am beginning to see as being our biggest problem for the CONUS. With so much longitudinal component to the flow being arisen in middle ranges that is apparently not applied to the extended ranges, these storms keep disappearing as they get into nearer terms. In order for phasing to occur you need the N-S component (the meridional flow) to not be over-whelmed by the "stretchiness" of the flow. In physics, the wave frequency is what is going on ... Primer aside, the S -stream potency actually looks enough on this 18z, but the SPV fragment doesn't avail because it simple does not have time.. The S- stream impulse is half way to Nova Scotia by the time N - stream can respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol...congrats RIC. Dave is about to go bonkers and my local grocery store will soon be sold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 They think 3 years from now bears watching.... that made me lol! the anchor sitting next to me at the desk loves to tell me how accuweather said this and that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Dave is about to go bonkers and my local grocery store will soon be sold out. I would rather be in your shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Dave is about to go bonkers and my local grocery store will soon be sold out. Not to troll... but this could be one of those deals where the event was on and off for the SE, and painfully never an MA-SNE type thing ... you guys are all emotionally invested and stroked to no ends. But then suddenly it all comes together inside of 72 hours and it's the MA-SNE that get hammered, while you guys warm sector or get boned in general. NCEP did mention in their discussion today, and I pasted in here because I agree, ..this is probably going to be a short range model affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Notice the much weaker flow out west and the ridging over northern Quebec in 01. Otherwise ...if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Man, so close to being a massive storm for the Northeast. Just drop that SPV lobe south, and BOOM. Dang kicker Well, the 18z GFS kind of came towards the 12z GGEM and 12z Euro ENS...so it still bears a close watch down here. We may just luck out and get a nice rain changing to non-accumulating snow event here on the Cape. EDIT: I took cold medicine yesterday. I still cannot spell. Pretty sure CVS slipped me a mickey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Not to troll... but this could be one of those deals where the event was on and off for the SE, and painfully never an MA-SNE type thing ... you guys are all emotionally invested and stroked to no ends. But then suddenly it all comes together inside of 72 hours and it's the MA-SNE that get hammered, while you guys warm sector or get boned in general. NCEP did mention in their discussion today, and I pasted in here because I agree, ..this is probably going to be a short range model affair. No I completely understand. I've lived here long enough to see my fair share of disaster long-range modeling scenarios. There have been multiple instances, last December included, where global models have put RIC in the bullseye 4-5 days out only to reverse course and bring the low due north. I have always said that if this city was 50-100 miles west it would be an entirely different ballgame. BL issues are always a problem - looking at historical records, the only big coastals that were truly all-snow scenarios for the city proper include 1857 and 1940. Everything else, 1983 & 1996 included, had sustained periods of sleet. Just a little history lesson I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Not to troll... but this could be one of those deals where the event was on and off for the SE, and painfully never an MA-SNE type thing ... you guys are all emotionally invested and stroked to no ends. But then suddenly it all comes together inside of 72 hours and it's the MA-SNE that get hammered, while you guys warm sector or get boned in general. NCEP did mention in their discussion today, and I pasted in here because I agree, ..this is probably going to be a short range model affair. My experience is that in La Ninas in the absence of some sort of widespread arctic airmass over the NE suppression is somewhat unusual and northward bumps are more the rule. This setup does not really have that so I would agree unless the northern vort saves them, the MA is probably in trouble, at least the middle and southern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, srn stream systems and gulf lows are always one to watch..just for the latent heat machines that they become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 My experience is that in La Ninas in the absence of some sort of widespread arctic airmass over the NE suppression is somewhat unusual and northward bumps are more the rule. This setup does not really have that so I would agree unless the northern vort saves them, the MA is probably in trouble, at least the middle and southern parts. Haha, yeah...I stopped short of that for fear of catching back-fire lol. No I agrea... The NAO is not really that robustly negative... It seems the GFS is trying to have it both ways - if that makes an iota of sense. It wants to maintain S heights and then take storms on a -NAO course... If the S -stream ends up strong, it will roll out a S/W ridge in front of it to super impose on the SE height wall, and that would also feedback on forcing a NW track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The big issue that i see right now is that there are too many eggs in one basket. Is too early to say anything with this potential. The last one crapped the bed within 12h of the event starting due to a juiced southern s/w that we knew about but the models just could not figure out which one would become the dominant player. Outside the box, maybe the southern energy is the dominant player. But we than have to deal with the potential for a kicker behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The big issue that i see right now is that there are too many eggs in one basket. Is too early to say anything with this potential. The last one crapped the bed within 12h of the event starting due to a juiced southern s/w that we knew about but the models just could not figure out which one would become the dominant player. Outside the box, maybe the southern energy is the dominant player. But we than have to deal with the potential for a kicker behind. The kicker may screw us, but it's possible the outer edges get towards Phil. With any luck, it comes further nw...but it does have a limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The GEFS are a joke. They take a formidable low, and then break it apart as it moves east. That's crap. It may be OTS, but it will not weaken and fall apart..lol. It does go to show you how bad the spread is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The GEFS are a joke. They take a formidable low, and then break it apart as it moves east. That's crap. It may be OTS, but it will not weaken and fall apart..lol. It does go to show you how bad the spread is. Its probably convective feedback at work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The kicker may screw us, but it's possible the outer edges get towards Phil. With any luck, it comes further nw...but it does have a limit. Agreed. I'm not in any blockbuster storm mode here. Just monitoring the other all synoptics and pattern. The setup is about as good as we can get. The funny thing is that we may get screwed by the typical Nina behavior of too many s/w's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Agreed. I'm not in any blockbuster storm mode here. Just monitoring the other all synoptics and pattern. The setup is about as good as we can get. The funny thing is that we may get screwed by the typical Nina behavior of too many s/w's. Sam is right, it's close to something big, but lots of cooks in the kitchen right now. We'll see what 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.