weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:14 PM, CT Blizz said: If if if this was to hit looks like Sat nite into Sunday correct ? gfs has this as like a 9z Sunday to 03z Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hmm, sounds like a gfs ens/euroens/ukmet blend would work nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:14 PM, CT Blizz said: If if if this was to hit looks like Sat nite into Sunday correct ? More like sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 DT says throw out 18z gfs b/c it was based off the same data as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:17 PM, Dryslot said: More like sunday Anytime after 11z Sunday would do wonders for me lol I hope SNE gets slammed....after my plane takes off LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Jerry's crazy uncle may have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I've seen you guys talk about squirrles and geese and such in here before. Well, between yesterday and today I've seen flocks of probably hundreds flying south. First time all winter. Anyone think that means anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Decent chance folks. GFS may be onto something with other guidance coming in. GEFS are significantly improved vs 12Z. I am getting stoked. Better antecedent too. And remember, we can't see UKMET other than every 24 hours but I think it takes the low to just south of ACK and scoots east ala GFS. BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 15-20" here from the GFS....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:19 PM, weatherMA said: DT says throw out 18z gfs b/c it was based off the same data as 12z. He's at least in part right on that point though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Clown map will be hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:17 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Hmm, sounds like a gfs ens/euroens/ukmet blend would work nicely. I think this flops one way or the other tonight with the 0z. My guess is we see a big flip to the amplified solutions in the remaining models. s/ws are taking their time heading into BC it would appear. I think the Euro was off the range on that...maybe they didn't get the HPC flight data who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Think I'll go with Ch-8 in CT...."Two computer models say no snow, one says snow. I'm going with no snow, but we could get snow.....the one model says a nor'easter, so it could be, but I'm going with no snow. We have to watch this but right now I say no snow, but if that other model is right there could be snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:21 PM, weathafella said: He's at least in part right on that point though... No he's not. Radiosondes make up a very small percentage of the available data ingest each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:26 PM, am19psu said: No he's not. Radiosondes make up a very small percentage of the available data ingest each model run. Yeah what was true years ago isn't true today. The amount of remotely sensed data far outweighs radiosondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:24 PM, HighPressure said: Think I'll go with Ch-8 in CT...."Two computer models say no snow, one says snow. I'm going with no snow, but we could get snow.....the one model says a nor'easter, so it could be, but I'm going with no snow. We have to watch this but right now I say no snow, but if that other model is right there could be snow." I prefer to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Sadly I'm working early tomorrow at 3a so won't be up for 00z runs but can't wait to log on and see if dr no dashes our hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Low percentage chance of snow at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:29 PM, CT Rain said: I prefer to make a forecast. And it is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Wow at the GEFS...7 hits, 2 with mixing issues, 4 OTS and 1 scraper. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 A lot of good hits there on the GFS ensembles but you can still see a couple members that are just not even close...like 700-900 miles difference. It does show that the spread is still high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:32 PM, dendrite said: Better but still too much spread amongst models and too much leed time to get excited about this. Wait a couple days before hoisting the weenie flag or the white flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:32 PM, dendrite said: Impressive, and coming into better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Been a while since we saw models putting out porn like that... Still a long time to wait,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:36 PM, Hazey said: Better but still too much spread amongst models and too much leed time to get excited about this. Wait a couple days before hoisting the weenie flag or the white flag Probably wont have to wait 2 days, We will be inside 48 hrs as this threat is less then 96 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:45 PM, Dryslot said: Probably wont have to wait 2 days, We will be inside 48 hrs as this threat is less then 96 hrs out True but we've seen how things can fall apart inside 36hrs a plenty this winter. Just gotta keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z suite tonight will be close to final outcome as we will be about 48 hours away from "nowcasting" the storm and about 72 hours away from the start of the storm in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/15/2012 at 11:21 PM, weathafella said: He's at least in part right on that point though... Jerry, this isn't actually true.... There is new compliment for initializations for each individual run - as far as "density", I wouldn't be sure, but there is plenty of new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On 2/16/2012 at 12:04 AM, Hazey said: True but we've seen how things can fall apart inside 36hrs a plenty this winter. Just gotta keep expectations in check. I don't believe this one will be as difficult to figure out, My guess by 0z tomorow the latest, But caution flags should be used accordingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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