wxsniss Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 like nails on a chalkboard.... why stop there.. maybe you can just use every cliche we have. "they always lose the storm at 5 days and bring it back" "eh - i don't want snow anyway" "bring on spring" "i bet the 18z GFS is a huge hit" "i'll wait til 00z - if that run fails, then i quit" "with those warm SSTs, this will tuck in closer" "someone said the JMA is still a HECS" "the models are terrible why do we even look at them" "i think this will be a nowcast event" "there's probably some convective feedback in there" "they always trend north" "i don't see how we suddenly get a whiff when everything else has been a cutter" "squirrels" Yeah, but what about the low over Idaho...it's 2mbs deeper than progged! buoy 41013 off north carolina just reported a 7 kts southeast wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phil, the pattern has gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You guys give up way too easily. Besides Scooter said big bomb, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles are more amped than the OP...still too far SE, but not as far SE as the OP...they probably take it from just E of HSE to about 200 miles SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles are more amped than the OP...still too far SE, but not as far SE as the OP...they probably take it from just E of HSE to about 200 miles SE of the BM. Thanks. How do they compare to the 00z ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thanks. How do they compare to the 00z ensembles? They are SE of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phil, the pattern has gotten to you. lol...nah the pattern sucks but it hasn't gotten to me. but it does get old reading the same kind of stuff over and over again. i'm just as guilty as anyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles are more amped than the OP...still too far SE, but not as far SE as the OP...they probably take it from just E of HSE to about 200 miles SE of the BM. how's the speed? does it still have that hang back in the isobars to the SW? on the 00z run that led me to believe that there might be some slower more amped runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro ensembles are more amped than the OP...still too far SE, but not as far SE as the OP...they probably take it from just E of HSE to about 200 miles SE of the BM. Exactly how much thicker are the cirrus clouds over New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I still wonder about tonight, both nam and gfs have measurable, dp here is 16 with decent slug of precip on the way, I know its not much but might be some coastings away from the coast, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I still wonder about tonight, both nam and gfs have measurable, dp here is 16 with decent slug of precip on the way, I know its not much but might be some coastings away from the coast, better than nothing. dream on-upton says maybe a sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol...nah the pattern sucks but it hasn't gotten to me. but it does get old reading the same kind of stuff over and over again. i'm just as guilty as anyone though. At least you've seen some accumulating snow recently. Besides the 3" from 1/21, I haven't seen more than a few flurries. And that's the truth. We're all suffering from DC to NYC to BOS and NNE. This wonter is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 dream on-upton says maybe a sprinkle. perhaps, radar looks ok, and upton just updated, rain snow showers down here, I certainly would not rule out coatings over the interior. Not a big deal, but any flakes are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 perhaps, radar looks ok, and upton just updated, rain snow showers down here, I certainly would not rule out coatings over the interior. Not a big deal, but any flakes are nice. There's another thread dedicated to this 'event'. plus, no one cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 5+ days away, 200 or so average mile error at that day.... Definitely write it off for everyone north of the VA Capes, it's locked in. Debbie downers. http://www.ecmwf.int..._revised_v6.pdf wind.mit.edu/~hansen/lorenz_symp/Shukla.ppt ^^^ great read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There's another thread dedicated to this 'event'. plus, no one cares There is a thread for this evening? Sorry about that did not see one, sorry to bother you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Look at the differences between the 12z Nam and 18z Nam .. 18z Nam is really holding back and digging the northern stream.. pretty laughable differences. 18z Nam looks good. Models are gonna have a tough time with these shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 perhaps, radar looks ok, and upton just updated, rain snow showers down here, I certainly would not rule out coatings over the interior. Not a big deal, but any flakes are nice. You definitely like snow more than anyone on the board, brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 how's the speed? does it still have that hang back in the isobars to the SW? on the 00z run that led me to believe that there might be some slower more amped runs. Yeah it looks like the speed varies some with isobars hanging back. Looking at the 500 spaghetti plots, there are a distinct group that are definitely amped up pretty big and then the majority of the others are not..probably like a 2/3rds to 1/3rd ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 5+ days away, 200 or so average mile error at that day.... Definitely write it off for everyone north of the VA Capes, it's locked in. Debbie downers. http://www.ecmwf.int..._revised_v6.pdf in a better / more active winter we wouldn't be so focused on stuff that's 5+ days out. if things were more "normal" we'd be talking about tonight and thur night and would hardly have the time to look to sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah it looks like the speed varies some with isobars hanging back. Looking at the 500 spaghetti plots, there are a distinct group that are definitely amped up pretty big and then the majority of the others are not..probably like a 2/3rds to 1/3rd ratio. thanks. "still 120+ hours out so lots can change" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 in a better / more active winter we wouldn't be so focused on stuff that's 5+ days out. if things were more "normal" we'd be talking about tonight and thur night and would hardly have the time to look to sunday. I know and I could care less either way about day 5, but I do think it's premature to right it off entirely particularly where we live. 150 miles in a good direction (from euro ens) puts is in the action...of course it could just as easily become a near miss to bermuda. The northern stream slowed in the later runs leading up to the last event. That took what was good timing and made it less favorable in the closing hours. We'll see how the models do as we cross into the less than 3 digit hour window. They'll probably bring it just close enough to tease before it ends up east in the last 24 hours again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah the ensembles were a little better looking than the op. I'd still keep an eye on it, especially se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah the ensembles were a little better looking than the op. I'd still keep an eye on it, especially se areas. Heh...the EC ens mean has the 0.25" contour up to the S Coast while the op is near ORF. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Heh...the EC ens mean has the 0.25" contour up to the S Coast while the op is near ORF. lol that's a pretty huge difference. i'm surprised they'd even have a very discernible .25" contour at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 accuweather seems to think this bears watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 accuweather seems to think this bears watching They think 3 years from now bears watching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You called it. You might want to consult a grammar book and dictionary though huh, what? Annnnyway - It does appear the NAM is bit underdone with the QPF off the 12z, and 18z for that matter, when comparing to the rad returns that should pass into the area tonight. NW PA and western NY are in steady action with bursts to moderate ...several hours worth. Meanwhile, these NAM runs are paltry. It'll be interesting to see the radar suddenly goo poof - and then recongeal just east of us... Also, the latter system ... I like the lighter gradient look to it. If you're looking to get a wintry event out of marginality, when dynamics are less than impressive, you want to have the gradients weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z GFS will be more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol...congrats RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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